Parliamentary and presidential elections in Mongolia, 2012 and 2013

The 2012 Mongolian parliamentary election was historical as a new mixed-member majoritarian system was implemented. Compared with 2008, or even 2004, the 2012 election outcome indicates an at least tentative disruption of the bipolarisation of electoral politics in Mongolia. However, unlike in the past when the fragmentation of the party system was caused by the parties of the so-called “democratic camp”, the latest split occurred within the so-called “post-communist camp”. The presidential election took place on 26 June 2013. Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj of the Democratic Party was elected president and for the first time since the democratic transition of 1990, most executive and legislative powers shifted to the Democratic Party.     

'Brazil Needs to Change': Change as Iteration and the Iteration of Change in Brazil's 2002 Presidential Election1

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's triumph in Brazil's 2002 presidential election was construed in terms of a promise of radical change against the holders of the status quo . This article argues that in fact a more subtle political game was a stake in the election, a contest over the meaning and limits of change itself. The article examines how the various players – Lula da Silva, outgoing president Fernando Henrique Cardoso and the PSDB's presidential candidate José Serra – invoked and iterated a discourse of change to define and redefine the political dividing lines that marked out the electoral dispute and attempted to set or fix the distinctions between their political positions.     

刑事罪犯参政权的法律保障

当今社会罪犯参政权保障问题已成为我国与西方敌对势力在国际人权斗争中的焦点之一。本文主要阐述未附加剥夺政治权利的刑事罪犯参政权的宪法和法律保障;指出在实际选举中,他们的选举权一般被停止,甚至被非法剥夺的主要原因;并提出在构建和谐社会目标下,执法部门必须与时俱进,转变执法观念,保障未被剥夺政治权利刑事罪犯的合法选举权。     

论基层人大代表选举制度与公民政治参与

人民代表大会制度是我国公民政治参与水平和效果的直接体现，基层人大代表选举是我国公民政治参与的主要舞台。当前，我国基层人大代表选举中存在一些问题，主要表现在基层人大代表的确立制度存有缺陷、人大代表候选人与选民的沟通不畅、选民的实际参与度有限三个方面。完善基层人大代表选举制度，提高公民政治参与的有效度，必须提高人大代表确立的竞争性，增强人大代表与选民的合意性。     

跨境犯罪中死刑问题研究

由于中国内地与港澳死刑政策的冲突,及三法域间各自独立的刑事管辖权的并行存在,使得跨境犯罪的死刑案件的司法协助变得更为复杂。本文探讨两个问题:跨境犯罪死刑案件中死刑犯是否该移交及移交的标准。在对前一个问题作出肯定回答的同时,进一步论述在跨境犯罪死刑犯移交中应遵循坚持“属地管辖原则”为基础,加强三法域间平等的“协议管辖”协商。从立法和司法方面进行三法域间刑事方面的联系与协助,有效打击严重的跨境刑事犯罪。     

基层人大选举中“贿选”行为探析

随着我国社会的全面转型,社会的政治生态环境也发生了很大变化,一些极具负面效应的政治行为也初见端倪。近年来,基层人大选举中出现的“贿选”行为正是这种大背景之下的一种腐败现象。文章在对基层人大“贿选”行为的内涵、特征进行分析的基础上,探究了这种行为产生、发展的社会历史根源,并尝试提出相关对策。     

中国选举制度的发展趋向

我国的选举制度虽然有很多优点,但还需要改革,逐步走向完善合理.我国选举制度的发展趋向是:中国选举制度保证中国共产党是唯一的执政党;逐步扩大直接选举的范围;选举引入竞争机制;完善代表候选人的推举办法,借鉴外国经验,联名推举的人数适当增加;逐步做到"选民"登记无误;完善选举监督机制,完善选举法.     

干部选拔标准的评判问题及其消解

干部选拔之所以存在问题,不仅在于干部选拔的标准难以量化、量化不彻底或量化原则难以贯彻,还在于干部政绩评判工作的复杂性、干部评判意识的薄弱性和评判体系的不合理性。解决干部选拔标准的评判问题的关键是解决政绩评判问题;解决政绩评判问题的根本途径是建立健全科学的政绩评判制度,最终解决好“谁评判”、“评判谁”、“评什么”、“怎么评”的问题。     

A Question of Authority: Religion and Cultural Conflict in the 2004 Election

In this study I adopt a view of cultural conflict that extends beyond the usual set of controversial “moral” issues like abortion and gay rights to include symbolic issues related to patriotism and group affect. Using a set of survey items asking about respondents’ preferences in child-rearing, I create a measure of individuals’ orientations toward authority that proves to be a potent predictor of attitudes on cultural issues, affect toward social groups, party identification, and vote choice. This authority effect persists even in the presence of extensive multivariate controls for demographic and religious variables. I find that both authority measures and religion measures shape political attitudes, suggesting the need for a multi-faceted approach to understanding cultural conflict.

Markets vs. polls as election predictors: An historical assessment

Prediction markets have drawn considerable attention in recent years as a tool for forecasting elections. But how accurate are they? Do they outperform the polls, as some scholars argue? Do prices in election markets carry information beyond the horserace in the latest polls? This paper assesses the accuracy of US presidential election betting markets in years before and after opinion polling was introduced. Our results are provocative. First, we find that market prices are far better predictors in the period without polls than when polls were available. Second, we find that market prices of the pre-poll era predicted elections almost on par with polls following the introduction of scientific polling. Finally, when we have both market prices and polls, prices add nothing to election prediction beyond polls. To be sure, early election markets were (surprisingly) good at extracting campaign information without scientific polling to guide them. For more recent markets, candidate prices largely follow the polls.