How voter mobilization from short text messages travels within households and families: Evidence from two nationwide field experiments

Through two large GOTV field experiments in two different elections, we investigate the spillover effect to other household members and family members outside the household. We mobilized young voters with cell phone text messages, a campaign tactic unlikely to be observed by other persons than the treated. The direct effect varied but approximately 30 percent spilled over to other persons in the household, even parents. The effects are subtle and we cannot with certainty establish that a spillover effect exists. However, we demonstrate, using Bayesian updating, that even an initial skeptic becomes close to convinced that the effect spills over. Our study provides evidence by suggesting that young individuals’ decision to vote affect other household members, including their parents, to do the same. When young voters live without their parents, we find no evidence of spillovers to parents, suggesting that households are more important than families ties for turnout contagion.     

网络监督的公共政治属性与建设路径

网络监督的兴起有现实需求、技术支持和制度政策基础。在社会转型期,面对腐败的高发和多变,以网络监督为核心生成的腐败治理意愿正是现阶段社会公众的政治需求。但是,网络监督对腐败治理具有双重效应。因此,为有效治理腐败,优化网络监督,要抑制其负面效应,强化网络监督的公共政治属性,培育网络主体理性参与精神;要激励实名举报,建立实名举报保护机制;要优化官民合作机制,建立腐败线索收集、整理和反馈机制。     

Partisan consequences of low turnout at elections to the European Parliament

Low turnout and potential differences in party preferences between voters and non-voters may affect party vote shares at European Parliament (EP) elections. Of particular concern is the rise of Eurosceptic and populist parties, but scholars do not know whether these would benefit from increased voter mobilization. To address this gap, we simulate the party choices of non-voters at the 2009 and 2014 EP elections. Contrary to analyses of turnout effects at general elections in multiparty systems, our simulations suggest that left-leaning and ideologically moderate parties would gain if turnout went up to levels observed at first-order national elections. And while there is some evidence that populist parties might have benefitted from higher turnout at the 2014 elections (but not in 2009), our findings do not support expectations that either Eurosceptic or Europhile parties’ vote share would be affected by higher turnout.     

“垄断福利”的负面效应与治理路向

"垄断福利"本质上也是一种腐败。"垄断福利"现象的滋生、蔓延与扩散,造成了系列的负面效应,扭曲了资源的合理配置,影响了社会的公平正义,加剧了社会的矛盾集聚,阻碍了和谐社会的进程。要彻底遏制和消除"垄断福利"腐败,必须从根源上找寻破解之道,治理必须从垄断本身切入,标本兼治,强化监督,注重长效。一是追本溯源,深入探析"垄断福利"的滋生机理;二是引入竞争,彻底铲除"垄断福利"的生存土壤;三是多管齐下,全面建构"垄断福利"的监管机制。     

DO NEIGHBORHOODS GENERATE FEAR OF CRIME? AN EMPIRICAL TEST USING THE BRITISH CRIME SURVEY*

For a long time, criminologists have contended that neighborhoods are important determinants of how individuals perceive their risk of criminal victimization. Yet, despite the theoretical importance and policy relevance of these claims, the empirical evidence base is surprisingly thin and inconsistent. Drawing on data from a national probability sample of individuals, linked to independent measures of neighborhood demographic characteristics, visual signs of physical disorder, and reported crime, we test four hypotheses about the mechanisms through which neighborhoods influence fear of crime. Our large sample size, analytical approach, and the independence of our empirical measures enable us to overcome some of the limitations that have hampered much previous research into this question. We find that neighborhood structural characteristics, visual signs of disorder, and recorded crime all have direct and independent effects on individual‐level fear of crime. Additionally, we demonstrate that individual differences in fear of crime are strongly moderated by neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics; between‐group differences in expressed fear of crime are both exacerbated and ameliorated by the characteristics of the areas in which people live.     

刑事附带民事诉讼案件调解方法的思考

在审理刑事附带民事诉讼案件时,坚持在严惩罪犯的同时,充分利用法律赋予的调解职能,围绕刑事诉讼这一主线,克服就案办案思想,积极调解,使刑事责任和民事责任相容相济,通过调解使二者在法律与情理上得到互补,从而达到被告人服判、被害人息诉的良好效果。从近年来的司法实践看,初犯、过失犯、未成年犯等刑事案件和邻里纠纷引发的刑事案件也不在少数,通常像这类犯罪,被告人和被害人没有太深的过节,被告人愿意通过赔偿希望得到从宽处理,而被害人也愿意得到经济上的赔偿,谅解     

From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2010 British general election

This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.     

The dynamic properties of individual-level party identification in the United States

Central to traditionalist and revisionist perspectives of individual-level party identification is a debate about the stability of party identification. We revisit the debate about the dynamic properties and processes underlying party identification. We present a conceptual framework that defines heterogeneity and state dependence as endpoints of a continuum underlying partisan stability, which is important in understanding an individual’s capacity for updating partisanship. Using panel data from the 1992-1996 National Election Study, we estimate dynamic, random effects multinomial logit models of party identification that distinguish between heterogeneity and “true state dependence.” In accord with traditionalist perspectives, our evidence suggests that in general, minimal state dependence underlies party identification; party identification is strongly stationary. However, we find that age enhances the magnitude of state dependence, which provides some support for revisionist theories. Overall, our work showcases how explaining individual-level dynamics expands our knowledge of partisan stability.     

Electoral institutions and campaigning in comparative perspective: Electioneering in European Parliament elections

This article develops and tests a number of competing expectations (institutional, party and individual) about what influenced the campaign activity of individual parliamentary candidates for the 2004 European Parliament elections. The principal interest is in the effects of variations in the design of electoral institutions across the Member States of the European Union. Based on the analysis, it is argued that an important distinction needs to be made between campaign effort and campaign goals, with electoral institutional factors having a more significant role over the latter.     

Racial composition,sentencing reforms,and rates of incarceration, 1970–1980

Association with delinquent peer groups is one of the most salient predictors of delinquent behavior. Despite the widespread documentation of these effects, little is known about whether the delinquent peer effect is conditioned by individual‐level characteristics. Using data from a multi‐wave survey of Mexican‐American adolescents, this study explored the interactive effect of susceptibility to peer influence and differential association with delinquent peers on delinquent outcomes. Results suggested that the delinquent peer effect on self‐reported delinquency is amplified when an adolescent is highly susceptible to peer influence. Analyses also indicated that this moderating effect varies according to offense seriousness. Specifically, the conditioning effect is most important when considering acts of serious delinquency.