转型期农民政治人格培育的困境与路径选择

农民在我国现代化建设事业中一直扮演着重要角色,转型社会时期农民现代政治人格的培育显得尤为重要.我国农民现代政治人格的培育在经济、政治、文化和社会方面均面临着一定的困境,因此其现代政治人格的培育将是一个长期的系统工程,需多方面的共同努力才能完成.培养农民现代政治人格的路径选择是:解决民生;发展民主;提升素质;畅通渠道.     

The Theory of International Media Diffusion: Political Socialization and International Media in Transitional Democracies

Despite the long-standing normative assumption that, for individuals in transitional states, exposure to Western media cultivates stronger attachments to Western political and economic values, the evidence presented here suggests otherwise. Using mass public survey data from the mid-1990s in five Central and Eastern European countries, this article demonstrates a general lack of support for international media’s positive contributions to individuals’ democratic attitudes and preferences for market economies. This finding is particularly unexpected because the countries under investigation represent ideal cases based on their proximity to Western democracies and international (Western) media sources’ capacities for extensive transnational media penetration into the region. Yet this failure to find persuasive evidence of the influence of international media diffusion on the development of Western political values sharpens our understanding of the process of political socialization in democratizing countries by eliminating an assumed source and is thus relevant to students of democratization, international development, and mass media.

Exchange Rate Regime,Central Bank Independence,and Political Business Cycles in Brazil

This article examines policy consequences of electoral cycles and exchange rate regime choices in Brazil. The literature on opportunistic political business cycles maintains that governments adopt expansionary economic policies before elections to mobilize voters’ support. However, research findings in Latin America based on the theory has been inconclusive. I argue that the lack of conclusive evidence in Latin America stems from measurement errors common in the use of cross-national aggregate data. Using Brazil’s monthly data from 1985 to 2006, this article shows that there are electorally induced fiscal cycles under fixed and crawling peg exchange rate regimes and electorally induced monetary cycles under floating exchange rates only when the nation’s central bank is not independent. Indeed, accounting for Brazil’s unique economic contingencies and longitudinal variations in the de facto central bank independence, its public policy behavior remarkably resembles that of the more affluent, economically stable OECD countries.

The unbearable lightness of membership: Bulgaria and Romania after the 2007 EU accession

This paper focuses on the current political and socio-economic situation in the two most recent EU member states, Bulgaria and Romania. Overall, the post-accession period in both countries has been comparable to that in the East-Central European members that had joined the Union on 1 May 2004. However, there have been some significant differences in the post-accession path of Bulgaria and Romania, which set them apart from the rest of the EU-10, as well as among themselves. For instance, the problem of corruption has been a particularly salient theme for the political elites of both countries and it led to the paralysis of the cabinet in Romania during the first year of its membership and to the rise of powerful populist alternatives in Bulgaria. What has probably been even more distinguishing in the cases of Bulgaria and Romania is their apparent inability to swiftly deal with the political and social challenges emerging after accession, as well as to adequately respond to the process of Europeanization. The main reason for this has been the unfinished political and socio-economic transformation of both countries, accompanied by the consolidation of certain ‘reserve domains’, occupied by the former secret services and semi-mafia structures.     

关于我国社会主义政权安全的初步思考

政权安全是社会主义国家安全的核心内容。当前我国政权安全正面临着国际国内敌对　势力的多种威胁。如何维护和巩固人民政权？这是一个严肃的现实问题。随着我国改革的发　展和国际形势的变化,除了要反对国内外敌对势力的渗透、颠覆、破坏外,更重要的是要加　强内部建设,即社会主义民主政治建设和中国共产党自身建设等。     

信息时代图书馆采访的发展策略

信息时代,图书馆采访工作面临着图书的出版和发行发生巨大变化、信息量激增、向网络化发展、社会信息需求日益增长、经费日益短缺等问题,对此必须采取转变观念,重新调整图书经费、增加电子出版物的收藏,开发网上信息资源,走合作采访的道路等策略,实现图书馆网上采购,以适应信息化时代的要求.     

论侦查信息和侦查策略

侦查信息是犯罪事件系统的有序程度 ,是侦查人员对犯罪事件系统之不确定性消除的量度。侦查信息具有传递性、耗散性、转换性和条件性等属性 ;侦查信息具有多种载体并呈多样发送方式 ,侦查信息的获取方法应切合信息载体类型和信息发送方式特点。侦查策略是侦查活动中灵活运用的旨在实现侦查目标的方式和方法 ,但并不等同于具体侦查措施和方法本身 ;侦查策略是以侦查信息为依据的侦查决策结论 ,是对旨在实现侦查目标的措施和方法的组织运筹 ;侦查策略具有合法性、科学性、系统性特征 ;依据侦查策略运用目的的标准可将侦查策略划分为多种类型     

Conflict Beliefs,Goals, and Behavior in Romantic Relationships During Late Adolescence

Little is known about social cognition regarding conflict in romantic relationships during late adolescence. The current study examined beliefs, social goals, and behavioral strategies for conflict in romantic relationships and their associations with relationship quality among a sample of 494 college students. Two dimensions of conflict beliefs, constructive and destructive, were identified. Constructive conflict beliefs were associated with relationship-oriented conflict goals and negotiation strategies during romantic conflict. Destructive conflict beliefs were associated with conflict goals focused on revenge or individual needs (self or partner) and with destructive conflict behavior (aggression and compliance). Conflict goals partially mediated links between general conflict beliefs and specific conflict strategies. Conflict beliefs, goals, and behavior also uniquely predicted the degree of conflict and intimacy in romantic relationships.

Trust in international organizations: An empirical investigation focusing on the United Nations

The literature on social capital has strongly increased in the last two decades, but there still is a lack of substantial empirical evidence about the determinants of international trust. This empirical study analyzes a cross-section of individuals, using micro-data from the World Values Survey, covering 38 countries, to investigate trust in international organizations, specifically in the United Nations. In line with previous studies on international trust we find that political trust matters. We also find that social trust is relevant, but contrary to previous studies the results are less robust. Moreover, the paper goes beyond previous studies investigating also the impact of geographic identification, corruption and globalization. We find that a higher level of (perceived) corruption reduces the trust in the UN in developed countries, but increases trust in developing and transition countries. A stronger identification with the world as a whole also leads to a higher trust in the UN and a stronger capacity to act globally in economic and political environment increases trust in the UN.

IMF conditionality: An approach based on the theory of special interest politics

Financial assistance provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other International Financial Institutions (IFIs) aims to help member countries reduce their economic policy distortions. Because these distortions are endogenously generated, it is important to understand how IFI assistance interacts with the domestic political economy. In this paper, we review recent models of IFI conditional assistance that are based on the theory of special interest politics (Grossman and Helpman 2001). In these models, governments adopt inefficient economic policies and instruments because of lobbying by interest groups. IFI assistance helps reduce these inefficiencies, at least under perfect and symmetric information, and provided IFIs are representative of the general public in creditor and debtor countries. Factors limiting the effectiveness of conditional assistance as an incentive system are also identified. These are related to information asymmetries, the potential for political instability in debtor countries, and the IFIs’ own financial solvency.