The hierarchies of age-period-cohort research: Political context and the development of generational turnout patterns

Voters that come of age at roughly the same time share common influences because of the specific political context during their formative years. We can therefore assume the errors in a model explaining their political behavior to be dependent. Recent advances in social statistical analysis of age-period-cohort (APC) effects propose the use of hierarchical modeling in combination with repeated cross-sectional survey design to solve this problem. We apply these random-intercept models to assess the impact of the political context on the development of generational turnout patterns, assuming that cohorts that grew up in a highly-politicized context have a higher propensity to turnout to vote despite of any age or period effects.     

中国共产党在农村社会变革中的功能考察

中国共产党执政后，对农村进行了彻底改造，其功能的发挥可称为“创势”，在此过程中其执政党的功能得以空前发挥，在取得巨大成绩的同时也经历了很大的挫折。对于挫折的反思促使中国共产党开始了顺应农民意愿的改革，其功能的发挥可称为“顺势”。随着“三农”问题的凸显，农村改革进入攻坚阶段，中国共产党提出了社会主义新农村建设，其功能的发挥可称为“引势”。     

对加强社区文化建设的思考

社区文化建设是社区社会主义精神文明建设的基本内容之一。加强社区文化建设，一是加强文化阵地和队伍建设，打牢社区文化发展的基础，包括加强文化阵地、文化队伍、文化环境建设等；二是加强开展丰富多彩的文化活动，突出社区文化的引领促进作用，包括开展节庆文化、消夏晚会周、亲情共建活动等；三是努力打造品牌，发挥社区文化的规范激励作用，包括打造优质服务、亲情服务、爱心品牌等。     

在推进包容文化的发展中实现社会主义文化大发展大繁荣

当前,世界趋向多极化,经济快速发展使全球化更加深入,各种文明之间的交融、交流和交锋也日趋频繁,包容文化正是在这种环境下提出的一种科学、可行的文化生成模式。只有立足于发展包容文化,才能不断推进文化大发展大繁荣,促进文化和谐,为建设和谐世界创造文化条件。     

浅析高校内部审计转型及其文化建设

管理体制改革的推进和经济社会的发展，使高校面临诸多新环境的挑战，高校内部审计在转型中可以助其“免疫系统”功能增强。与此同时，作为“软实力”的高校内部审计文化既是校园文化建设的必然要求，又是塑造审计形象并推动审计事业科学发展的现实需要。     

Resource disparity and multi-level elections in competitive authoritarian regimes: Regression discontinuity evidence from Hong Kong

Much research has been done to study how competitive elections affect autocracies and their opposition. Electoral institutions, however, may have different social and political effects. In this paper, I examine the effect of an understudied electoral institution: lower-level elections. I argue that elections at grassroots levels tend to favor the ruling party by allowing it to more fully utilize its resource advantage to buy political support, which would in turn undermine the opposition's ability to develop a local support network that is important to its struggle for democratization as well as for elected offices. Evaluating the effect of lower-level elections is empirically challenging because the effect is likely to be confounded with voter preference. I tackle this identification problem by taking advantage of a quasi-experiment afforded by the electoral formula of Hong Kong, which allows me to use a regression discontinuity design to test my causal argument. I find strong statistical evidence supporting my argument; the ruling elite's aggressive expansion in the District Councils, the lowest elected tier, aims to drive out the opposition elites, who, by occupying a District Council seat, are able to increase their vote share of that constituency by 4–5 percentage points in a subsequent legislative election.     

公务员“重显性,轻隐性”政绩现象探析

公务员在创造政绩的过程中,"重显性,轻隐性"的现象比较突出,这种现象阻碍了经济和社会的良性发展,影响了社会风气,破坏了干群关系。究其原因是由于人们的思想观念落后,干部任用选拔制度不完善,公务员的考核制度不科学和舆论宣传误导所至。因此,正确处理显性政绩与隐性政绩的关系,树立科学的政绩观对于构建和谐社会尤其重要。     

把握社会主义价值体系建设的关键

社会主义核心价值体系是不断发展的体系。加强社会主义核心价值体系建设，需要把握加强社会主义核心价值体系建设的关键：以构建社会主义和谐社会为中心，把握落实社会主义核心价值体系建设的根本性；以和谐文化建设为主题，把握落实社会主义核心价值举系建设的渗透性；以文明文化创新为基础，把握社会主义核心价值体系建设的发展性；以机制建设为依托，把握落实社会主义荣辱观的实效性。     

现代文化中的科学形象评议

现代文化中存在着将科学向社会、人生、价值等领域扩展的倾向。然而，从牛顿、爱因斯坦等最有威望的科学家的言行中，却可以彰显出科学精英对科学持有的“有限性意识”，其要点为：对于人来说，科学不是最高的，生活的问题不能全由科学解决；科学活动中并不存在可以总结成训练手册的方法。     

民主与政治稳定:印尼局势动荡与政权更迭的政治解读

印尼的局势动荡和政权更迭表明 ,在民主体制下 ,领导人个人的道德品行如何及对民主原则的认同与否、政党是否成熟、具体的体制设计与现实政治力量分布是否相互协调是影响一个国家政治稳定的重要因素。