Mixing Habermas with Bayes: Methodological and Theoretical Advances in the Study of Deliberation

Two challenges stand out in the study of deliberation: the development of appropriate methodological tools and the development of more unified analytical frameworks. On the one hand, analysing deliberative processes is demanding and time‐consuming; hence we tend to have only few and non‐randomly selected cases at the group or context level. In addition, the real world of deliberation presents us with a complex matrix of nested, cross‐classified, and repeated speakers. This article shows that Bayesian multi‐level modelling provides an elegant way to tackle these methodological problems. On the other hand, we attempt to enrich comparative institutionalism with individual characteristics and psychologically relevant variables (such as group composition). Focusing on Swiss and German parliamentary debates we show that institutional factors ‐ in particular, consensus systems ‐, the gender composition of committees and plenary sessions, and age matter for the quality of deliberation. Furthermore, we also show that partisan affiliation ‐ government or opposition status of MPs ‐ affects deliberative quality and can refine institutional arguments. We conclude that a multi‐level approach to deliberation focusing on contextual and actor‐related characteristics and using Bayesian hierarchical modelling paves the way toward a more advanced understanding ‐ and methodological handling ‐ of deliberative processes.     

激活思想政治课教学的方法探究

思想政治课是对学生进行公民品德教育和马克思主义常识教育的必修课程,由于多种因素的影响,思想政治课教学面临的问题越来越突出。要解决这些问题,激活思想政治课教学,必须增强教学的实效性、主体性和实践性,并充分发挥教师的主导作用。     

The social logic of political choice: Picking a political party in the context of immediate social circles

The Social Logic of Politics places social learning at the center of political choice. People develop their political preferences, knowledge, values, perceptions of ability, and decisions about political behavior in interactions with others, usually members of their social circles. Political attitudes and goals are not derivatives of exogenous economic preferences. They are not the results of careful calculations, in which optimization of personal needs guides the mode of reasoning. This theoretical stance draws sustenance from recent work across the social science, even as it harkens back to established, if neglected principles of political analysis. My thanks to Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck for his encouragement and for the critical comments of several anonymous referees and to Josip Dasović and Jennifer Fitzgerald, my co-authors of Partisan Families: the Social Logic of Bounded Partisanship in Germany and Britain (Zuckerman et al. 2007). Material from that book appears in this essay.     

Tony Blair's 'Media' Speech: The Commentators

Tony Blair's speech challenged the media over its standards in his valedictory lecture. Many of his charges about the absence of balance, attacks on motive and a pack mentality stand up, even if some are exaggerated and also applied well before his arrival in 10 Downing Street. Mr Blair's solutions did ot match his critique. What is required is a more self‐questioning media, being held to account on the internet and on specialist blogging sites. Vigorous criticism, requiring justification, is a more credible rout than tighter regulation. Tony Blair's speech on the changing pressures on the media is both interesting and convincing in its diagnosis (although generally reported in ways that did not reveal this). It is less convincing in suggestions for change: the fact that on‐line media will fall under Of‐com, and so under its minimal ‘content regulation’ will have little impact. Effective change could begin with other types of (self or other regulation). Some steps towards change might include minimal requirements for journalists and editors to accept elementary forms of accountability, such as disclosing conflicts of interest and payments made for ‘stories’. The scale of media coverage may be crucial in determining the allocation of aid, yet the attention the media pays to particular causes is arbitrary. Many serious disasters are not reported and as a consequence do not receive adequate aid, so that the victims of the crisis will lose out. Chronic long term problems, like famine, are ignored in favour of ‘sudden emergencies’. Reporting seeks sensation and simple stories which influences the way that aid agencies respond to the media. The complex background to a faraway disaster is often overlooked and not properly reported. Tony Blair's speech describing some of the news media as ‘feral beasts’ contained one paragraph which contained an insight into his views on new media. It was known that the outgoing Prime Minister was uncomfortable with some aspects of new technology but his remarks reveal a wider disappointment with how new media has failed to deliver changes which he had hoped for in political communications.This paper records Mr Blair's problems with new media and argues that by focusing on how the new technologies might provide a better way for politicians to by‐pass the traditional media he has missed the point of their wider benefits.     

全球化背景下的缅甸政治危机

在一场佛教僧侣和学生带头的和平示威平息之后,美国参议院一致通过决议强烈要求东盟暂停缅甸的会员资格,缅甸问题成为东盟会议关注的焦点.经过磋商,东盟最终拒绝了美国参议院要求东盟暂停成员资格以惩罚缅甸军政府的要求.新加坡总理李显龙在峰会开幕仪式致词时说:"东盟将努力防止缅甸问题成为我们加深一体化和建立东盟共同体的障碍."     

L'impact du mode de scrutin sur l'élection des femmes à l'Assemblée fédérale Suisse (1995‐2003)

Cet article analyse l'impact du système électoral sur l'élection des femmes à l'Assemblée fédérale (1995‐2003). La littérature a souvent mis l'accent sur l'importance du système proportionnel en vue de l'amélioration de la représentation des femmes au Parlement en se concentrant souvent uniquement sur le taux de femmes élues. Dans cet article, nous argumentons qu'il est nécessaire d'étudier les trajectoires des candidats et de prendre en compte à la fois les candidats hommes et femmes. Nous montrons que l'effet women‐friendly du système proportionnel au Conseil national semble davantage jouer au niveau de la stratégie de désignation des candidats et des candidates que lors de leur élection, et ce particulièrement pour les partis politiques du centre et de droite.     

Psychosocial Resources in First-Year University Students: The Role of Identity Processes and Social Relationships

The investigation involved the assessment of a model predicting that family and university relationship environments are linked with identity processes and identity states (statuses) that predict psychosocial resources among first-year university students. A sample of 351 university students, between the ages of 18 and 21 years, completed measures of psychosocial maturity based on Erikson's notions of ego virtues, a measure of identity processing styles (diffuse-avoidant, normative, and information styles), identity statuses (diffusion, foreclosure, moratorium, and achievement), measures of family climate (conflict, expression, cohesion), and assessments of university relationships with faculty, advisors, and students. Based on linear structural equations, the model, with some adjustments, had a good fit with the data and demonstrates the complex association between perceived family and school climate, identity formation, and the association with psychosocial resources. The investigation demonstrates how multivariate model testing can be completed to assess some of the complexity suggested by Erik Erikson regarding identity formation. Gerald R Adams is a Professor of Family Relations and Human Development at the University of Guelph in Ontario, Canada. His major interests focus on family relations, identity development, education, and prevention. Michael Berzonsky is Professor of Psychology at State University of New York at Cortland, New York. His major interests are identity styles, social cognition, and adolescent development. Leo Keating is a data analyst at the University of Guelph.     

Existential Anxiety in Adolescents: Prevalence, Structure, Association with Psychological Symptoms and Identity Development

Existential anxiety is hypothesized to be a core human issue in a great deal of theoretical and philosophical writing. However, little is known about the emergence of these concerns and their relation to emotional functioning in youth. The purpose of this study was to examine the phenomenon of existential anxiety in a sample of adolescents. Data on existential concerns, identity development and psychological symptoms were collected on a sample of 139 youth in grades 9–12. Results indicated that existential anxiety concerns have a theoretically consistent factor structure, are common among adolescents, and are associated with psychological symptoms, as well as identity issues. Results are discussed with regard to the importance of existential concerns in the lives of youth and the need for additional research.Received PhD from Florida International University. Interests are identity development including associated anxiety and distress, cross-national comparisons, and the development of identity interventions.Received PhD from Florida International University. Interests focus on the developmental psychopathology of anxiety and depression.Received PhD from the University of Arizona. Interests include a range of topics in developmental psychopathology, prevention, program evaluation, and research methodology.     

Before Identity, Gender and Human Rights

This is the beginning of an exploration of before as the thesis ‘before’ (temporally) and ‘be-fore’ (spatially) difference. Before denotes the origin and the desired destination. Before (in the double sense of ‘before’ and ‚be-in-the-fore’) opens up a space of pre-difference, of origin and of forgotten memory, as well as a space of desire, objective, illusion of teleology, unity, completion. Applied to the two domains of Human Rights and Sex/Gender, the space of ‘before’ yields two slightly different vistas: in human rights, a premodern, functionally undifferentiated society which had to invent human rights as its safeguards of functional differentiation. In Sex/Gender, ‘before’ brings a self-referential construction: that of ipseity, as the form of identity beyond comparison that does not play with id but with ipsum. Ipseity is inoperable but not useless. It is inoperable because it cannot be observed from anywhere without suffering rupture. It is not useless because it offers a ground for the reconceptualisation of difference, both through awe and desire.     

Institutional determinants of the largest seat share

The degree of predominance of the largest party in a representative assembly affects government formation and survival. The seat share of the largest party, in turn, is constrained by the interaction of assembly size and electoral district magnitude in the following way. When all S seats in an assembly are allocated in districts of magnitude M, a logical quantitative model proposes that the largest fractional share is s₁ = (MS)^−1/8. As a curve, the model is found to fit with R² = 0.509, considering data from the averages of 46 periods in 37 countries, during which the electoral rules were essentially steady. As a worldwide average, the expression s₁(MS)^1/8 = 1 holds within 1%. Deviations from this average express the impact of various country-specific political and socio-cultural factors that can be investigated once the basic institutional constraints are controlled-for. This means that the degree of largest party predominance may be engineered to hover around a desired average by adjusting assembly size, and district magnitude, while keeping country-specific factors in mind.