Presidential coattails in Taiwan: An analysis of voter- and candidate-specific data

Considerable empirical evidence demonstrates presidential coattail effects in elections held in the US. Employing hybrid logit and mixed logit models that analyze data collected from voters and candidates in Taiwan, this study examines coattail effects in a non-American setting. The findings show that presidential coattails exert powerful influences on Taiwanese citizens' vote choices and take the form of conversion. Contrary to American experiences, the mediating role of incumbency is quite minimal. Presidential coattails thus provide the president with an important source of influence in the legislative body. The linkage between presidential and legislative politics through coattails can help the operation of Taiwan's democratic institutions. Future research on voting behavior needs to consider voter characteristics as well as candidate attributes.     

Is the Democratic Party’s superdelegate system unfair to voters?

Among the reasons for the historic nature of the 2008 Democratic primary race was the attention paid to the “superdelegates”. The competitiveness of the primary and the important role the superdelegates played has led to calls for reform. This paper develops a formal model that explains why superdelegates selected one candidate over the other and why some superdelegates committed early in the primary season while others waited. Hypotheses are tested using an original dataset collected during the 2008 Democratic primary. The results suggest that although some superdelegates made their decision based on personal, idiosyncratic factors, for many superdelegates, Democratic voters played the most important role in their commitment process.     

Methodologies of election forecasting: Calling the 2010 UK “hung parliament”

Election forecasting has experienced considerable growth as a subfield within political science. Research work on United Kingdom elections has been cutting edge here. The recent 2010 general election afforded the opportunity for a trial of different forecasting methodologies. These efforts are showcased in this volume, and include standard, and not-so-standard, statistical models. Overall, these models perform well, foreseeing the unprecedented outcome of a “hung parliament”, as most pollsters and pundits did not. Moreover, they achieved this accuracy with forecasts well in advance of the election itself.     

When do voters actually think “It’s the Economy”? Evidence from the 2008 presidential campaign

Studies linking election outcomes to economics frequently assume that the economy’s salience is constant. This study shows that the economy’s salience systematically fluctuates. The number of voters focused on economic issues shifted dramatically throughout the 2008 campaign as the recession worsened and this change occurred well before the financial markets collapsed in September 2008. However, even during the recession substantial numbers of individuals said their vote was based on non-economic issues and for these individuals there was no relationship between their assessment of the economy and their electoral choice. Consistent with extant theories of issue attention, citizens who were the hardest hit by the recession and those who had the most anxiety about suffering a financial dislocation in the future were most likely to consider economic performance electorally important while secure voters were less likely to be economic voters.     

Expediency always wins over ideology: Putin’s attitudes toward the Russian Communist Party

Vladimir Putin provides us with an excellent example of a politician whose attitude toward ideology is instrumental to his political longevity. He has shown that in the fight between ideology and political expedience, to maintain authority and control within the country, or to achieve geopolitical ambitions in the international arena, ideology will almost always lose the battle. It is well known that the major threat to political power stems often not from the adversary who holds diametrically opposite views, but from the rivals who share almost the same ideological position. The closer the ideological position is of a rival, the more intense the competition. For just this reason Putin is implacable toward Communists who share many of his views. He tries as much as possible to reduce the political role of the Communist party - the most serious opposition to the regime - by using the same underhanded tactics which are used against the liberals.     

The election timing advantage: Empirical fact or fiction?

Do non-fixed election dates in Westminster parliamentary democracies create an unfair incumbent advantage? The consensus in the literature is that the incumbent party can gain an advantage at the ballot box by controlling election timing (Bakvis, 2001; Docherty, 2010; Smith, 2004; White, 2005; Wolinetz, 2005). Surprisingly, however, there is a lack of empirical evidence to support this claim. We address this lacuna by providing an empirical test of whether the election-timing power matters for incumbent vote support. We do so by employing an innovative web-based voting experiment. Our findings show that the government does gain an advantage by timing an election when it is to their advantage, but the context is limited to conditions where the election follows immediately after a heightened level of positive government coverage.     

村干部竞选者的竞选动机及特点——基于需求ERG理论的实证研究

基于需求ERG理论与适应性行为理论,研究讨论了我国现阶段参与村干部选举中的竞选者动机,并根据事实驱动的研究策略,构建了参与村干部竞选的竞选动机量表,分析了现阶段我国村干部竞选者的竞选动机特征.研究表明,村干部竞选者参与竞选主要包括社会关系、经济收入、权力权利、公共服务和跟风盲从等五种动机.研究发现,从村干部竞选者整体来看,最重要竞选动机是对社会关系的追求,其次是对经济收入和权力权利的追求,对公共服务和对跟风盲从的追求显著低于前三者;从村干部竞选者个体来看,基于性别、年龄、教育、收入、工作经历等不同的需求各异的竞选者竞选动机各有不同.研究丰富了我们对村民自治参与的认识、农民政治参与的认识,为村庄选举制度的完善提供了理论依据.     

俄罗斯的发展道路

发展道路从本质上讲是一种价值取向,概括了俄罗斯社会发展的本质和目的,体现了传统与现代、民主化与国情的深刻辩证关系,并要求建立可以确保实现俄罗斯发展理念的机制。俄罗斯发展道路的调整与完善,是第六届国家杜马选举和总统大选的主要议程。当前,俄罗斯进入了全面发展的新阶段。加强政治竞争性是新阶段的新特点,其实质是俄罗斯新权威主义政体的改革问题。俄罗斯发展道路的调整面临挑战,主要包括国家资本主义模式的前景、国家与市场关系的协调、"统一俄罗斯"党的政党现代化、行政管理模式的改变、民意政治的挑战、社会政策的实施,以及国际战略的调整等一系列问题。俄罗斯究竟具有怎样的国家特性,如何看待俄罗斯的民主,如何看待发展道路的间断性,如何在俄国历史中理解历史俄国,这些都是研究俄罗斯发展道路的基础性问题。俄罗斯的国家身份认定从历史上就与帝国意识紧紧捆绑。这种自我意识在本质上缺乏对他者文化的尊重。这是当今俄罗斯如何融入世界的关键问题。精英阶层关于俄罗斯是"欧洲太平洋国家"的身份认定、新民族主义的思想倾向与"欧亚联盟"战略互为影响,是俄罗斯发展前景中值得关注的趋势。     

新形势下推进反腐倡廉建设应树立创新思维——学习贯彻中央《建立健全惩治和预防腐败体系2008—2012年工作规划》的几点思考

《建立健全惩治和预防腐败体系2008—2012年工作规划》，是深入贯彻党的十七大精神，加强反腐倡廉建设的重要举措，对实现党的十七大确定的各项任务，夺取全面建设小康社会新胜利具有重要意义。为确保《工作规划》取得实实在在的成效，各级党委、纪委和广大党员干部必须正确理解把握其精神实质、基本要求和工作目标，善于结合实践创造性抓落实。