Elections and political change in post-war Bosnia and Herzegovina

This article examines attempts to use electoral politics to promote substantive political change in post-war Bosnia and Herzegovina. Since 1990 elections have been a key part of virtually all negotiated agreements to end civil wars. The utility of democracy for building peace is often asserted but rarely backed with long-term commitment and resources on the ground. Bosnia since 1996 is a rare exception. There, international actors sought not only to establish a democratic political system but to use electoral democracy as a tool with which to transform the nature of politics in Bosnia in short order. This article focuses on efforts to shape the development of political parties and the party system, assesses the degree to which it has succeeded and examines the broader implications of Bosnia's experience for other state-building efforts of its kind.     

Political culture in Turkey: Connections among attitudes toward democracy,the military and Islam

Against the background of Turkey's continuing but unconsolidated democratic transition, this article examines the nature and determinants of attitudes toward democracy held by ordinary Turkish citizens. Using data from the World Values Survey conducted in Turkey in 1997, it seeks to contribute to a growing body of literature concerned with the relationship between political culture and democratization. Although this relationship has not been fully explicated, the authors share the view of those scholars who believe that the existence of democratic attitudes and values among a country's population is no less important than are democratic institutions and procedures for advancing and eventually consolidating a democratic transition. Accordingly, the study seeks to shed light on the following interrelated questions: To what extent does the Turkish population hold attitudes supportive of democracy? What are the most important determinants of popular support for democracy? What factors account for any observed variance in relevant political attitudes? What is the relationship between attitudes toward the military and attitudes toward democracy and governance? What is the relationship between personal religious attachments and attitudes toward democracy and governance?     

Democratisation in Indonesia: From Transition to Consolidation

Abstract

Despite many pessimistic expectations, the democratisation process in Indonesia has been progressing steadily over the past decade. The Indonesian political elite has crafted and stabilised a political transition mainly characterised by frequent, free and fair elections, peaceful rotations of power, effective elected officials and separation of powers, inclusive suffrage, freedom of expression, independence of the media and associational autonomy. In other words, within one decade, Indonesia has developed the main attributes of a democratic country, according to most theories of procedural democracy. However, the extent to which Indonesian democracy has been consolidated and institutionalised is another issue, which requires close examination and assessment. Does the Indonesian democracy fulfil or approximate the criteria stipulated by theorists of democratic consolidation? This article investigates the extent to which Indonesia has managed to advance its democratic transition and evaluates the prospects and challenges of democratic consolidation. In general, the article asserts that despite the persistence of a number of shortcomings, the steady progress of the Indonesian democratisation process and the consistent commitment of the principal political actors to the democratic rules of the game will likely lead to more institutionalised, policy-driven party politics and a gradual democratic consolidation in the foreseeable future.     

The Political Economy of Familial Relations: The Japanese State and Families in a Changing Political Economy

This article explores the ongoing negotiation over the boundaries between the world of political economy and families by analysing the reactions and responses of the Japanese government and feminists to changes in the political economy as well as popular patterns of family forming since the 1990s. This negotiation has occurred through the transition in the political economy brought about by globalisation and neo-liberal political reforms, and the re-calibration of family and gender roles has emerged as its primary ground. As a result, Japanese women are being required to make a hasty leap from the Fordist model of family life to a more self-steering idea of the individual. This ineluctably re-calibrates the bio-political arrangement into a more advanced mechanism, while discussion of the ‘ethics of care’ has been left relatively absent. Taking up these issues, this article discusses the implications of a changing political economy on Japanese families.     

Facilitative Mayors in Complex Environments: Why Political Will Matters

Under certain circumstances the style of leadership of mayors can be the result of their context perceptions and their sense of political autonomy and efficacy. This assessment indicates that the political action of the mayor discloses a particular style of leadership that derives from his/her political will. This article suggests an analysis of political will that intends to explain why local leaders adopt facilitative styles of leadership. In this formulation, the leadership facilitative style is a consequence of the political will to act accordingly, and this is explained by three main determinants: the leaders’ awareness of their complex and networked context, their independent sense of autonomy and their belief about their own political efficacy. Results from case studies, with extensive interviews with mayors, conducted in Portuguese municipalities, will be presented to reinforce and explore these hypotheses and to discuss the feasibility of this framework.     

The effects of beliefs and information about hypnosis on the legal defence of automatism through hypnosis

Abstract

The aims of this study were to assess the impact of public conceptions about the nature and coercive powers of hypnosis, and information regarding different approaches to hypnosis, on the plea of automatism through hypnosis in a criminal trial. Subjects were assigned to three groups. Two were presented with criminal cases in which automatism through hypnosis was implicated, as well as duress; one of these groups received information about different approaches to hypnosis. The third received the same cases, but with duress alone. Results showed that, when automatism through hypnosis was implicated as well as duress, the defendant offering the plea was judged less responsible, however, he was not judged less guilty than when duress alone was the defence. Also, subjects presented with the plea of automatism tended to be more sceptical about the idea than those not presented with this plea. The provision of information on different approaches to hypnosis was largely ineffective in altering beliefs and judgments. Judgments of guilt and responsibility were, however, strongly influenced by beliefs about automatism through hypnosis.     

多元文化视阈下大学生先进典型培育的价值意蕴

大学生先进典型是大学生群体的优秀代表,是传统美德、时代精神和社会主义核心价值观的集中体现,是大学生学习借鉴的楷模。多元文化时代,大学生价值取向呈现个性化、易变化、物质化、功利化等多样性特点,大学生先进典型的影响力日渐式微。高校理应充分认识大学生先进典型的培育对大学生成长成才的导向、示范和激励等价值,狠抓大学生先进典型的选树、培养和宣传工作,以期形成大学生学习先进典型、争当先进典型的浓厚校园文化氛围。     

Advertising Spending by Incumbents and Challengers

Abstract

As candidates spend increasing amounts of money on television advertising, it becomes critically important to assess the degree to which this advertising produces results. In an examination of a particularly hard fought primary for a major state-wide office, this study compares the impact made by each candidate's television advertising on voter intentions during the campaign and the votes ultimately received at the end. Results suggest that over the course of the campaign, television advertising benefited the challenger more than the incumbent.     

Does context matter – The impact of electoral systems,political parties and individual characteristics on voters' perceptions of party positions

This article aims to investigate under which circumstances policy representation can exist in terms of agreement in voters' perceptions of parties' left–right positions. The focal point in the study is on how voters' perceptions are affected not only by individual characteristics but also by various contextual factors related to the political parties and the political systems. With data from the CSES on individual voters and various system characteristics from election surveys in 32 countries, this article shows that what in earlier findings have appeared as national context effects rather are party effects when being decomposed. System related variables have only a small impact on voters' perceptions while the party- followed by the individually related variables exerted the greatest impact.     

Issue and leader voting in U.S. presidential elections

The “Issues and Leaders” model shows that aggregate votes for President in U.S. elections from 1972 to 2012 can be accurately predicted from people's perceptions of the candidates' issue handling competence and leadership qualities. For the past five elections, the model's ex ante forecasts, calculated three to two months prior to Election Day, were competitive with those from the best of eight established political economy models. Model accuracy substantially improved closer to Election Day. The Election Eve forecasts missed the actual vote shares by, on average, little more than one percentage point and thus reduced the error of the Gallup pre-election poll by 30%. The model demonstrates that the direct influence of party identification on vote choice decreases over the course of the campaign, whereas issues gain importance. The model has decision-making implications in that it advises candidates to engage in agenda setting and to increase their perceived issue-handling and leadership competence.