物流金融中商业银行的风险及防范

物流金融业务作为一种较新的金融及物流创新服务产品,不仅解决了部分中小企业融资难问题,而且给商业银行带来了新的赢利增长点,为银行业的金融创新提供了条件。但是这种新兴的业务也会使商业银行面临质押物的风险、信托责任缺失风险、风险指标失灵风险、信用环境软约束风险和物流企业的管理体制风险。分析这些风险,并提出相应的规避和防范措施。     

企业诚信与和谐社会

自从2005年苏丹红事件席卷全国,2006年9月,上海发生瘦肉精中毒事件,食品安全逐渐成为人们讨论的一个热门话题。2008年的三鹿奶粉事件的发生,再次引起人们的思考,并成为今年两会所关注的热点问题。是什么导致食品安全事件接连发生,探究其中的原因,无外乎是企业监管制度的缺失,以及法规政策的缺位等等,文章从企业诚信这个角度导入寻求答案,从而分析企业诚信对建设和谐社会的意义。     

Analyzing the Performance of Risk Assessment Instruments: A Response to Vrieze and Grove (2007)

In a recent article, Vrieze and Grove (Law Hum Behav, doi: 10.1007/s10979-007-9092-x , 2007) argue that, because of low recidivism base rates and limited predictive accuracy, an actuarial risk assessment instrument (ARAI) may produce decisions about sex offenders that are worse than simply predicting that no one will commit another sex offense. This article examines: (1) the construction and potential overfitting of ARAIs; (2) the meaning, value, and limitations of ROC areas; and (3) the relationship between the operating point that maximizes an ARAI's correct classifications and the legal criterion-"likely to reoffend"-used for sex offender designations. Contrary to what Vrieze and Grove suggest, ARAIs of modest accuracy yield probabilistic information that is more relevant to legal decision-making than just "betting the base rate."     

Criminal Recidivism Among Juvenile Offenders: Testing the Incremental and Predictive Validity of Three Measures of Psychopathic Features

We studied the predictive, comparative, and incremental validity of three measures of psychopathic features (Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version [PCL:YV]; Antisocial Process Screening Device [APSD]; Childhood Psychopathy Scale [CPS]) vis-à-vis criminal recidivism among 83 delinquent youth within a truly prospective design. Bivariate and multivariate analyses (Cox proportional hazard analyses) showed that of the three measures, the CPS was most consistently related to most types of recidivism in comparison to the other measures. However, incremental validity analyses demonstrated that all of the predictive effects for the measures of psychopathic features disappeared after conceptually relevant covariates (i.e., substance use, conduct disorder, young age, past property crime) were included in multivariate predictive models. Implications for the limits of these measures in applied juvenile justice assessment are discussed.     

An Indepth Actuarial Assessment for Wife Assault Recidivism: The <Emphasis Type="Italic">Domestic Violence Risk Appraisal Guide</Emphasis>

An actuarial tool, the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA), predicts recidivism using only variables readily obtained by frontline police officers. Correctional settings permit more comprehensive assessments. In a subset of ODARA construction and cross-validation cases, 303 men with a police record for wife assault and a correctional system file, the VRAG, SARA, Danger Assessment, and DVSI also predicted recidivism, but the Hare Psychopathy Checklist (PCL-R) best improved prediction of recidivism, occurrence, frequency, severity, injury, and charges. In 346 new cases, ODARA and PCL-R independently predicted recidivism. An algorithm was derived for a combined instrument, the Domestic Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (DVRAG), and an experience table is presented (N=649). Results indicated the importance of antisociality in wife assault.     

Charities and Political Campaigning: The Impact of Risk-Based Regulation

This article examines the effects of the Charity Commission’s implementation of risk-based regulation on the political campaigning activities of charities. In doing so, it draws on the findings of a recent empirical study which explored charity representatives’ awareness of relevant law and regulation and their perceptions of the obstacles they faced in their campaigning work. The article begins with a brief exploration of the emergence of risk-based approaches to regulation, followed by consideration of the legal and regulatory requirements for risk management by charities. Moving to its main focus of political campaigning, the article notes the unique legal issues faced by charities in campaigning work. It provides a comparative evaluation of the 2004 and 2008 versions of Charity Commission guidance CC9 on campaigning and political activity by charities (CC9) in terms of their approach to legal compliance, their formulation of the specific risks of campaigning and their approach to the process of risk management itself. In addition, the article considers the relevance to campaigning activity of the Commission’s current plans for an ‘enhanced approach’ to risk in its compliance work. The article concludes by considering the potential impacts on charitable campaigning of both the Commission’s overall approach to campaigning and its perceived risks, and of further entrenchment of risk principles in charity regulation.

社区老年高血压病患者的中医体质类型及相关危险因素分析

目的 探讨社区老年高血压病患者中医体质类型分布和相关危险因素,为高血压病的防治提供参考。方法 根据《中国高血压防治指南（2010）》,将5 582例社区老年志愿者分为高血压病组及非高血压病组。采用中医体质调查问卷,对其进行中医体质及危险因素分析。结果 5 582例老年人中,高血压病患者占55.2%,非高血压病者占44.8%;高血压病组平和质562例（18.2%）,偏颇体质2 521例（81.8%）,非高血压病组平和质467例（18.7%）,其余共2 032例（81.3%）。进一步分析发现,高血压病组偏颇体质主要是痰湿质,非高血压病组偏颇体质主要是气虚质,两组之间体质分布差异具有统计学意义（P＜0.05）。Logistics回归分析结果显示：在高血压病与中医体质类型关系的模型中,痰湿质为独立危险因素;在高血压病与中医体质类型及相关因素关系的模型中,谷氨酸氨基转移酶（alanine transaminase, ALT）、痰湿质、同型半胱氨酸（homocysteine,Hcy）、血脂异常、年龄及血糖为危险因素。结论 本社区老年高血压病患者体质分布以偏颇体质多见,痰湿质、气虚质、阳虚质是较为常见的体质类型;ALT、痰湿质、Hcy、血脂异常、年龄及血糖是高血压病的危险因素。在社区慢性病管理中,根据不同中医体质类型制定相应的防治干预方案,积极调整偏颇体质,倡导健康的生活方式,加强对高血压病高危人群的干预,对社区老年高血压病的防治具有指导意义。     

特大城市社会风险恢复机制之法制优化研究——以行政法为视角

特大城市社会风险恢复机制应包括善后恢复机制、调查评估机制、救助补偿机制、规划重建机制等多方面内容,然而当前我国特大城市在社会风险恢复环节并没有完全契合法治发展要求,在其运行机制中存在诸多合法性危机。通过梳理、总结和借鉴美国、日本的特大城市社会风险恢复机制的建构及其法治化之成功经验,可从行政法视角提出健全和优化我国特大城市社会风险恢复机制相关法律制度应当遵循的基本原则、总体思路和具体方案设计。     

Anatomy of creeping authoritarianism in Bangladesh: a historical analysis of some events that shaped the present state of Bangladesh’s culture and politics

ABSTRACT

This paper offers a critical analysis of creeping authoritarianism in Bangladesh’s culture and politics. Political events since the 1940s that have shaped the presently unstable state of Bangladesh’s society are interpreted specifically in terms of their cultural and political significance. One important aspect of this unstable political state is the ongoing search for Bangladeshi national identity. Accordingly, the paper seeks to answer the questions of why and how the present sociocultural and political divisions in Bangladesh have emerged from the fundamental debate over whether (1) Bengali ethnicity, language, culture, and secularism, (2) Muslim nationalism or (3) a combination of both should become the marker of Bangladesh’s national identity to secure social and political stability. Furthermore, recent social, religious and political developments across the Muslim world suggest that attempts to introduce ultra-secularism in some Muslim-majority countries since the 1950s have led to authoritarianism, a movement which has ultimately ended or will soon end through popular Islamic upsurges. Bangladesh seems to be moving toward such social and political change, as the people have become restless in their desire to remove creeping authoritarian, the mark of a repressive regime that has emerged since the early 1970s. The key lesson that can be drawn from the extant literature on this issue in the context of Bangladesh is that the extreme form of secularism or ultra-secularism, which the present ruling Awami League and its left-communist allies continue to advance and impose from above, is neither desirable nor acceptable to Bangladeshi Muslims whilst there is clear movement away from ultra-secularism by other Muslim-majority countries. This paper draws the conclusion that since neither assertive secularism nor theocratic Islamism can flourish in Bangladesh, a competitive democratic political order that accommodates aspects of both secularism and Islamic ethical-moral codes could be a feasible model for the achievement of social, cultural and political stability that is so fundamental to the promotion of steady economic growth and social justice.     

审计风险的成因

随着我国市场经济的发展,审计作为重要的经济监督部门发挥着越来越重要的作用,但随之而来的就是审计风险也越来越大。如何防范和控制审计风险成了审计的一项重要工作。