140 characters to victory?: Using Twitter to predict the UK 2015 General Election

This paper uses Twitter data to forecast the outcome of the 2015 UK General Election. While a number of empirical studies to date have demonstrated striking levels of accuracy in estimating election results using this new data source, there have been no genuine i.e. pre-election forecasts issued to date. Furthermore there have been widely varying methods and models employed with seemingly little agreement on the core criteria required for an accurate estimate. We attempt to address this deficit with our ‘baseline’ model of prediction that incorporates sentiment analysis and prior party support to generate a true forecast of parliament seat allocation. Our results indicate a hung parliament with Labour holding the majority of seats.     

All quiet on election day? International election observation and incentives for pre-election violence in African elections

This article argues that the increasing international interest in elections as exemplified by the rise of international election monitoring induces temporal shifts in the use of violent intimidation by political actors. The presence of international electoral missions lowers the potential for election-day violence relative to the pre-election period because domestic actors likely refrain from intimidating opposition candidates or voters before the eyes of international observers, but creates incentives for political actors to engage in violent manipulation in parts of the electoral process receiving considerably less international attention, such as the pre-election period. The article expects that international election observation increases the incidence of violent manipulation during electoral campaigns. An empirical analysis of election-related violence for African elections in the 1990–2009 period shows that the presence of election observers increases the incidence of pre-election violence, but has no effect on election-day violence.     

乡村秩序与县乡村体制——兼论农民的合作能力问题

当前农民的原子化状况使村庄很难内生秩序,而使得通过行政嵌入形成秩序成为宿命.强势的地方行政在维持地方秩序的同时又掠夺农民,谋取私利,因此必须通过体制内的县乡民主来制约地方行政.现实可行的途径是将乡镇政府改为县级的派出机构,并通过完善选举和强化县级人大职能来约束具有强势能力的县行政权力及其派出机构乡公所.当前县乡村改制的目标是"强县、弱乡、实村".     

Exchange Rate Regime,Central Bank Independence,and Political Business Cycles in Brazil

This article examines policy consequences of electoral cycles and exchange rate regime choices in Brazil. The literature on opportunistic political business cycles maintains that governments adopt expansionary economic policies before elections to mobilize voters’ support. However, research findings in Latin America based on the theory has been inconclusive. I argue that the lack of conclusive evidence in Latin America stems from measurement errors common in the use of cross-national aggregate data. Using Brazil’s monthly data from 1985 to 2006, this article shows that there are electorally induced fiscal cycles under fixed and crawling peg exchange rate regimes and electorally induced monetary cycles under floating exchange rates only when the nation’s central bank is not independent. Indeed, accounting for Brazil’s unique economic contingencies and longitudinal variations in the de facto central bank independence, its public policy behavior remarkably resembles that of the more affluent, economically stable OECD countries.

2014年印尼总统大选出现的新变化及其影响

竞争激烈、备受关注的2014年印尼总统大选最终以政治新星佐科维获胜而落下帷幕。与2004年和2009年两次总统大选相比,2014年印尼总统大选出现了很多新变化,这些新变化使得2014年的总统大选具有划时代意义,载入印尼政治发展史册。不过,印尼首位平民总统佐科维及其政党联盟没有赢得国会多数席位,这为他今后执政带来很大的挑战,他是否有政治魄力克服政治、经济上的挑战,落实他的竞选政纲,还需要拭目以待。     

俄罗斯经济快速增长的因素分析及2008年预测

2006年俄罗斯经济保持稳定增长态势。2007年俄罗斯的经济形势总体上可以概括为:经济继续稳定增长,增速进一步提高。由于宏观经济环境整体性得到改善,经济增长的内需导向型发展进一步加强,国内经济的基本因素在经济增长中起主导作用,这是俄多年来改革和调整措施逐步生效的结果。为转变增长方式,政府在经济生活中的作用继续增强。受能源供给增长乏力的限制,2007年俄罗斯出口增幅趋缓的趋势不会改变,进口增速远远高于出口增速成为2007年的显著特征。但国际高油价的利益驱动仍会使俄罗斯不断增加石油生产和出口,同时"黑色金子"也是推进俄内需作用扩张的重要基础。值得关注的是金融对经济增长的拉动作用开始显现。我们乐观地认为,2008年俄罗斯继续保持稳定的增长势头。     

2008年以来马克思主义在中国早期传播研究综述

2008年以来,学术界对马克思主义在中国早期传播的起始和特点、主体及内容、条件和原因、介质及途径等问题进行了深入探讨,总结并归纳其中观点,并提出深化这一课题的研究展望,对今后研究具有积极的理论价值和现实意义。     

行动党参加1964年马来西亚大选及其影响

1964年3月1日是新马关系史上的一个重要日期,是新马由磨合转向全面冲突的分水岭。当日,杜进才宣布,行动党要成为一个全国性的政党,参加马来亚大选。虽然杜进才解释说行动党仅是象征性地参加联邦选举,然而这很明显违背了李光耀向东姑作出的郑重承诺：不参加马来亚的选举。行动党宣布参加选举导致其与联盟的关系迅速恶化,并引发了新马潜藏已久的矛盾,也使新马朝向分离迈出了重要一步。     

评罗莎·卢森堡对苏维埃政权的批评

罗莎·卢森堡高度肯定十月革命,但对新生的苏维埃政权提出了以下六方面的批评:批评苏维埃政权把土地分给农民,从而为以后的社会主义改造设置了障碍;批评苏维埃政权片面地实行民族自决权,从而把刀子送到了敌人的手里;批评苏维埃政权解散立宪会议,从而堵塞了人民群众的积极的政治生活;批评苏维埃政权推行空想的普选权,从而使之成了一种缺乏生命力的临时凑合的"一纸空文";批评苏维埃政权取消出版自由、结社和集会的权利,从而引起公共生活的野蛮化;批评苏维埃政权把民主与专政对立起来,从而远离了社会主义.尽管罗莎·卢森堡差不多是在90多年前提出这些警示性见解的,但是所有这些见解,人们至今读起来还是感到如此具有现实感,并得到深刻的启示.     

Institutional determinants of invalid voting in post-communist Europe and Latin America

Implications from three theoretical models explaining the incidence of invalid voting are tested using data from all presidential elections in post-communist and Latin American democracies. Institutions such as the rule governing the possibility of reelection, compulsory voting, the rule for electing presidents, and the concurrence of elections, all powerfully shape the incidence of invalid voting. The article utilizes an interactive framework which implies that the effect of electoral rules is strongly conditioned by features of political competition. Although there is evidence consistent both with the voter error and protest models of invalid voting, most of the variation in invalid voting rates is explicable by the stakes associated with casting a valid as opposed to an invalid ballot.