Explaining Turnout Decline in Britain, 1964–2005: Party Identification and the Political Context

Turnout decline in Britain is greater than it first appears since changes in the social composition of the electorate have had a positive impact on turnout. This paper finds that whereas a weakening in the strength of party identification is associated with the long-term decline, the political context influences short-term variation. Partisan dealignment is also changing the dynamics of the determinants of turnout. Since non-identifiers are more strongly influenced by the political context than strong identifiers, and there are now more non-identifiers than previously, the political context is becoming a more important factor in determining whether people vote or not.

Clans,politics and organized crime in Central Asia

This paper investigates the role of transnational organized crime in the democratisation process in the Central Asian area. It examines the inherent connections that exist between the leading tribal families, political elites and organized crime, and explores how criminal networks have proliferated in society and consequently in politics. The complete absence of a ruling élite and striking economic issues left unsolved were the legacy that Soviet rule would leave to the newly independent Central Asian Republics. After the fall of the former Soviet Union other, more profitable forms of transnational organized crime flourished. According to the official statistics of the UNODC and the American State Department, 92% of the world’s heroin is produced in Afghanistan. Of this, around 65% is smuggled into Europe and America along the Silk Road, and therefore through the five Central Asian Republics and Russia. High levels of corruption in Central Asia heavily affect political and economic life. The economies of the region have progressively become dominated by criminal activity with smuggling, trafficking and other activities linked to transnational organized crime as the major source of income. Central Asia’s strategic location makes this a global security concern.

Parteien und die Generosität der Altersrenten in Zeiten permanenter Austerität

Zusammenfassung: Die quantitative Sozialpolitikforschung weist ein doppeltes Defizit auf: Zum einen dominieren Analysen aggregierter Ausgaben(quoten), zum anderen fokussieren die meisten Studien zu Lohnersatzraten auf die Arbeitslosen‐ und Krankenversicherung, während die Rentengenerosität weitgehend ausgespart geblieben ist. Der vorliegende Artikel stößt in diese Lücke, indem er zunächst die theoretischen Besonderheiten der Rente diskutiert und zwei Hypothesen zu deren Rückbau und der Rolle der Parteien dabei formuliert. Im Anschluss an eine Methodendiskussion präsentieren wir die Ergebnisse von (robustheitsgetesteten) Regressionsanalysen der Veränderungen der Lohnersatzraten in 18 entwickelten Demokratien. Es zeigt sich, dass die Kürzungen der Lohnersatzraten im Rentenbereich weitaus geringer ausfallen als in den beiden anderen Bereichen, und dass sich die Parteieneffekte auffallend unterscheiden.     

西方国家主流媒体“中国国防透明度”报道研究

近年来,西方国家主流媒体关于"中国国防透明度"的新闻报道及认可程度并未因为中国国防透明度的显著提升而出现"正向相关"。通过对相关数据的采集和分析可以看出,西方国家主流媒体对中国国防透明度的认可程度与其国家同中国的政治友好程度"正向相关",而与西方国家主流媒体的媒体实力"反向相关"。西方国家主流媒体对中国国防透明度的新闻报道主要受到价值观念、刻板印象和国家利益等因素的影响,使其对中国国防透明度的新闻报道呈现一种层次性,不同类别的国家对中国国防透明度的评判态度明显不一致。因此,中国国防透明度的建构迫切需要与国际传播紧密结合起来,即实现自我塑造与他者建构的契合。     

台湾社会阶层关系现状及其对政局的影响

近年来台湾的社会阶层结构和阶层关系出现了一些新变化。当前台湾社会阶层关系的基本特征表现为:"结构化"特征最为明显,"中产化"特征并未改变,"碎片化"特征越来越明显,尚未发展到"断裂化"的程度。上个世纪90年代以来经济的恶化,制度和政策的不合理,以及政治上的蓝绿恶斗,都是影响到台湾社会关系复杂化的主要因素。而社会阶层关系会对台湾政治体系和政治过程、选举政治生态和政党的政策走向、民众的政治意识、政治倾向和政治参与都产生一定的影响。     

建国前党的少数民族思想政治教育工作述论

思想政治教育对于实现党的民族政策、纲领方式发挥着不可或缺的重要作用。党在革命过程中积累了丰富的思想政治教育的经验,只有在吸收优秀成果的基础上,才能对我们当前少数民族思想政治工作的开展与实施产生重要的促进作用。从这个层面而言,回顾和总结党在各时期的少数民族思想政治教育过程对我们当前的工作有着重大的指导意义。     

婚约纠纷解决与婚约立法

目前,我国因订婚、悔婚产生的彩礼纠纷不断,婚约纠纷普遍存在。然而,现行婚姻法没有规定婚约,遇有纠纷只能依最高院司法解释予以事后调整。法律作为纠纷解决机制,必然要在做到事后调整的同时,也要做到事前指引,这是法本身的要求。婚姻法正面规定婚约与否定社会现实中婚约运作中的不合理同样是纠纷解决,并不因为肯定性规定或否定性评价而阻碍婚姻自由的贯彻。面对订婚的社会事实和法律制度间的不协调,纠纷的频频发生,法律的事前指引比事后调整更为合适。     

中产阶层政治动向研究述评

中国中产阶层政治动向的研究,大体上存在通过问卷和访谈观察中产阶层民主意识和研究中产阶层集体性政治活动两种方法。在中产阶层的政治态度上,学界存在三种观点:总体保守、比较激进、缺乏统一性;在政治功能上,也存在中产阶级是社会政治稳定的基础、社会变革的基础、社会发展中的异化力量三种不同结论。当前中产阶层政治动向的研究应当在研究对象上重视边缘中产阶层的政治动向;在研究问题上关注中间阶层政治态度及其社会政治功能是否发生演化;在研究领域上重点关注网络时代公共事件中中产阶层的政治参与。     

The electoral consequences of voter ignorance

A great deal of research has suggested that scholarly and popular concerns about low levels of citizen political knowledge are exaggerated. One implication of that research is that political history would have unfolded just as it did even if electorates had been more politically informed. This paper presents evidence that counters these claims, showing an infusion of electorally relevant information in twenty-seven democracies would have likely led to a lot of vote “switching”, ultimately changing the composition of many governments. The paper also directly and systematically examines what we might call the “enlightened natural constituency” hypothesis, which expects lower-income citizens to vote disproportionately for left parties once armed with more political knowledge. While the basic argument about how political ignorance disproportionately affects the left’s natural constituency is not new, the hypothesis has thus far not been tested. The analysis provides provisional support for the hypothesis.