俄罗斯的发展道路

发展道路从本质上讲是一种价值取向,概括了俄罗斯社会发展的本质和目的,体现了传统与现代、民主化与国情的深刻辩证关系,并要求建立可以确保实现俄罗斯发展理念的机制。俄罗斯发展道路的调整与完善,是第六届国家杜马选举和总统大选的主要议程。当前,俄罗斯进入了全面发展的新阶段。加强政治竞争性是新阶段的新特点,其实质是俄罗斯新权威主义政体的改革问题。俄罗斯发展道路的调整面临挑战,主要包括国家资本主义模式的前景、国家与市场关系的协调、"统一俄罗斯"党的政党现代化、行政管理模式的改变、民意政治的挑战、社会政策的实施,以及国际战略的调整等一系列问题。俄罗斯究竟具有怎样的国家特性,如何看待俄罗斯的民主,如何看待发展道路的间断性,如何在俄国历史中理解历史俄国,这些都是研究俄罗斯发展道路的基础性问题。俄罗斯的国家身份认定从历史上就与帝国意识紧紧捆绑。这种自我意识在本质上缺乏对他者文化的尊重。这是当今俄罗斯如何融入世界的关键问题。精英阶层关于俄罗斯是"欧洲太平洋国家"的身份认定、新民族主义的思想倾向与"欧亚联盟"战略互为影响,是俄罗斯发展前景中值得关注的趋势。     

选举的正反功能分析

选举的功能是指选举所产生的各种客观的、可能的影响。选举的正反功能相伴而生,但正功能永远是主要的。对选举正反功能的分析应从对公民和对国家两个角度来进行,其中,对公民的功能处于核心的位置,对国家的功能是为对公民的功能服务的,最终是为了维护并实现公民的各种利益。我们应该从完善选举技术和为选举营造和谐的社会环境两个方面来努力,以期更好地彰显选举的正功能、削减选举的反功能。     

The Economic Consequences of a Hung Parliament: Lessons from February 1974

The British general election on 10 May 2010 delivered Britain's first hung Parliament since February 1974, and in the run‐up, the Conservative party made much of the economic difficulties Britain faced in the second half of the 1970s in order to try and convince voters that anything other than a Tory vote would risk exposing the nation to the discipline of financial markets. The question of how well equipped an exceptional kind of British government is to deal with exceptional economic circumstances is therefore of paramount importance. This paper argues that the Conservative party made too much of the impact of the 1974 hung Parliament in precipitating subsequent economic crisis and suggests that as such, there is no reason to assume that the Conservative–Liberal coalition government is ill‐equipped to manage British economic affairs in difficult circumstances.     

Forecasts of the 2004 French European Election

The purpose of this article is to build and to estimate a model which explains and forecasts the outcomes of the French European elections by department, by electoral district and at the national level. The model is accurate in forecasting the elections of the past. Its forecasts for the 2004 French European election are satisfactory and take into account the recent changes in the voting system.     

Forecasting the 2015 general election using aggregate local election data

Local government election results are used to estimate a national equivalent vote that provides the basis for a general election forecast. By-elections provide the means for calculating weighted quarterly averages of national support. These show trends similar to those obtained by national polls. By-election results in the three month period leading to the general election contribute towards the national vote share calculation and seat distributions are determined by uniform national swing. Additionally, results from the main council elections from 2011 onwards are aggregated to the parliamentary constituency level and used to estimate each party's relative performance in key target seats. This information is used to fine-tune the final seat forecast which suggests a hung parliament is the most likely outcome.     

All quiet on election day? International election observation and incentives for pre-election violence in African elections

This article argues that the increasing international interest in elections as exemplified by the rise of international election monitoring induces temporal shifts in the use of violent intimidation by political actors. The presence of international electoral missions lowers the potential for election-day violence relative to the pre-election period because domestic actors likely refrain from intimidating opposition candidates or voters before the eyes of international observers, but creates incentives for political actors to engage in violent manipulation in parts of the electoral process receiving considerably less international attention, such as the pre-election period. The article expects that international election observation increases the incidence of violent manipulation during electoral campaigns. An empirical analysis of election-related violence for African elections in the 1990–2009 period shows that the presence of election observers increases the incidence of pre-election violence, but has no effect on election-day violence.     

江村村民委员会选举个案研究

江村村民委员会选举经历了候选人从"内定"到推荐、从等额到差额的转变过程,是村民意愿与上级意图磨合的结果.村民参与选举的热情与他们的切身利益、他们真正当家作主的预期以及他们对村委会的依附程度有关.基层政府在选举中既起到了积极指导又起到了变相控制的双重作用.这一个案对我们完善有关法律制度提供了有益的启示:应从制度上进一步明确乡、村之间的关系,合理地划分乡镇政府与村委会的权限;应对村民代表会议的产生、权限及其运行加以规范化和细化;应将"无候选人的直接选举"合法化等等.     

城市社区居委会选举居民参与实效的调查思考

在城市社区居委会直接选举中,居民参与的参选率统计高而实际低,且多为动员式参与。这与选举与居民利益关联度低、居委会自治权虚置、户籍歧视等原因有关。对此,有必要建立居民维权性参与模式,完善社区服务,落实居委会自治权,从登记选民向选民登记转变,并且消除选民身份歧视,普及参选资格,从而推进居居参与的深度、广度及实效。     

法院司法体制现状及改革前瞻

为确保人民法院依法独立审判,法院司法体制应当改“块块领导”为“条条领导”;解决司法活动行政化的问题,必须改革“集体负责制”、“首长负责制”为“法官负责制”;实现司法公正必须革除“暗箱操作”,强化公开审判,改“纠问式”审判方式为“控（辩）式”审判方式;法官队伍必须走“精英之路”,以高标准、高素质、高品位的法官选任制度为保证,建设一支专家型、复合型的法官队伍。     

The direct PM election and the institutional presidentialisation of parliamentary systems

The direct PM election model features as an ‘empty cell’ in typologies of political regimes. A more fine grained analysis of the model shows that it depends on the choices made on three institutional parameters (object of the election, electoral system, legislative/executive relationship) whether it constitutes a distinct regime type. A comparison of nine examples confirms that the label of a direct PM election covers a wide array of institutional designs. A direct PM election may involve a full-fledged presidentialisation, but it may also imply a marginal adaptation of the parliamentary system. The model can only be considered as an intermediate regime type when it combines the exclusive electoral origin of the executive with a parliamentary legislative/executive relationship.