The United Kingdom 2017 election: polarisation in a split issue space

Abstract

After decades in which party competition was fought in the centre ground, the 2017 UK General Election witnessed a return to more conflictual politics. This article assesses public support for the electoral strategies of the main parties and examines the extent to which the issues the parties campaigned on resonated with their own supporters, as well as with the wider public. Drawing on the issue-yield framework, the article shows that the Conservative campaign – generally considered to be badly run – did not focus on issues that would fully exploit the opportunities for expanding support that were open to the party. Labour, by contrast, played a much better hand. While taking a clear left-wing stance on many policies that were popular with its constituency, the party also skilfully emphasised valence issues that Labour is often seen as more credible on, such as healthcare and education.     

Freedom of choice,gender equality,or employment promotion? Finnish party positions on childcare in the light of election manifestos 2015

The principle of freedom of choice in childcare matters has been a central element of Finnish family policy since the 1980s and is something that makes the country unique in an international comparison. One the one hand, this principle has been manifested as a legislated right for parents, notably mothers, to choose paid work supported by the use of public childcare. On the other hand, it has also given parents with children under three the right to stay at home with their children and to receive a child home care allowance during this period. This dualism has been widely popular among parents and has also been seen by most leading parties as something that is good for families. However, since the outbreak of the international financial crisis, this system has faced increasing criticism from some experts and politicians, which has made the principle of freedom of choice, and especially the child home care allowance/leave, susceptible to renegotiation. This article investigates how the principle of freedom of choice was politicized by eight leading parties during the Finnish parliamentary election campaign in 2015, through an analysis of election manifestos. First, we analyse to what extent this principle was politicized, and by whom. Secondly, we study how the principle was framed. The findings show that the principle of freedom of choice was a rather politicized topic, creating a cleavage between conservative and leftist/liberal parties. Moreover, they indicate a renegotiation of this principle in favour of higher parental employment promotion and gender equality.     

工会主席直接选举现实与有关规定比较分析--以南方某市为例

对工会主席直接选举,工会外部的学者认为这是工会内部机制改革的一大举措;但工会内部的一些同志却认为无非是落实了原有的工会选举规定.事实上,现在正在进行试点的"直接选举",真正的新意在于主席、副主席的候选人如何确定?由谁提出?是否需要候选人形成后再进行"审查同意"?南方某市总工会通过规定民主确定候选人,民主确定选举人而形成的工会主席直接选举试点,是比现行工会规定的直接选举更民主的直接选举.这一试点推动了工会民主化的进程.     

Inequalities and crime

The study of inequalities undergirds much of criminology. At times, however, we may take the impact of inequalities for granted and miss opportunities to problematize the strong link between inequalities and crime. In this address, I maintain that it is important to step back and recognize that economic, race, ethnic, gender, and other inequalities are at the core of criminology. More explicit consensus about the centrality of the link between inequalities and crime will allow for our field to speak to the major social and political issues of our time and will strengthen the field. In this address, I highlight some fruitful avenues of research on inequalities and crime. I then argue that the concept of intersecting inequalities can provide additional connective tissue between research focused on economic, race, ethnic, and gender inequalities. By drawing on recent evaluations of the concept in other fields, I discuss key issues that must be addressed in employing an intersecting inequalities approach and then suggest solutions. I conclude that use of an intersecting inequalities approach has the potential to uncover important insights and span research areas, thereby pushing forward our understanding of the impact of economic, race, ethnic, gender, and other inequalities on crime and victimization.     

Political corruption,economy, and citizens' evaluation of democracy in South Korea

South Korean politics has been haunted by numerous corruption scandals as well as the prosecution of politicians and their cronies for their corruption. Yet despite the prevalence and salience of political corruption, many citizens of South Korea tend to overlook the problem by continuing to support corrupt politicians and administrations. This study defines under what circumstances political corruption shapes citizens' judgment of government and the political system as a whole in South Korea. The results indicate that national economic conditions as a perceptual screen mediate the effect of political corruption on the evaluation of democratic governance.     

Cognitive mobilization and electoral support for the Democratic Party in Hong Kong

The bases of electoral choice vary. Citizens differ in their ability to reason and make up their minds in different ways. Hong Kong appears to be the most likely case for the idea of cognitive mobilization, because of the the absence of socio-economic mobilization, the paucity of political mobilization, the novelty of partisanship, the high level of education, and the prosperous and easily accessible mass media. Findings on the legislative election in 1998, however, show that partisan attachment remains a powerful factor in electoral choice. Still, political information is more important as it broadens the basis of electoral choice. Specifically, the less-informed voters voted for the Democratic Party (DP) solely on the basis of partisan attachment. In comparison, the vote of the better-informed voters was broadly based, with evaluative factors overtaking partisanship in importance. This paper provides a contribution to the understanding of constrained elections in a partial democracy.     

近代中国社会地方民主政治实践的历史考察——以民初湖南省地方议员选举为例

民主所具有的普世价值,历来为人们所重视并进而成为整个人类孜孜以求的价值目标。理想的民主政治,不但需要民主的"民"具有"众"的属性,而且需要民众具有丰富的民主政治经验和较高的民主政治素养。然而"民"的范围是随着民众的逐渐觉醒而不断增大的,民众的民主政治经验和素养也不是与生俱来的,需要民众在社会政治实践中不断地参与,持续地积累和提高。民主是理想与经验的统一。     

推进我国选举制度建设的几点思考

选举制度建设直接关系到党的领导和执政地位的实现，关系到人民代表大会制度的发展和完善，人民当家作主权利的实现，关系到依法治国方略的贯彻实施。我国现行选举制度存在的主要问题是，制度规定过于分散，直接选举过于频繁且范围过窄，竞争不够充分，不尊重被提名人意愿，候选人介绍存在缺陷，选区划分制度不科学，选举程序不够严密，选举制度与代表制度存在冲突，代表结构比例要求与区域选举制存在冲突，救济和裁判制度不健全。选举制度建设需要顶层设计，通盘考虑，要以坚持人民主体地位、不断提高人民当家作主水平为价值导向，走法制化道路。一方面要通过改革和完善选举立法，解决现行法律制度中存在的问题，另一方面又要有意识地进行实践探索和制度创新，回应公民民主法制意识的提高对选举制度建设的要求。     

Do local elections predict the outcome of the next general election? Forecasting British general elections from local election national vote share estimates

This article outlines a method for forecasting British general elections from national level vote shares at local elections. Although local elections are notionally ‘local’, the evidence suggests that they at least partly mirror national electoral fortunes. A simple general election vote share on local election vote share regression model that accounts for partisan differences and incumbency effects fits past data with reasonable accuracy. Based on the results of the 2013 and 2014 local elections, the model forecast a 56% probability of hung parliament, with a 78% probability of the Conservatives receiving the largest share of the vote.     

Influential News: Impact of Print Media Reports on the Fulfillment of Election Promises

Building on the mandate theory of democracy and literature on media coverage of elections, this article theorizes why information regarding party promises that is transmitted through the media could affect the former’s fulfillment. Utilizing a unique data set composed of 2,676 promises issued by 14 legislative parties over a 15-year period in post-communist Bulgaria, the study is among the first to longitudinally analyze the role of media in pledge fulfillment, while controlling for institutional and other explanations. The conclusions demonstrate that media reporting of election promises affects the fulfillment of pledges made by coalition parties, when more than one outlet has printed a promise, and under conditions of strong ideological divisions within the cabinet. Furthermore, the impact of media reporting is greater for pledges that do not otherwise have a high likelihood of being fulfilled.