新思想库与奥巴马政府的亚洲政策决策——以新美国安全研究中心为例

在美国对外政策决策体系中,思想库在政策理念创新、人才储备、打造政策辩论平台以及教育和引导公众等方面具有非凡的作用。新近兴起的新美国安全研究中心对奥巴马政府的对外政策影响巨大。该中心的亚洲政策研究强调务实的态度,注重美国对亚洲事务的重新"参与",倡导强化和升级美国在亚洲的联盟关系,推动美国积极介入地区多边制度,其政策建议通过"旋转门制度"等对当前美国的亚洲政策决策产生了深刻影响。     

试论中日关系的新向度——以前首相福田康夫对中外交遗产为中心

近年来,从小泉、安倍、再到福田,日本政府都非常重视构成两国关系之潜流的精神和价值理念领域。特别是前首相福田转变了小泉和安倍的"价值本位"外交方向,并从"回归古典"着手,力图通过重构中日两国的精神、价值大厦,使中日关系不仅仅是一种利益、利害关系的存在,而是建立在双方共同理解、追求并能够互相接受的价值阈值的基础之上。这样,中日关系才可能从根本上克服其脆弱性的一面,从而走得更远。而中日两国在第四个政治文件中就此所达成的共识,即为实现这一目标的"新向度"。无疑这是前首相福田对中外交的重要遗产。     

The coordinate plane of global governance

The ‘coordinate plane of global governance’ developed in this paper describes the trade-off between static gains and dynamic losses associated with international policy harmonization. A simple model illustrates how potential gains result from producing positive international spill-overs, whereas potential losses come from restricted systems competition between national policy regimes. The solution to this model allows identifying the cut-off level between policies suitable for global harmonization and policies which should better not be centralized. An application of the concept to selected policy fields illustrates its relevance for decision-making on global governance.

The use and non-use of policy appraisal tools in public policy making: an analysis of three European countries and the European Union

The increasing complexity of policy problems, coupled with the political desire to base new policies on the foundation of firm evidence, has accelerated the development of policy assessment tools. These range from complex computer models and cost benefit analysis through simple checklists and decision trees. In the last decade, many governments have established formal policy assessment systems to harness these tools in order to facilitate more evidence-based policy making. These tools are potentially widely available, but to what extent are they used by policy makers and what becomes of the evidence that they generate? This paper addresses these questions by studying the empirical patterns of tool use across 37 cases in three European countries and the European Commission. It uses a simple classification of tools into advanced, formal and simple types. It finds that even when tools are embedded in policy assessment systems, their use is differentiated and on the whole very limited, in particular when it comes to more advanced tools. It then explores these patterns from contrasting theoretical perspectives to shed light on why, when and how different policy assessment tools are used in the policy process.     

公共政策创新的因素分析——以《上海市政府信息公开规定》为例

随着施政的生态环境加速变迁,政府必须以创新公共政策的方式予以应对。但政府创新公共政策的内在因素是什么呢?已有的文献不仅局限于美国的政策生态,而且以计量方式考察经济、政治和社会因素,忽视了其中大量难以计量以及需要整合考察的因素。在一个融合条件(资源和要素、政治架构、现有制度和政策及社会文化)和机制(学习机制、决策机制、执行机制、激励机制和评价机制)的综合模型指导下,以分析性叙事的方法,具体考察上海市创新政府信息公开制度的内在因素。分析案例表明,尽管上海在条件和机制上都非常充分的情况下,也还必须融合各种条件和机制才能解释创新的出现及其有效运行。     

Environmental Stressors and Food Security in China

This article considers the immediate forces influencing China’s food system and food security. By immediate is meant events of the reform period, from the late 1970s to 2008. It begins by asking the question that has preoccupied specialists since the publication of Lester Brown’s Who Will Feed China? in 1995: How much arable land does China have? Is that land area sufficient to insure grain sufficiency? To insure food security? The article focuses on the human pressures on the food production environment, and then treats the effects of socioeconomic change: land, air, and water degradation. The core of the article examines six responses of the state to both perceived and actual environmental stressors: policy restricting arable land conversion, China’s one-child policy, investment in irrigation systems, the South–North Water Diversion Project, large-scale afforestation and reforestation campaigns, and the program to convert marginal agricultural lands to forests and grasslands.     

马英九“软实力”思想评析

在马英九以大陆为主要对象的“国家安全政策”中,“软实力”是一个十分重要的概念。他企图以政治价值观的漫洇,推动大陆民主化;以文化、教育理念的扩散,输出价值观;以“活路外交”塑造“民主台湾”、“文化台湾”的形象,最终达到对大陆实施“软制约”、“软制衡”的目标。虽然,由于岛内外种种原因的限制,马英九的“软实力”思想尚未对大陆产生明显的影响力,但这一切是在“没有硝烟的战场”上实施的,应引起我们足够的重视。     

第一代独生子女婚姻生育选择及对未来人口和家庭结构的影响——兼与庄渝霞商榷生育政策调整的可行性

随着第一代独生子女进入婚育年龄,产生大量的双独家庭、单独家庭,不同家庭类型的变化将引起政策生育率自然回升,如果考虑到有部分家庭放弃生育二孩,则意愿生育率会低于政策生育率。本文从独生子女婚育选择的角度出发,使用相关调查数据分析,发现由双独家庭所产生"4-2-1"家庭的数目受政策微调生育的影响较小,政策微调可以大幅度降低一孩家庭的比例,二孩家庭比例的增加无疑会降低家庭风险,且不会大规模地增加出生人口数量,因此,中国应当对生育政策进行微调,增强人口结构的合理性。     

青年的政策觉识与支持老年父母的关系:一项香港与上海的比较研究

这项研究探讨香港与上海两地青年的公共政策或社会责任、子孙或家庭责任、个人责任的觉识对其照顾、接纳和承担照顾父母的意愿的效应.研究结果显示:(1)对政府或社会的养老政策责任的觉识愈高者则照顾父母的意愿明显地愈高;然而,对老年人的自立生活具愈高的觉识者,其照顾父母的意愿却愈低;(2)对倡导尊敬老年人的觉识愈高和对老年人的自立生活的觉识愈低者,其接纳照顾父母的意愿愈高;(3)对政府责任的觉识愈高者和对个人责任的觉识愈低者,其承担照顾父母的意愿愈高.文章同时就倡导两地照顾或供养父母的政策启示进行讨论.     

Conditioned Networking: Swiss–EU Relations in Transport

This article addresses the structural characteristics of the interactions between Switzerland and the EU in the transport sector, i.e. transport by air and land. More precisely, it is focused on two different aspects of this relationship: first the modes of coordination between Switzerland and the EU according to the concept of external governance and, second, those conditions that make inclusive patterns of interaction more likely. The central finding of this case study is an expansion of both the regulatory and organisational boundary in both cases. This shift finds expression in the incorporation of Swiss actors into a variety of networks that, at least in some cases, allow Swiss actors to shape EU policy making. The actual patterns of interaction are influenced by a number of factors, including the type of governance inside the EU that facilitates the inclusion of third parties in EU external governance and the problem structure that is characterized by coordination rather than enforcement problems.