试论突发公共事件管理应对能力

突发公共事件严重威胁公众的生命健康和财产安全,影响经济发展和社会稳定。现代政府必须全面增强应对突发公共事件的能力,当危机爆发时尽量减少危机带来的损失,将危机消灭在萌芽状态。我国政府在长期应对突发公共事件的过程中积累了一些经验,但也存在许多问题和不足,须从预警、决策、社会力量动员等九个方面提高应对突发公共事件的能力。     

试析土耳其文官政治与军人政治的博弈——基于正义与发展党的执政实践

军人在土耳其历史文化中占据重要地位,曾经通过3次军事政变推翻民选政府,并通过还政文官政府使土耳其沿着凯末尔主义的方向前进。正义与发展党上台后,尽管文官政府和军方极力维持脆弱的平衡关系,但双方在权力争夺、加入欧盟、库尔德问题、复兴伊斯兰文化等方面分歧重重,争端不断。文官政治和军人政治博弈的结果说明了土耳其的军人政治逐渐让步于文官政治,军人干政在可预见的将来很难再发生;尽管世俗主义和伊斯兰主义之间的斗争仍很激烈,但已逐渐趋于理性;正义与发展党"保守的民主"模式获得民众的普遍认可,将为中东诸国提供一种民主发展的范式。     

金正恩时代起航及其展望

自2011年末金正日病逝至今,金正恩接掌朝鲜政权时间已过半年。在这半年时间里,朝鲜政局基本稳定,金正恩通过"三步曲"接掌朝鲜最高权力,并开始履行国家最高领导权;外交方面,金正恩也展现出比以前更加积极的姿态,呈现出远交近攻之特点;经济发展方面,朝鲜已进入缓慢的复苏之中。总的来说,现今朝鲜的国情远比金正日时代开启之初的情况好得多。执政半年里金正恩处变不惊,措施得当:行孝道以取民心;造时势以立英雄;承祖训以示正统。当前,朝鲜已来到一个十字路口:朝鲜想怎么走,应该怎么走,能怎么走,引人关注。笔者认为,金正恩政权的使命是注重发展,解决民生问题;对其未来发展,给出了三阶段时间表与路线图予以描绘。     

“梅普”时期的俄罗斯经济:形势、政策、成就及问题

2012年3月4日,俄罗斯举行总统大选,普京再次当选俄罗斯总统,"梅普组合"这个在俄罗斯特殊历史条件下形成的权力配置形式完成其历史使命。2012年,俄罗斯经济在经历了国际金融危机之后,国民经济又回到2008年的水平。此时,我们对"梅普组合"时期俄罗斯经济发展状况、经济发展政策及战略进行系统地梳理和回顾,在此基础上对俄罗斯经济的发展水平及发展脉络做出客观的判断,进而对该时期经济发展中存在的问题进行深入剖析,并对俄罗斯经济未来发展方向做出预测。     

美国重返亚洲对中国东亚地区FTA战略的影响——基于TPP合作视角的分析

美国通过加入TPP从实质上确立了"重返亚洲"的全球战略调整,在更大程度上加快了对亚太地区经济一体化进程的干涉。美国主导下的TPP对东亚区域经济合作机制的发展产生了重要影响,也给中国的整体和局部FTA战略带来了诸多的不确定性和挑战。中国必须正确认识美国在东亚地区的经济战略转变以及TPP扩张带来的潜在影响,在此基础上对FTA战略做出合理的调整。中国的FTA战略重心仍应保留在东亚地区,提高国内企业对FTA的利用率,同时跟踪研究TPP的最新进展,为以后加入TPP谈判做好相应的准备工作。     

The Impact of EU-based Populism on Turkey-EU Relations

ABSTRACT

The May 2019 EP elections once again highlighted the current cultural backlash throughout Europe against progressive values such as cosmopolitanism and multiculturalism, which impacts on the ‘future of Europe’ debate, raising important questions for the evolution of Turkey-EU relations. Even though Turkey is no longer a hot topic in EU political parlance and public opinion, opposition to Turkish EU membership continues in the form of nativism, particularly with reference to the issues of immigration and Islam, as the cases of AfD in Germany and UKIP in Britain show.     

A Prototype of Mathematical Treatment of Pen Pressure Data for Signature Verification

A prototype using simple mathematical treatment of the pen pressure data recorded by a digital pen movement recording device was derived. In this study, a total of 48 sets of signature and initial specimens were collected. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to compare the data of the pen pressure patterns. From the 820 pair comparisons of the 48 sets of genuine signatures, a high degree of matching was found in which 95.4% (782 pairs) and 80% (656 pairs) had rPA > 0.7 and rPA > 0.8, respectively. In the comparison of the 23 forged signatures with their corresponding control signatures, 20 of them (89.2% of pairs) had rPA values < 0.6, showing a lower degree of matching when compared with the results of the genuine signatures. The prototype could be used as a complementary technique to improve the objectivity of signature examination and also has a good potential to be developed as a tool for automated signature identification.     

党领导立法的规范分析与完善路径

在规范分析层面,党领导立法的语境是在党的机构和全国人大及其常委会产生之后的事情。我国现行《宪法》的制定开启了党领导立法的话语和实践探索。经由对党的规范性文件的分析,党领导立法的特点和规律得以突显。这些特点包括重申党领导立法必须坚持的原则不变;党领导立法的结构体系和格局更加具体;党领导立法的工作思路的变化为完善党的领导勾勒了基本路径。党要引领民主立法、科学立法和依法立法的方向;同时支持人大在立法中发挥主导作用。     

Police officer attitudes to the practicalities of the sex offenders’ register,ViSOR and Child Sexual Abuse Disclosure Scheme in England and Wales

This paper examines police officer understandings of and attitudes to the sex offenders’ register, Violent and Sex Offenders’ Register (ViSOR) and Child Sexual Offender Disclosure Scheme (CSODS) in England and Wales – an under-researched area in the management of sexual offenders in the UK. This research is an adaptation of an American study utilising a mixed-methods approach, combining an online questionnaire survey (N?=?227) with a series of semi-structured interviews (N?=?27). The study found that police officers, irrespective of role, were generally supportive of the register, ViSOR and CSODS in principle, but they thought that logistics, practicalities, infrastructure, multi-agency collaboration and public understandings had problematic impacts on the scheme in practice. The participants believed that greater investment was needed in terms of time and resource to make the register, ViSOR and CSODS easier to use and access and thus fit for purpose.     

Transferring custody from birth parents to foster parents – an ambiguous matter

In this study, we analyse 32 district court decisions regarding custody transfers from the birth parents to the foster parents in Sweden. When a child has been in foster care for three years, in order to enhance stability for child, the local social welfare committee considers a transferral of custody to the foster parents following an application to the district court. Although all but one of the decisions in our study favoured a custody transfer, the courts acknowledge different reasons for this. Specifically, there is vagueness about whether or not functioning contact between the child and birth parents is a hindrance in custody transfer. Our findings stress the need for clarification in the law regarding the criteria for custody transfer in order to reach a more unified judgment. Furthermore, the district courts do not sufficiently acknowledge children’s views, and we suggest that children and young people should be made more visible in the decision-making process.