Violent Sex Offenses: How are They Best Measured from Official Records?

In the United States, sexually violent predator (SVP) commitment statutes generally require assessment of an offender's risk of subsequent sexual violence. Current actuarial methods for predicting sexual reoffending were actually designed to predict something else—charges or convictions for offenses deemed sexual based on information obtained from police “rapsheets” alone. This study examined the referral and past offenses of 177 sex offenders. Results showed that police rapsheets (and data based on them) underestimated the number and severity of sexually motivated violent offenses for which sex offenders were actually apprehended. Rapsheet violent offenses seemed a more accurate index of the conduct addressed by SVP legislation than were rapsheet sex offenses. We suggest that, when evaluating sex offenders for SVP status, actuarial instruments designed to predict violent recidivism (as measured by rapsheet violent reoffenses) might be preferable to those designed to predict sexual recidivism (as measured by rapsheet sexual reoffenses).

Intimate Partner Violence Victims’ Accuracy in Assessing their Risk of Re-abuse

Using four categories of accuracy (true positive, false positive, true negative, false negative), this study explored (1) how accurately intimate partner violence (IPV) victims are able to assess their risk of re-abuse; and (2) potential predictors of accuracy. Women seeking help for IPV (N = 246) rated the likelihood that they would experience physical re-abuse in the coming year and then reported 18 months later whether those risks had been realized. Victim assessments were more likely to be right than wrong, and were subject to neither a pessimistic nor optimistic bias. In the multivariate analysis, significant/marginally significant predictors of the accuracy categories were the history of violence from this and former partners, level of substance use, PTSD symptoms, and the recency of the violence. Among the more robust findings were the connection between level of stalking and true positives, and between substance use and false negatives. This study suggests that victim assessments have significant potential to inform practice, and deserve further exploration.

城市近郊被征地农民的福利变化及个体差异——以江夏区五里界镇为实证

以武汉市江夏区五里界镇为实例,通过实地调研获取第一手数据资料,应用福利经济学理论和对应分析模型研究被征地农民的福利变化和个体差异。研究表明:经济福利变化方面,失地农民农业收入普遍减少,非农业收入大幅增加,贫富差距进一步扩大,且农民生活成本上升,家庭支出增加。虽然农民愿意对剩余的土地投入更多的资金,但是投入资金仍处于较低的水平。非经济福利方面,社会福利和生活福利均有不同程度改善,环境福利中景观破坏程度感受和土壤板结得到改善,但田块面积变化和破碎程度却有所恶化。个体差异研究方面,非农业收入已经成为失地农民的主要经济来源,农民较低的教育水平限制了经济福利的增长,且老人经济福利的状况令人担忧。     

风险社会下我国环境刑法的现代转型

当前中国正处于风险社会的关口,环境犯罪问题尤为突出。在风险社会下,我国环境犯罪的刑法立法仍然没有摆脱人类中心主义的束缚,环境犯罪刑法立法存在着诸多的瑕疵。为应对风险社会带来的新挑战,我国环境犯罪刑法立法实现由结果本位向规范本位的适度转向,由此,刑法应当适度调适犯罪圈的大小、建构双向的责任推定原则以及改革和创新刑罚制度,以充分实现环境刑法与风险社会的衔接。     

公安机关社会控制的方法与应用——以POWER SWOT分析法为例

公安机关承担着社会控制的重要职责。在社会问题频发、恶劣事件层出不穷的今天,POWER SWOT分析矩阵弥补了传统分析法的不足,新加入的POWER矩阵完善了原有的分析过程,使得公安机关在对自身机能有正确了解和评价之后,能正确快捷的制定战略,为履行社会控制职能提供了可靠的方法保障。     

Corporate social responsibility as new challenge for the IT industry

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) has become a relevant topic for enterprises offering products and services on a global scale. International organizations provide for guidelines and private associations publish codes of conduct requiring businesses to integrate social, environmental and ethical aspects, human rights as well as consumer concerns into their operations. Not at least the EU is promoting CSR through an Agenda for Action 2011–14. The implementation of CSR is a multidimensional ethical process and gains particular importance for the IT industry which by its nature is global. Therefore, IT enterprises are invited to conduct a CSR assessment, to develop a CSR strategy and to implement CSR commitments. These tasks are to be done by introducing specific CSR processes and compliance measures for risk assessment and risk mitigation.     

Trust in the clouds

The “cloud” is not new, and its roots go back to the original plans for computing from the 1950s. Now that computing is moving back to the original cloud-based models that were envisioned more than 60 years ago, with it, consumers are realizing the increases in security and safety that accompany the move to centralized servers. Yet the perception of “trust” in this context is often still formed by views that people have from their use of computers over the past two decades, which is localized in nature (“if I can see it, I can control it”). This view is based on perception more than fact. Our paper discusses different views of trust in other contexts (such as banking and travel) and concludes that users of cloud computing should recast their view of trust in a similar way that consumers of banking and travel have changed their perceptions of trust in the last 100 years.     

我国行政复议证据制度的突出问题与完善路径

我国行政复议证据制度存在的问题主要是举证责任规定不够全面、证据开示和质证有所缺失、证据认定规则缺失、证明标准可操作性不强且严苛。修改的方向和原则应当是准司法化、兼顾效率与公正、内容体系化。具体来说,应当在总则中规定总体要求,完善举证责任制度,增加证据交换、保全、排除、自认、补强制度,限制复议机关所调取证据的效力,根据行政复议的目的和使命合理设定证明标准,对证据和程序两部分的内容分类归并,等等。     

宁波市地方卫生立法的现状研究

宁波市是国务院批准的具有地方立法权的较大的市。近年来为了促进地方卫生事业的发展,保障人民健康权益,宁波市不断推进地方卫生立法工作,取得了较为突出的成效。本文通过对宁波地方卫生立法的类型进行分析,归纳了宁波市地方卫生立法的特点,宁波市地方卫生立法体现了＂以人为本,立法为民＂,体现了前瞻性和创新性,体现了区域特殊性和相对独立性,并且在实施过程中取得了明显的成效。     

Intellectual iconoclasm as modernizing foreign policy: the cases of Mahathir bin Mohamad and Lee Kuan Yew

This article attempts to engage in a preliminary twinned study of the foreign policy styles of Mahathir bin Mohamad and Lee Kuan Yew within the framework of ‘modernizing Southeast Asian foreign policies’. Modernization is a process of immense multidimensional displacement in economy, society, political system, attitudes towards politicians, identities, work, and consumption. As such the onus falls upon their leaders to either mitigate change or productively awaken their followers to embrace a new mode of thought. Both Lee and Mahathir have however chosen to engage in the foreign policy of intellectual iconoclasm featuring the narrative of ‘productive shock’, manufactured nationalist logics, elitist policy-making and elaborate self-propaganda.