Who moves? Elite and mass-level depolarization in Britain, 1987–2001

Over the past two decades the British Labour and Conservative parties have depolarized on economic and social welfare policy, at both the elite and mass levels. We ask the question: Does mass-level depolarization in Britain extend throughout the electorate, or is it confined primarily to the stratum of affluent, educated, and politically engaged citizens? We report longitudinal analyses of British Election Study respondents' policy beliefs and partisan loyalties over the period 1987–2001, and find that depolarization extends across all subgroups in the electorate, as do perceptions of elite depolarization. These effects are (moderately) more pronounced among the electoral subgroups of highly educated, affluent, and politically informed citizens. The findings have important implications for elite representation of voters' policy preferences, and for differences in representation patterns between Britain and the United States.     

Negative voting and party polarization: A classic tragedy

Elections around the globe attest to the persistence of polarization in democratic politics. Popular support for antagonistic elite strategies defies standard predictions of ideological convergence. This paper develops a new solution to the theoretical puzzle: The centrifugal drive in representative democracy is a byproduct of voters’ disposition to evaluate policy platforms on the basis of issue positions that they dislike—to wit, negative voting. While reasonable individually, this behavior backfires collectively as elections dominated by negativity produce more polarized legislatures. Quite tragically, party polarization ultimately reflects an uncoordinated struggle of the electorate to avoid the worst rather than to pursue the best. Support for these claims comes from a theoretical model and a large comparative analysis of vote choice and party platforms. The evidence also favors the negativity model over earlier spatial models of elections. In light of negativity, normative concerns about polarization and democratic representation stand to be reconsidered.     

The conditioning role of polarization in U.S. senate election outcomes: A direct-election era & voter-level analysis

Recent work finds that a decline in the incumbency advantage coincides with the rise of partisanship as a determinant of congressional electoral outcomes. While this work updates our view of congressional elections, it is unclear if this holds in the more candidate-centered and high-information electoral context of the U.S. Senate. In this paper, I address these two considerations by evaluating a theory positing that polarization conditions the influence of incumbency and partisanship as Senate election determinants. Using data on the entire direct-election Senate era and survey data, this paper finds that: (1) polarization provides a partisan advantage for candidates running in states in which they are members of the partisan majority and (2) polarization positively conditions the incumbency advantage for Senators representing states that favor the other party. These findings suggest that Senators may still successfully cultivate a personal brand in the face of growing ideological differences between the parties.     

妥协:一种有效的利益整合机制——基于阶层利益矛盾、冲突的思考

经济体制改革和政治体制改革必然带来阶层分化,随着不同阶层及其成员在收入分配上的差距的扩大,阶层间的利益矛盾和冲突随之产生。阶层间的矛盾、冲突源于利益差异,“妥协”则是一种有效的协调和化解阶层利益矛盾和冲突的整合机制。深入探讨阶层间的利益妥协,对于进一步推进改革与和谐社会建设具有重要的理论和实践意义。     

Politician hate speech and domestic terrorism

ABSTRACT

Does hate speech – rhetoric that targets, vilifies or is intended to intimidate minorities and other groups in society – fuel domestic terrorism? This question is, unfortunately, relevant given the convergence of the use of hate speech by political figures and domestic terrorist incidents in a variety of countries, including the United States. In this study I theorize that hate speech by politicians deepens political polarization and that this, in turn, produces conditions under which domestic terrorism increases. I test this proposition using terrorism and hate speech data for 135 to 163 countries for the period 2000 to 2017. I produce two findings. First, hate speech by political figures boosts domestic terrorism. Second, the impact of political hate speech on domestic terrorism is mediated through increased political polarization.     

贫困地区农村社会经济分化研究

在现阶段,贫困农村地区的社会经济分化广泛而深刻。这种分化不仅表现为较大的收入分配差距,也表现为许多重要家庭社会经济特征的差异化。收入分化是贫困地区农户社会经济分化的核心表现,不同的收入来源,不同的家庭社会经济特征,都对家庭收入的不平等产生了程度不同的影响,但依赖劳动力数量的增加来实现收入增长的趋势仍很明显。     

Globalized fears,localized securities: ‘Terrorism’ in political polarization in a one-party state

Partisanship has become the dominant ideological incentive to political polarization. Likewise, the analytical association between polarization and the party system in electoral democracies has focused, in most of the existing literature, on political polarization, leaving aside authoritarian or semi-authoritarian contexts where a fair multi-party election is absent or dysfunctional. By collecting and analyzing online posts about international terrorism from Sina Weibo in China, between January 2011 and December 2016, this study proves the existence of opinion polarization on terrorism in China's digital media sphere. By categorizing the findings into two camps, ‘global war on terror discourse’ and ‘anti-imperialist narrative’, the study elucidates these polarized attitudes in terms of their acceptance, denial and decomposition of the global discourse of fears about terrorism. Drawing on our case study, the study then proposes an alternative explanation for the motivation/driver of mass polarization in digitally networked communication in China, identified as the effect of globalization and localization.     

市场经济与可持续发展

将可持续内容进行细致分类,并分析不可持续产生的根源,是制定社会发展政策的依据。市场经济条件下选择适当的增长方式是可持续发展的必然要求。因此,必须以国家为主体,行使强制手段,如征税、额外付费方式加以控制。同时应改变“先污染,后治理”的经济发展模式。     

试论台湾社会分歧嬗变对政党政治的影响

社会分歧是政党政治分析的重要概念,对台湾政党政治生态及其变迁具有较强的解释力。台湾社会分歧的基本结构决定了主要政党的基本行为取向,同时台湾的社会分歧正在经历一个解构与重构的过程,整体上看社会分歧呈现出碎片化倾向,这种趋势对台湾的政党政治基本走向会产生重要影响。