2008奥运与中西文化的交融 --为奥运圣火重燃110周年和2008北京奥运而作

2008年奥运会是中西文化深度交融的契机,本文对古希腊文化对奥运文化的滋养、现代奥运文化的普适价值、中国文化与奥运文化的相通性、中国文化对奥运文化的可资贡献,进行了一一阐发,以提升2008奥运的人文价值。     

Power at the Centre: is the National Economic Council a Model for a New Way of Organising Things?

The centre of power in the UK lies in No 10 Downing Street and is surprisingly weak in terms of numbers. This article, written by a former insider, looks at how power is exercised in a variety of ways, some formal, through cabinet and its committees some informal, through the force of personality of the Prime Minister and his team especially his policy unit. It goes on to examine the creation and functioning of the National Economic Council, set up by Gordon Brown in response to the financial and economic crisis of 2007–8. It argues that this was a successful innovation towards a more structured approach that delivered faster policy formation and delivery and created a sense of unity. While it is probably a model that works best in crisis moments, it could be taken forward in other ways.     

Forecasting proportional representation elections from non-representative expectation surveys

This study tests non-representative expectation surveys as a method for forecasting elections. For dichotomous forecasts of the 2013 German election (e.g., who will be chancellor, which parties will enter parliament), two non-representative citizen samples performed equally well than a benchmark group of experts. For vote-share forecasts, the sample of more knowledgeable and interested citizens performed similar to experts and quantitative models, and outperformed the less informed citizens. Furthermore, both citizen samples outperformed prediction markets but provided less accurate forecasts than representative polls. The results suggest that non-representative surveys can provide a useful low-cost forecasting method, in particular for small-scale elections, where it may not be feasible or cost-effective to use established methods such as representative polls or prediction markets.     

Piecing it all together and forecasting who governs: The 2015 British general election

This paper discusses a new probabilistic forecasting method that was designed for the 2015 British general election. It proceeds in a series of steps from opinion poll averaging, forecasting national-level vote shares and uncertainty estimates, and subsequent simulation of hypothetical election results, through modelling of constituency polls and survey data to identify and adjust for patterns in the constituency-level variation in party performance, and finally to probabilistic forecasting of seat outcomes and of different combinations of parties commanding relevant governing majorities in parliament.     

Turkish Popular Presidential Elections: Deepening Legitimacy Issues and Looming Regime Change

This paper examines the politics of presidential elections in Turkey with particular reference to the 10 August 2014 presidential elections. It starts by scrutinising the change in the presidential election system from parliamentary to direct popular vote. It then probes the implementation of the new election rules, candidate selection, and the conduct of the campaign, followed by analysis of the election results and their influence on the Turkish record of democratisation. The paper concludes that the move to a partisan president elected by popular vote entails democratic dangers if the new incumbent does not abide by his or her constitutional role and attempts to intervene in government policy.     

逆向平权选举的工具依赖——国家法团主义协调机制

参与选举是维护公民政治权利的一种基本形式,通过立法落实各选举原则是保障公民选举权的逻辑前提。根据乘积原理,公民选举权的落实状况是由各选举原则所组成的关系系统决定的,挖掘各选举原则的核心要素并分析这些要素在选举中发挥作用的有效程度,就可以推导出落实公民选举权的一般情形。在我国,以逆向平权为基本运行规则的选举逻辑根植于国家法团主义内部,数量有限的各法定团体和组织以责任明确、非竞争性的方式参与各项政治选举,它们在政治表达和代理人选择方面给予国家以组织化的支持并自愿接受国家的控制。这种以利益协调为本位的制度设计,是各选举组织的民意代表功能明显不足的现实缘由。     

Two dimensions of the Europeanization of election programs: The case of the Czech Republic

This article represents a contribution to the debate over the Europeanization of political parties, one of the hot topics in contemporary political science. It explores the extent of Europeanization in political parties represented in the lower chamber of the Parliament of the Czech Republic by means of an analysis of party election manifestoes. The extent of Europeanization in these documents is analyzed using a bi-dimensional conceptualization. The first we call the quantitative dimension, assesses the space taken by the topic of European integration in each manifesto. The second one we call the qualitative dimension. This, using the analysis of content, measures the degree to which the European integration issue is elaborated in the programs. Using this conceptualization, we analyze the election manifestoes of five Czech political parties in the period 1996–2006.     

The Strange Death of Blasphemy

Recent years have witnessed a considerable growth in legislation and litigation concerning religion. This article examines the implications of the latest change, namely the abolition of the offences of blasphemy and blasphemous libel by section 79 of the Criminal Justice and Immigration Act 2008. First, the article provides the context by examining what has been lost, analysing the ambit of the offence, focussing on litigation in the twentieth century both in domestic courts and at the European Court of Human Rights. Second, the article seeks to explore why blasphemy has been abolished now, scrutinizing five developments that led to the abolition. The article concludes by examining the extent to which the criminal law continues to protect religious beliefs and believers, contending that while the body of the blasphemy laws is dead, its soul lives on in a plethora of other criminal laws and, more problematically, in non‐legal means of control.     

To adapt or to defend? Comparing position shifts among Bundestag candidates between 2013 and 2017

In this research note, candidate survey data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) is used to analyse positional shifts of German Bundestag parties between 2013 and 2017. Two developments make Germany a particularly interesting case: (1) the liberal but also controversial policies of the Merkel cabinet during the European refugee crisis and (2) the change of leadership within the right-wing populist party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). Applying scaling techniques to locate candidates of both elections in the same two-dimensional policy space, the analysis demonstrates that in 2017 the AfD took a distinct radical right position in the party system of Germany. Moreover, the study finds that almost all parties moved to the right on the cultural left–right dimension in 2017, whereas for the economic left–right dimension this has not been the case. Contrary to the mantra of an ideological delineation against right-wing populism, there has been a robust socio-political conservative shift in the German party system.