理性看待中国在世界银行投票权的扩大

我国在世界银行投票权的扩大,为更好维护国家利益提供了平台,为实现发达国家与发展中国家平等享受世界银行投票权奠定了基础,也为中国提高在世界银行话语权提供了信用支撑。但是,我们不应该对中国在世界银行投票权扩大的实际价值有过高的期望,投票权扩大并不能改变中国处于发展中国家的定位,也没有动摇美国一股独大的局面,投票权扩大意味着中国将承担更多的责任,因而应理性看待这一改革。     

Economics and elections: Effects deep and wide

Introduction to a Special Edition of Electoral Studies, by the co-editors. Papers included in this special issue were originally presented at a pair of conferences on economic voting that were held at the University of Iowa and Texas A&M University in the spring of 2012.     

First-order,second-order or third-rate? A comparison of turnout in European,local and national elections in the Netherlands

Second-order elections are characterized by low turnout. According to the second-order theory this is because people feel there is less at stake. This study tests whether the less at stake argument holds at the macro and micro level using panel survey data obtained in three different Dutch elections. Furthermore, it examines whether campaigns' mobilizing potential differs between first- and second-order elections. We find that at the macro level perceived stakes and low turnout go hand in hand and differ strongly between national, local and European elections. At the micro level the impact of perceived stakes on turnout is limited and contingent on the type of election. Also, campaign exposure affects turnout, but the effect is substantially larger in second-order contests.     

累积投票制的引入与实践——以上市公司为例的经验性观察

在学界和社会各界的呼吁下,2005年公司法修订时引入了任意性累积投票制。累积投票制作为公司董事、监事的选举制度,目的是为了保护少数股东的权利。虽然立法上采取了任意性累积投票制,但实践中绝大多数样本上市公司实施了累积投票制,这与监管机构和证券交易所对累积投票制倾向于采取强制主义的态度是分不开的。实证数据显示,一方面在目前的股权结构下累积投票制的实施有很强的现实意义,另一方面累积投票制在上市公司中未能得以有效实施。存在诸多有待解决的影响累积投票制有效实施的问题,包括等额选举、股东大会会议出席率低以及表决权的不当行使等实践层面的问题,也包括提名资格限制、当选原则、选举方法以及独立董事、非独立董事和监事分别选举等制度层面的问题。从数学的角度分析,累积投票制在我国上市公司中存在实施的空间和价值。     

Dual citizenship and sovereignty

Multiple and dual citizenship in the past decades have become widely accepted worldwide. Leading scholars in citizenship studies claim that the growing tolerance of dual citizenship signals the weakening of state sovereignty and the emergence of transnational, post-national or cosmopolitan norms. This paper argues that multiple citizenship standards are neither universally accepted, nor normatively compelling. The cases referred to are intended to demonstrate that contrary to the above assessments, dual citizenship is also used by states to increase their sovereignty, for example promoting national interest abroad through expatriates and trans-border minorities. It is also argued that, in addition to the classical territorial sovereignty- and security-related dilemmas, dual-citizenship policies may violate the norms of democratic equality and popular sovereignty. The paper concludes that the inevitably growing toleration of non-monogamous state-citizen relationships should not be interpreted as a normative justification of promiscuous citizenship policies.     

Rising powers at the UN: an analysis of the voting behaviour of brics in the General Assembly

This article examines the long-term trends of foreign policy convergence of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (brics) to determine the similarity of their positions on world issues, as they seek to ‘insert’ themselves more fully into global decision making. The analysis is based upon their votes in the UN General Assembly. The article compiles two indexes of voting for the period 1974–2011. Both demonstrate a high and now growing degree of cohesion among brics. Their voting is broken down by pairs to show common themes and the major issue divergences, and how often individual states voted with others. Nuclear disarmament and human rights are the two areas that reveal persisting divergences between these states.     

Attack and Response in Political Campaigns: An Experimental Study in Two Parts

Although there is evidence that negative advertising “works” at least some of the time, little is known about how candidates should respond when they are attacked. In this study, we proceed from the assumption that hard-hitting attacks on relevant topics (those that speak to how someone will perform in office), if well-crafted and credible, are most likely to have the desired outcome and, hence, are the ones that targeted candidates can least afford to ignore. We use data from two experiments, first, to confirm this assumption and, second, to assess the relative effectiveness of five response types: counterattacks, denials, counterimaging, justifications, and charges of mudslinging. Our results suggest that while some responses work better than others, there are a variety of ways, both positive and negative, to “reframe” a campaign attack so as to diminish its potential impact on voters.     

Economic Voting Appeals in Congressional Campaigns

Although they agree that economics and elections are intertwined, theories of economic voting disagree on the policy focus (on positions taken or outcomes achieved) and time horizon (retrospective or prospective) that guides voters’ decisions. Most research on these debates looks at the considerations voters weigh. Instead, I explore the types of economic voting that candidates encourage through their campaign appeals. Content-coded advertising data from the 2004 congressional elections show that appeals focus more on policy positions than outcomes and more on the past than the future. Consistent with predictions from emphasis allocation theory, strategic incentives and electoral context shape the exact mix of economic appeals campaigns make. When promoting their own candidacy, politicians ask voters to think about (more unifying) future economic outcomes; when attacking their opponent’s candidacy, they ask voters to think about (more divisive) past policy positions. In districts experiencing worsening economic conditions, voters are exposed to more information about policy outcomes; in districts where the incumbent is ideologically “out of step,” they hear more about policy positions. Studies that seek to evaluate competing theories of economic voting are thus likely to draw misleading conclusions if they treat the information environment as a homogeneous constant: Campaigns in different districts, facing different strategic incentives, encourage significantly different types of economic voting.     

Reconsidering individual-level heterogeneity in economic voting

This paper proposes a general theory of individual-level heterogeneity in economic voting based on the perspective that the strength of the relationship varies with factors that influence the relevance of the economic evaluation to the vote choice. We posit that the electoral relevance of the economic evaluation increases with the strength of partisanship as well as political sophistication. Given the strong correlation between partisanship and sophistication, this theoretical perspective casts doubt on extant evidence that more sophisticated voters are more likely to hold the incumbent party electorally accountable for macroeconomic performance since this result might be an artifact of failing to control for the economic evaluation being more relevant to the vote choice of stronger partisans. Our statistical investigation of this question finds no significant evidence that sophistication conditions the economic voting relationship once the conditioning effect of partisanship is included in the model. This finding suggests that individual-level heterogeneity in the strength of the economic voting relationship is largely due to stronger partisans voting more consistently with their national economic evaluation than to more sophisticated voters being more policy-oriented by holding the incumbent party more electorally accountable for macroeconomic performance.     

Valence politics and electoral choice in a new democracy: The case of Taiwan

After two peaceful alternations of political power in a single decade, Taiwan is a democratic success story, demonstrating levels of party competition, turnout rates and patterns of civic engagement similar to those in mature Western democracies. What factors drive electoral choice in Taiwan's new democracy? This paper addresses this question by testing rival models of voting behavior using the Taiwan Elections and Democratization Study (TEDS) 2008 presidential election survey data and the 2010 mayoral election survey data. Analyses show that, similar to their counterparts in mature democracies, Taiwanese voters place more emphasis on the performance of political parties and their leaders in delivering policies designed to address valence issues concerning broadly shared policy goals than on position issues or more general ideological stances that divide the electorate. Findings demonstrating the strength of the valence politics model of electoral choice in Taiwan closely resemble the results of analyses of competing models of voting behavior in Western countries such as Great Britain and the United States.