浅谈俄罗斯选举制度

选举是古老的政权组织形式,是由选民依照法律规定的程序和方式,推举民意机关代表或国家公职人员的政治活动。选举制度是选举活动中必须遵循的有关选举的基本原则、程序、方式、方法等一系列规则制度的总称。各国在宪法或宪法性法律和宪法惯例中都规定了本国的选举制,有些国家还有专门的有关选举的制定法和判例法。文章简要介绍俄罗斯的选举制度。     

German gays go green? Voting behaviour of lesbians,gays, and bisexuals in the 2021 German federal election

Previous analyses have shown the existence of a sexuality gap in voting behaviour between those who identify as lesbian, gay, or bisexual (LGB), and those who identify as heterosexual (Hertzog 1996). On the basis of these findings, it is generally assumed that LGBs vote primarily for liberal and left-wing parties because they are most likely to represent the group's interests in the political space. Using the 2021 German federal election as a case study, this article provides substantial findings, showing that, when controlled for the ideological proximity between voters and parties, sexuality affects in several ways how LGBs identify with and vote for parties in Germany. Positive effects can be demonstrated for the Greens, the Left, and – in contrast to previous assumptions – the far-right AfD. This is the first study to examine systematically the voting behaviour of LGBs and heterosexuals in Germany.     

农村民主选举制度的正负效能分析

民主选举是村民自治的开始,在实践中,不少人认为村民自治就只是搞民主选举,从而过分夸大村委会选举的民主成就,因此,有必要对农村自治中的民主选举制度进行理性评价。事实上,农村民主选举对村民、候选人、村庄以及国家治理既能产生正效能,也会产生负效能。客观认识其在村民自治中的地位和作用,对于推动农村基层民主的真正实现具有重要意义。     

Aggregate level forecasting of the 2010 general election in Britain: The Seats-Votes model

The Seats-Votes model forecasts party seat shares in the House of Commons using data from general elections and opinion polls between 1945 and 2009. The model is built on a generalisation of the cube rule which provided a fairly accurate method of translating votes into seats when Britain was effectively a two party system prior to the 1970s. It combines past information on seat shares in the current Parliament with voting intention data six months prior to the general election to forecast seat shares. Applied to the task of forecasting the outcome of a general election in early May of 2010, it predicts a hung Parliament, with the Conservatives as the largest party. The relatively small sample used to estimate the model means that predictions about the size of the parties in Parliament are quite tentative, though predictions about the likelihood of a hung Parliament are more certain.     

Nowcasting V. polling: The 2010 UK election trials

This paper first offers a final forecast for the May 2010 UK general election based on our “two-step model” [Nadeau, R., Lewis-Beck, M.S., Bélanger, É., 2009. Election forecasting in the United Kingdom: a two-step model. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 19, 333-358.]. That model is then used to explore a new technique, “nowcasting.” We examine our model “nowcasts,” comparing it to the classic forecasting strategy of the vote intention poll, across the contemporary election period, 2005-2010. As is shown, nowcasting offers forecasting advantages that simple polling does not. Most notably, the nowcast provides variation that appears much more subject to substantive explanation of the electoral cycle, and it provides predictions with a three-month lead.     

论普选对香港特区政府的影响

即将实行的香港普选,既符合人民主权原则,也使特区政府面临中央和民众的"双重问责"。一方面,当行政决策的地方主体性被加强的同时,特区政府必须处理好与中央意志的平衡问题;另一方面,普选将推动政党、压力团体和民众的广泛政治参与,通过监督决策过程和效果,促使政务公开和透明,使特区政府更加民主和谨慎决策。     

普京两次总统竞选纲领之比较

1999年底和2012年初,普京两次参加俄罗斯总统竞选,两次提出客观冷静、直面问题、聚拢民心的竞选纲领,系统回答了俄罗斯现状、世界局势和俄罗斯向何处去的问题。普京两次高票获胜后,其竞选纲领就成为施政纲领,成为团结和引领俄罗斯人民建设国家的重要文件。比较两份纲领,能够看出间隔12年普京对国际环境和俄罗斯地位的判断不同、对国家作用的认识发生了改变、提出的经济发展模式也不同,但在危机意识、强调独立发展和团结一致重建俄罗斯等方面则有延续性。     

So Close and Yet So Far: Strategies in the 13th Malaysian Elections

Abstract

This article examines the strategies employed by the ruling coalition, Barisan Nasional (or National Front), and the opposition alliance, Pakatan Rakyat (People’s Alliance), in the 13th general election held in Malaysia in May 2013. It argues that while the opposition used the right strategy for the 2013 campaign, it lost because it could not overcome the three biggest hurdles for opposition politics in Malaysia: East Malaysia, the rural Malay votes and a biased electoral system.     

Legislative Dissent without Reprisal? An Alternative View of Speaker Selection

Very little research has been devoted to examining the nature of Speaker selection in legislatures. This article attempts to provide a new perspective in which future research could examine the election of Speakers. A collective action perspective is put forward, which sees three groups of actors execute separate strategies to reach their own ends: the backbench, the executive and the opposition. These factors are tested on the Speaker selection exercises in the Ontario legislature. In the case study, it was found that the executive rarely gets their choice of Speaker, and three factors identified in the legislative dissent literature are utilised to examine these private acts of dissent: party popularity, cabinet size and the percentage of new legislators entering the party at each legislative term. It was found that the Speaker selection process involves three groups, each with their own preference order in decision-making.