Open versus closed primaries and the ideological composition of presidential primary electorates

Many journalists, political reformers and social scientists assume that electorates in open versus closed primaries are distinctive, especially in terms of their ideological orientations. Because voting in closed primaries is restricted to registered partisans, voters in this setting are assumed to be more ideologically extreme. Independents voting in open primaries are seen as moderating the ideological orientation of these primary electorates. However, our research demonstrates that the ideological orientations of voters in these two primary settings are quite similar. Prior research demonstrates the influence of primary laws on voters’ self-identifications as partisans or independents. We expand upon this research to show how this influences the number and ideological positions of partisans and independents as they vote in presidential primaries held under differing participation rules.     

The 2016 Austrian Presidential Election: A Tale of Three Divides

The 2016 Austrian presidential election was remarkably different than the previous ones in the history of the country characterized by its stable political system. Not only did it open the role of president in Austria to debate, but it also sidelined the two political parties that had dominated Austrian politics since World War II. Alexander Van der Bellen won the election with one of the closest margins in recent history. This article argues that the election divided the country in more than one way. Besides the near 50–50 divide between the candidates, the results show that it generated important dynamics in territorial politics as well, notably in the states and cities of Austria. These results point towards a party system transformation in Austrian politics.     

An analysis of the changing social bases of America's political parties: 1952–2008

In this article I address two interrelated questions: have the group bases of the American political parties changed over time and what factors have lead to the observed changes? I determine social group memberships significantly influence individual partisanship with a multivariate analysis using 56 years of ANES data. I then measure how many votes each politically relevant social group contributed to the party coalitions in each presidential election from 1952 to 2008. I discuss how group contributions have changed over time and establish the demographic and behavioral causes of group contribution change. I find that the party coalitions have been restructured as a result of groups' changing voting behavior and the changing ratio of groups in the electorate.     

The role of ASEAN institutes of strategic and international studies in developing security cooperation in the Asia‐pacific region

As the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) governments are facing new challenges, the need to re‐evaluate the significance of the track‐two activities has been recognised. As there has been insufficient research on the ASEAN Institutes of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS), this article analyses their role in the development of security cooperation. It shows that ASEAN‐ISIS has contributed to the establishment of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) by analysing the common/cooperative security thinking, the establishment of an inter‐governmental forum for a security dialogue, and the extension of ASEAN's diplomatic style over a larger geographical area. As ASEAN‐ISIS has contributed to inter‐governmental cooperation by promoting ideas, this article concludes that the significance of their activities in contemporary Asian politics should be understood in terms of the introduction and promotion of such innovative ideas.     

Transforming international communications strategies

The strategy used by governments to communicate with foreign populations has changed dramatically in the twentieth century. The need perceived by governments to use such a strategy in the first place derived from numerous social changes in the 150 years before World War I, most particularly the increased role played in politics by the masses organized in nation‐states. The shifting strategy of persuasive communication since then forms part of a broader transformation of international political communication which includes technological change, organizational developments, and absolute but not necessarily relative growth in international communications transactions.

The predominant strategy developed in World War I was propaganda. It used fairly straightforward appeals to rationality, sense of morality, and such important but readily accessible emotions as hatred. Its excesses, especially the wide dissemination of atrocity stories which did not bear up well under later dispassionate examination, at once made all propaganda suspect and alerted governments to the necessity of refining their communicative techniques for the eventuality of future international conflicts.

The years before and during World War II saw international communicators—especially Goebbels in Nazi Germany and the Anglo‐American psychological warriors—develop a new strategy which utilized new knowledge about the psychological roots of human behavior. In addition to straightforward appeals to the consciousness of individuals, they sought to manipulate their audiences by playing on their deep‐seated desires and fears. Of particular importance for Nazi Germany were the allegedly racial ties of the individual to a people and the need for figures of authority.

First major experiments were made in World War II to develop an even more basic strategy of international communication: structuring the situation in which people learn their predispositions, perspectives, and behaviors. Its basic idea is to create situations in which the communicator does not have to tell the targeted audience anything at all, but in which the audience, left to its own devices, can only come to the conclusions desired by the communicator. Thus strategic bombing sought to destroy the morale of the enemy's home front and, through that action, to weaken its war‐making capacity. The postwar occupation of Germany originally sought to create a new environment in which Germans could be reeducated to democracy. Subsequent emphasis has also been on communications aimed at generating certain predispositions, such as a desire for consumer goods or a particular political style, which then spawn appropriate perspectives and behaviors.

This new strategy of structural communication has its limits. The most important of these is the difficulty of controlling all aspects of a foreign population's communications environment (which includes traditions, face‐to‐face networks, and conflicting sources of information). The potential importance of the strategy nonetheless makes it likely that governments will continue to work toward its development and implementation for their own international political purposes.     

The stock market and U.S. presidential approval

Since the 1970s research has demonstrated a strong relationship between national economic performance and presidential approval. Traditionally, these popularity models rely on macroeconomic conditions; however, other economic performance measures may more fully capture the direction of the economy. One such measure, the stock market index, captures elements of national and household economic well-being. Therefore, market performance should impact presidential ratings. Our presidential approval model, based on quarterly data covering 1960–2011, demonstrates that approval is highly sensitive to the stock market's acceleration or deceleration, even with strong controls in the model for the other economic and political determinants of popularity. A rapid fall in the stock market index reduces president approval, while a sharp acceleration in the index growth boosts U.S. presidential approval.     

A Review of: “Israeli and Palestinian Postcards: Presentations of National Self”

Recent studies suggest that what the political talk radio hosts say on the air can shape the political orientations of their audiences. Drawing on data from a panel survey conducted in 1996, I examined the "Limbaugh effect" during the GOP presidential nomination campaign. My findings cast doubt on popular assumptions about the power of Limbaugh's words. Despite weeks of listening to Limbaugh criticize Pat Buchanan, members of the audience were no more likely to harbor negative feelings toward the candidate than were nonlisteners.     

泰国:2011～2012年回顾与展望

2011年7月,泰国提前举行大选,为泰党赢得选举并联合小党派组建联合政府。前总理他信的妹妹、为泰党候选人英拉·西那瓦当选泰国第28任总理,也是泰国历史上首位女总理。由于特大洪灾的影响,2011年泰国经济增长速度低于预期,新政府执政能力也经受考验。外交方面,泰柬边境冲突成为泰国本年度重要的外交事件,但两国关系随着英拉政府上台而开始出现缓和。     

破坏选举罪中“贿选”若干问题刍议

"贿选"行为是当前选举活动中较为突出的问题,是对社会主义民主政治发展的严重破坏,也是破坏选举罪重点打击的行为。实践中,"贿选"行为手段日益多样化和隐蔽化,"贿选"行为在其范围、对象、类型等方面都存在不少疑难,需要予以认真探讨。     

对美国救市法案之评价及其对我国之启示

尽管对纳税人权利的保护、意识形态上的认识及政治利益等多方面的因素一度使美国“问题资产紧急救助计划”夭折,但是危机中的金融机构与美国经济患难与共的事实最终“绑架”了政府的决策。然而,这并不是问题的全部,为救市应急而作的《紧急经济稳定法案》不仅宣示了市场经济内在的破绽、金融监管的失灵,而且其繁琐的创制程序更深刻地表白了民主与法治的先天不足。无论如何,对这一切进行公正且客观的认识对于我国来说都具有时代的意义。