Mid-Term Misfortune

正Barack obama strives for a sound legacy Predictably,the U.S.Republican Party(GOP)took back the Senate after eight years in a landslide victory during the mid-term congressional election in November.While the GOP is still in control of the House of Representatives,it also gained ground in state governor elections in Illinois,Maryland,Iowa and Colorado—the traditional spheres of influence of the Democrats.     

ThePolitical TricksofAbe

正Japan’s leader hopes to salvage his power by way of an early election Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dissolved the House of Representatives,or the lower house in the country’s bicameral parliament,on November 21.A consequent snap election will be held on December 14,two years ahead of schedule.In recent months,the Japanese economy has continued to slide and entered a technical     

A Semicolon,Not a Full Stop

正Ukraine’s new president faces big challenges in managing both domestic affairs and relations with Russia Ukrainian candy tycoon Petro Poroshenko’s presidential election victory was unsurpris-ing.What did come as a surprise,however,was that it happened in     

从衡阳贿选案看地方人大选举制度的改革与完善

地方人大贿选的本质是金钱政治、权钱交易,它给国家和社会造成的危害是严重的。衡阳贿选案是地方人大贿选中较为典型的案例,深刻地暴露出我国地方人大选举制度的设计缺陷,如候选人提名制度不合理、缺乏相应的竞选机制、监督机制和处罚机制不完善等。推进地方人大制度的健全和完善,要建立规范的代表候选人提名制度,扩大选民和代表联合提名候选人的比例;在选举中切实落实差额选举制度,引入正当竞选机制;健全监督机制,加大处罚力度。     

Do local elections predict the outcome of the next general election? Forecasting British general elections from local election national vote share estimates

This article outlines a method for forecasting British general elections from national level vote shares at local elections. Although local elections are notionally ‘local’, the evidence suggests that they at least partly mirror national electoral fortunes. A simple general election vote share on local election vote share regression model that accounts for partisan differences and incumbency effects fits past data with reasonable accuracy. Based on the results of the 2013 and 2014 local elections, the model forecast a 56% probability of hung parliament, with a 78% probability of the Conservatives receiving the largest share of the vote.     

推进我国选举制度建设的几点思考

选举制度建设直接关系到党的领导和执政地位的实现,关系到人民代表大会制度的发展和完善,人民当家作主权利的实现,关系到依法治国方略的贯彻实施。我国现行选举制度存在的主要问题是,制度规定过于分散,直接选举过于频繁且范围过窄,竞争不够充分,不尊重被提名人意愿,候选人介绍存在缺陷,选区划分制度不科学,选举程序不够严密,选举制度与代表制度存在冲突,代表结构比例要求与区域选举制存在冲突,救济和裁判制度不健全。选举制度建设需要顶层设计,通盘考虑,要以坚持人民主体地位、不断提高人民当家作主水平为价值导向,走法制化道路。一方面要通过改革和完善选举立法,解决现行法律制度中存在的问题,另一方面又要有意识地进行实践探索和制度创新,回应公民民主法制意识的提高对选举制度建设的要求。     

THE POLITICAL SYSTEM IN IRAQI KURDISTAN: PARTY RIVALRIES AND FUTURE PERSPECTIVES

The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) possesses many of the traditional hallmarks of political authority and society, such as state institutions (an Executive, Legislature, and Judiciary), political parties, civil society, elections, and local government. Nevertheless, for the past twenty-five years, it has failed to create a unified political system that adheres to a mutually accepted form of government. Political division, in particular, a rivalry between the main parties, has proved to be a real impediment to the political development and stability of the Region.

This article argues that there is a relationship between the nature and structure of the political parties, which reflects interests' political views of party leaders, and the political systems that have been proposed as solutions to a lack of political stability in Iraqi Kurdistan. Specifically, it argues that the individual character of the main parties, the PUK and the KDP above all, explains why they favour one system of government over the one advanced by their rival and is the core political dispute in Iraqi Kurdistan currently. Finally, the article concludes by identifying prospective systems of government available the KRI and the potential consequences of each.     

内战域内蔓延的影响条件：选举支持与地理环境

理解内战中武装冲突波及范围的影响因素对当事国和国际冲突管理机制都具有重要意义。既有研究普遍认为,选举事件和地理环境要素可能对国内冲突发生和发展过程起显著作用,但关于这些因素如何作用于内战的域内蔓延路径仍存在深入讨论的空间。不同于现有文献的常见解释,通过讨论选举中地方投票支持情况和社会经济地理环境对各地武装冲突爆发的作用,并以斯里兰卡内战案例中的次国家行政单元为经验观察对象,在同一分析框架内考察两类条件在内战蔓延过程中的实际影响。实证研究发现,不同单元之间的武装冲突风险存在空间集聚效应;相比于自然地理条件,反映社会经济地理条件的城乡距离更加显著地影响本地冲突风险;较短的城乡距离在增加当地冲突风险的同时也会增加临近单元的冲突风险;地方对中央政府的选举支持在调节武装冲突发生和风险蔓延方面的作用并不稳健。     

Parties’ issue strategies on the drawing board: the 2017 Austrian case

Abstract

Parties may rely on different issue agendas when tailoring their electoral campaigns in an attempt to win elections. This paper compares two key party issue strategies to examine which one the victorious Austrian Peoples’ Party (ÖVP) relied on the most during the 2017 Austrian election campaign vis-à-vis its main competitors. These two key party strategies are the ‘riding-the-wave’ model, which posits that parties focus on issues that currently concern voters the most and the recent ‘issue-yield model’, which instead suggests that parties adopt strategic behaviour targeting all those issues with genuine opportunities for electoral expansion. It is found that, compared to the other main parties in the 2017 Austrian election campaign, the ÖVP was the one most clearly relying on the issue-yield approach. These results have important implications for our understanding of electoral campaigns, party’s exploitation of issue strategies, and voter representation beyond the Austrian case.     

Race,Partisanship, and Political Trust Following <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bush versus Gore</Emphasis> (2000)

In contrast to what we know about the sources of political trust among whites, recent research suggests that political mistrust among blacks indicates discontent with the political system. The current study adds to research investigating racial differences in political trust by examining racial differences in the influence of the 2000 United States presidential election on political trust. Specifically, I test for whether whites and blacks adjusted their trust in government in response to the Supreme Court’s decision in Bush versus Gore (2000) and whether the influence of the Court’s decision on trust was dependent on partisan identification. The findings indicate that blacks perceived the Court’s decision as illegitimate, reinforcing their mistrust in their political system.