The Presidential Election of 2008*

Senators Barack Obama and John McCain each has severe problems. McCain must take his distance from the very unpopular President Bush while keeping the support of the core Republican voters, but suffers from lack of rapport with the Fundamentalist Protestants and traditionalist Catholics. In foreign policy, he is more devoted to US global hegemony (in a world which stubbornly refuses it) than the incumbent. Senator Obama knows that this is a dangerous illusion but thinks that it is unwise to say so. He supports Israel in exaggerated terms and repeats the fabrications of the war party about Iran. Obama has the difficulty of being part black and entirely intellectual, and he needs the votes of the working class men and women who are very reserved about him. McCain seeks low taxes and less government expenditure and intervention, but tens of millions of economically hard‐pressed citizens are ready to return to the ethos and practices of the New Deal. Obama promises to revive the regulatory and redistributive role of government to help them, but his reluctance to criticise the arms budget may makes him seem unrealistic. Obama's vision of the United States puts the achievement of the American Revolution in the future whereas McCain thinks of the nation as already perfected. In many respects, we have a classical conflict between left and right.     

The Four Predicaments of American Liberalism: Challenges and Opportunities in a Presidential Election Year

The presidential campaigns of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have indicated an apparent resurgence in American liberalism. More significantly, they have underlined both the highly problematic nature of the liberal legacy within the Democratic Party and the difficulties of mobilising liberal themes in the battle of ideas that characterises the conduct of politics in the United States. The article examines the difficulty of the issue by reference to four predicaments that persistently condition the status and deployment of liberal themes. In analysing the problems of strategy, historical narrative, political positioning and ideational engagement, the study analyses the negative connotations of contemporary liberalism, the multiple limitations of liberal reform, and liberalism's deficiencies in the politics of America's core ideas. A revived liberal prospectus will depend upon the ingenuity of liberal forces in challenging the conservative ascendancy in ideational competition, and in renegotiating a public settlement of their own with the central strands of political legitimacy.     

The Consequences of Battleground and “Spectator” State Residency for Political Participation

This study uses pooled NES and state-level turnout data from 1988 through 2004 to assess whether a participation gap is emerging in the United States between the residents of battleground and non-battleground states in presidential elections. The analysis finds that Electoral College (EC) participatory disparities are more likely to occur in voting and meeting attendance than in donating and political discussion. Moreover, it suggests that such disparities are more likely to occur when presidential elections are nationally competitive. The study also demonstrates that when participatory gaps do occur they are the result of a surge in participation among battleground state residents—not of citizen withdrawal in safe states, as many EC critics contend. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Elections and the Development of Civil War: An Empirical Study of Sri Lanka

Present empirical research on the connection between elections and civil war often treats causality as a one-way effect because it focuses exclusively on either the onset or the consequence of civil war. What is omitted in the literature is the endogenous nature of the election–conflict nexus throughout a civil war. This article dedicates itself to filling that gap. Treating administrative units in conflict as part of a rebellion network, we apply a stochastic actor-oriented model (SAOM) to the case of Sri Lanka. We find that, on the one hand, rebellion is less likely to occur in Tamil regions if national winners in presidential elections enjoy high local approval ratings (selection effect). On the other hand, regions involved in the rebellion network converge in terms of their local support for the national winner of the presidency (influence effect). Overall, our model-based simulation analysis shows that the influence effect has a larger impact on the endogenous relationship than the selection effect.     

Keeping the left at bay: Delegate selection system choice in US Democratic presidential nominations

In the modern era of US presidential nominations, every election cycle we witness around 20% change in delegate selection system types. This variance remains unexplained and for the most part unexplored. At the same time, prior formal and empirical models offer contradicting expectations of party leader behavior in their choice of system. This paper looks to bridge this divide. We argue state party leaders use delegate selection systems to select candidates favorable to their own ideological position. When the median partisan is ideologically left relative to the position of state Democratic leaders, the leaders of the Party will open up the delegate selection system to dilute the voices furthest on the left. We employ maximum likelihood estimation as a method to show that left positioning of citizens relative to state Democratic leaders increases the likelihood the state Democratic Party will use a primary system as opposed to a caucus.     

The British Election Study 2015 general election constituency forecast

This paper develops a votes-to-seats nowcast model using individual level data from the British Election Study Internet panel to model the flow of the vote between 2010 and 2015. Transition matrices for each constituency are calculated using multinomial models of flows between 2010 origins and 2015 destinations. Respondents are reweighted to the polling average for England, Scotland and Wales and are further reweighted using predicted turnout to downweight respondents who are less likely to vote. The forecast performed poorly in 2015 because of polling errors and because the “Ashcroft” constituency vote intention question overestimated the Liberal Democrat incumbency effect. Without these errors, the forecast would have come much closer to the result but would still have underestimated the Conservatives' seats.     

Assessing the ‘Gold Standard’ of party policy placements: Is computerized replication possible?

The Comparative Manifestos Project (CMP) offers data on party policy positions based on a coding scheme of 56 categories. To what extent can we replicate the CMP coding results by using computerized topical coding of digitalised manifestos? Both human and computer coding have a number of strengths and weaknesses so that the combination of strengths could help to arrive at both valid and reliable party policy placements, in particular the measurement of policy movements over time. More than 1500 digitalised party manifestos in 20 democracies in the period 1960–2009 are re-coded with a computerized CMP-compatible coding scheme in order to assess the differences with human coding using exactly the same issue categories and the same left–right scale.The analysis shows that it is possible to use computer coding in order to locate the potential weakness of the human coding and the other way around. It also illustrates that the validity and reliability of policy placements is a function of the conceptualisation and operationalisation of issues, of the size of documents and of scale construction. Computerized cross-validation of the CMP-coding results offers a new and powerful tool to assess its reliability.     

The Failure of Presidentialism in Central Asia

Institutional design can impact the dynamics of power relations in Central Asian states. Majoritarianism and the rigidity of the fixed terms of presidential systems are amplified by the personalist regimes of Central Asia, often leading to instability. A parliamentary system may reduce the political repression of these regimes by decreasing the stakes in each particular election. It may also increase stability due to the higher flexibility of the system. The effectiveness of the parliamentary system, however, depends largely on the existence of strong cohesive parties.     

Developments in Indian Federalism: 2005–2007

Abstract

The subject matter of this paper, in general, is federalism in India. Three recent instances of the impact of Article 356—the ‘Emergency Provisions’—are analyzed to study two questions. How is federalism affected when different political parties are in power in the States and at the federal level, and does the current coalition government's experience help or hinder federalism? As to the first question, the two States of Jharkhand and Bihar, with particular emphasis on the latter, in the aftermath of the 2005 elections are examined. In both cases, it was blatant federal intervention that led to the dismissal of the duly elected governments in these States solely on political considerations and the advice of the Governors who were appointed by the federal government. The third is the case of the State of Uttar Pradesh where in 2006–2007 an attempted use of this Article was thwarted by the Election Commission. As to the second question, the use or the very threat of using Article 356 to dismiss duly elected State governments under the pressure of coalition partners at the Centre does not augur well for constitutional government or coalitions, and certainly not for federalism. In any case, Indian federalism lives up to the moniker as pointed out by C. H. Alexandrovictz that it is sue generis.     

Two steps forward, one step back? Bias in the 2008 presidential election

The candidates running during the 2008 presidential campaign were the most diverse in America’s history. Prior to this historic election, female and minority candidates had little success in pursuing the presidency. Barack Obama’s victory signals a decline in those barriers. Yet some groups, especially religious ones, continue to face barriers, including Atheists, Mormons and Muslims. The paper takes a close look at bias in presidential voting. This examination will provide an opportunity to consider new hypotheses about why barriers remain, shedding light on the nature and extent of bias within the American public. We consider social desirability, ideology, social contact, and group threat explanations. To test our ideas, we rely on list experiments using national representative samples in 2007 and in 2008. These data provide a unique opportunity to advance our understanding of the 2008 election, in particular, and the role of bias, in general. The results also offer some insight into future presidential elections.