Direct Democracy and Political Trust: Enhancing Trust,Initiating Distrust–or Both?

This study investigates the relationship between direct democracy and political trust. We suggest a solution to the controversy in research centering on positive versus negative effects of direct democracy by analytically differentiating between the availability of direct democratic rights and the actual use of those rights. Theoretically, greater availability of direct democratic rights may enhance political trust by increasing citizens' perception that political authorities can be controlled as well as by incentivizing political authorities to act trustworthily. In contrast, the actual use of the corresponding direct democratic instruments may initiate distrust as it signals to citizens that political authorities do not act in the public's interest. We test both hypotheses for the very first time with sub‐national data of Switzerland. The empirical results seem to support our theoretical arguments.     

美国对台湾“政治安排”的政策及影响

美国对台湾“政治安排”的政策对“合情合理安排两岸政治关系”有重要影响。美国对台湾政治定位的政策是“认知到台湾是中国的一部分”,不支持“台独”或“两个中国”,但同时又“对台湾地位不持立场”。在两岸关系的解决方式方面,美国对台湾的前途持开放立场,但认为应透过对话和平解决,且要尊重两岸民众的意愿。美国这一政策增加了对统一前两岸政治关系做出“合情合理安排”的难度,但在某些方面与大陆对台政策也有一致性。目前,两岸应充分利用这些相契合的政策,推进两岸政治关系做出“合情合理”安排。     

两岸经济合作的政治效应问题探讨

推进两岸经济合作与一体化发展,形成日益紧密的经济共同体,可以巩固和深化两岸关系和平发展的经济基础,有助于推进两岸和平统一,但并非两岸和平统一的充分条件。而且,发挥两岸经济关系对两岸和平统一的促进作用需要相应的主客观条件,至少需要两岸双方的共同政治意愿与积极行动,以便在共同利益不断增进的基础上建构国家认同。民调显示,近年来的两岸经济合作,在“反独”中起到一定的积极作用,但因施行时间较短且尚未充分展开等因素而不足以证实或证伪其在“促统”方面的作用,并面临制约因素。而国家认同的形成,乃是两岸和平统一的关键。因此,必须确立正确的合作理念,坚持特定的推进原则,选择适宜的推进方式,以提升两岸经济合作的政治效应。     

台湾的大学生对《两岸服务贸易协议》的看法

2014年3月18日,台湾的学生以及社会团体因为反对两岸服贸协议,进而占领“立法院”,并发起一连串的示威与抗议活动。本研究运用定群追踪数据,以网络民调方式访问台湾地区大三的学生对两岸服贸协议的看法。初步发现：大学生对于服贸协议的态度,受到其政党倾向、统“独”立场以及“台湾人认同”的影响。不过,本研究运用政治情绪的测量也发现：台湾的大学生对于台湾的愤怒与对中国大陆的愤怒,让他们反对两岸服贸协议,但当他们对中国大陆抱持希望时,仍然支持两岸服贸协议。因此,中国大陆的崛起及繁荣与发展,既让台湾的大学生对于台湾的现况感到愤怒,确也对中国大陆充满憧憬。     

印尼华人与2014 年印尼大选

1998年以来印尼华人积极参政,至今已成为印尼政治发展的一股重要力量。2014年印尼大选,华人选民受到印尼主要政党的高度重视,不仅纷纷派出华人候选人,个别政党还邀请华人搭档竞选总统副总统。华人积极参与国会选举,成绩显著,广大华人选民倾力支持的佐科维成功当选总统,凸显了华人选票的影响力。在印尼不断推进政治民主和族群和谐的大环境中,印尼华人参政的良好势头,将持续发展。     

社会中的马来西亚国家:意象与实践

本文旨在以第13届国会选举之后马来西亚政治、经济、社会诸领域的状况为主要依据,对作为意象的马来西亚国家和作为实践的马来西亚国家进行考察,进而展开以下两方面的论证:(1)马来西亚国家各组成部分的实践过程如何形塑着马来西亚国家的主导原则与主导功能;(2)马来西亚国家建构与政治制度化的不足及其出路。     

从泰国军人干政看发展中国家政治制度危机

军事政变不仅是一种军事行动,更是一种政治行动.本文试图通过对泰国军事政变的分析,探讨在发展中国家军人干政的原理.本文认为,政变的发生取决于一个国家的社会结构因素和政治制度因素,其中政治参与的无序化与领导人退出机制的不完善是引发军事政变的最重要原因.虽然军人干政在历史上曾经起过积极作用,但在现代社会,军人干政已经不适应甚至危害民主政治的发展.为解决这个问题,发展中国家应该从调整社会结构、扩大政治参与和提升政治制度化水平等三个方面持续地付出努力.     

Political Finance Regimes in Southeast Asia: Introduction

ABSTRACT

The three articles in this themed collection investigate the interplay between political finance regimes and the quality of democracy in Southeast Asia. Andreas Ufen's piece on political finance in Malaysia and Singapore argues that the semi-authoritarian regimes in both states have blocked the reform of campaign and party funding regulations in order to keep their opposition in check. The article on Indonesia, authored by Marcus Mietzner, showcases the country's dysfunctional political finance system as a major hurdle toward further democratization. In their contribution on Thailand, Napisa Waitoolkiat and Paul Chambers show that weak political finance regulations have contributed significantly to the shallowness of Thai parties. Overall, the collection demonstrates that without meaningful political finance reforms, Southeast Asia's democratic stagnation is likely to persist for many years to come.     

The electoral impact of the financial crisis: Evidence using district-level data

Do economic downturns increase voter support for left or right parties? In our empirical analysis, we combine fine-grained registry-data on the labor market impact of the crisis and how it varied across 5000 electoral districts, with district-level data on vote-shares for all major parties in Swedish parliamentary elections before and after the crisis. Because the impact was so diverse across districts, we can estimate the electoral impact of unemployment more efficiently than usual. Moreover, because the crisis was an external and unexpected shock to the Swedish economy, we argue that the selection bias that is usually inherent in estimating the electoral impact of unemployment is mitigated. We find that the electoral impact of crisis-induced unemployment was large, benefiting right parties.     

Don't call me a populist! The meaning of populism for western European parties and politicians

In recent years a common understanding of the core elements of populist communication has been achieved in academia. Yet, we know less about how the term populism is used by political parties themselves, despite widespread assumptions about the use of populism as a battle term to disqualify competitors. Based on a quantitative and qualitative content analysis of Twitter content from mainstream and populist actors in six western European countries, this study finds that populism is indeed used by mainstream parties in a pejorative way in order to label political competitors. Yet, not only populist but also mainstream competitors are labeled populist by the center parties linking a variety of different negative meanings to the term, which are often of a less demonizing nature not questioning the legitimacy of others. Populists in Italy and France refer to the term in a positive way, while Spanish and German populists rather reject the label.