Turnout and weather disruptions: Survey evidence from the 2012 presidential elections in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy

This paper examines the rational choice reasoning that is used to explain the correlation between low voter turnout and the disruptions caused by weather related phenomena in the United States. Using in-person as well as phone survey data collected in New York City where the damage and disruption caused by Hurricane Sandy varied by district and even by city blocks, we explore, more directly than one can with aggregate data, whether individuals who were more affected by the disruptions caused by Hurricane Sandy were more or less likely to vote in the 2012 Presidential Election that took place while voters still struggled with the devastation of the hurricane and unusually low temperatures. Contrary to the findings of other scholars who use aggregate data to examine similar questions, we find that there is no difference in the likelihood to vote between citizens who experienced greater discomfort and those who experienced no discomfort even in non-competitive districts. We theorize that this is in part due to the resilience to costs and higher levels of political engagement that vulnerable groups develop under certain institutional conditions.     

让“标杆成为标准,示范成为规范”的实践路径思考

"让标杆成为标准,示范成为规范"是发挥典型示范效应的目标要求,也是选树宣传典型的根本目的所在。如何"让标杆成为标准,示范成为规范",是宣传思想文化工作面临的新课题,需要扎实做好实践路径研究。坚持"三个注重"选树典型,发挥"三个作用"培养典型,把握"三个环节"宣传典型是胜利油田思想文化工作趟出的新路子。     

论我国法官选任制度的重构

2002年7月18日,最高人民法院发布了《关于加强法官队伍职业化建设的若干意见》,提出了法官职业化的目标,而法官职业化目标的实现,最关键的是改革和完善现有的法官选任制度,把真正高素质的法律人才选拔到人民法院。因此,提高法官任职的社会阅历条件、明确法官选任程序、建立严格科学的考核制度,建立起符合法官职业化特点的完备的法官选任制度十分必要。     

当前党内选举制度存在的主要问题及对策

党内选举对党内民主的发展起着重要的推动作用。当前,中国共产党党内选举制度还存在党内选举的具体条例不够健全和完善,党内选举过程中还存在着一些不符合民主精神的问题和现象。必须要在坚持选举的合法性原则、程序性原则、公平竞争性原则的基础上,采取各种科学、有效的措施,使党内选举制度更为科学、民主。     

市场经济与民主政治的两种互动

西方是市场经济催生民主政治,我国作为东方大国则是民主政治催生市场经济。当今要加快社会主义民主政治建设才能使市场经济健康发展,否则社会主义市场经济就有蜕变为权贵资本主义市场经济的危险。当前加快社会主义民主政治建设的捷径是稳妥推行县区级、乡镇级首长的直接民主选举。     

从衡阳贿选案看地方人大选举制度的改革与完善

地方人大贿选的本质是金钱政治、权钱交易,它给国家和社会造成的危害是严重的。衡阳贿选案是地方人大贿选中较为典型的案例,深刻地暴露出我国地方人大选举制度的设计缺陷,如候选人提名制度不合理、缺乏相应的竞选机制、监督机制和处罚机制不完善等。推进地方人大制度的健全和完善,要建立规范的代表候选人提名制度,扩大选民和代表联合提名候选人的比例;在选举中切实落实差额选举制度,引入正当竞选机制;健全监督机制,加大处罚力度。     

THE POLITICAL SYSTEM IN IRAQI KURDISTAN: PARTY RIVALRIES AND FUTURE PERSPECTIVES

The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) possesses many of the traditional hallmarks of political authority and society, such as state institutions (an Executive, Legislature, and Judiciary), political parties, civil society, elections, and local government. Nevertheless, for the past twenty-five years, it has failed to create a unified political system that adheres to a mutually accepted form of government. Political division, in particular, a rivalry between the main parties, has proved to be a real impediment to the political development and stability of the Region.

This article argues that there is a relationship between the nature and structure of the political parties, which reflects interests' political views of party leaders, and the political systems that have been proposed as solutions to a lack of political stability in Iraqi Kurdistan. Specifically, it argues that the individual character of the main parties, the PUK and the KDP above all, explains why they favour one system of government over the one advanced by their rival and is the core political dispute in Iraqi Kurdistan currently. Finally, the article concludes by identifying prospective systems of government available the KRI and the potential consequences of each.     

政治科学预测方法研究——以选举预测为例

预测是人类的基本认知活动。作为社会科学预测性研究的重要领域,选举预测是促进政治学理论和方法创新的动力。选举预测不仅限于民调,科学的选举预测可以划分为四类范式:意见聚合范式;模型范式;混合范式;大数据范式。每类范式包含若干种预测方法,不同预测方法在准确性、超前性、解释力、可重复性、中立性和预测成本等评判标准上各具优势,预测方法的选择是基于预测目标和应用场景的综合权衡。目前,选举预测领域呈现多元化、交叉互补、跨学科的发展趋势;其未来发展方向是“理论驱动”与“数据驱动”相结合、微观预测变量与宏观预测变量相结合、预测与解释相结合,以政治科学为基础,通过跨学科合作和前沿技术手段推进预测范式的创新,并在预测实践中不断更新升级。预测性研究与解释性研究可以构成“双螺旋”的共生互补关系,共同致力于增进人类对复杂政治活动的理解和研判,提升政治学研究的科学水平和政策应用价值。     

ThePolitical TricksofAbe

正Japan’s leader hopes to salvage his power by way of an early election Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dissolved the House of Representatives,or the lower house in the country’s bicameral parliament,on November 21.A consequent snap election will be held on December 14,two years ahead of schedule.In recent months,the Japanese economy has continued to slide and entered a technical     

Mid-Term Misfortune

正Barack obama strives for a sound legacy Predictably,the U.S.Republican Party(GOP)took back the Senate after eight years in a landslide victory during the mid-term congressional election in November.While the GOP is still in control of the House of Representatives,it also gained ground in state governor elections in Illinois,Maryland,Iowa and Colorado—the traditional spheres of influence of the Democrats.