RISE OF THE DISLOYAL: INCREASING RESENTMENT IN NORTH KOREA

Why has loyalty to the Kim Family Regime and the Worker’s Party diminished over the past twenty years despite a rise in the average standard of living, greater social mobility, and a regime policy of benign neglect towards marketization? Unthinkable in the Kim Il Sung era, the increase in expressions of resentment toward the North Korean authorities represents a shift in the ideology, behavior, and motivation of the population. Four critical factors have heightened tensions between state and society in North Korea, leading to a reduction in loyalty among the general population. The author considers the impact of labor mobilizations, the declining importance of party membership, the influence of foreign media, and the rise of rent seeking and extractive policies. While all play a role, it is important and possible to identify the primary cause. Extractive policies and rent-seeking position the regime and the people in a directly adversarial relationship. All tiers and agencies of the government have become complicit in efforts to siphon off profits, control market actors through crony capitalism, rent seek, over-regulate, and compete against private market actors, causing the residents to express frustration and resentment towards a government that does not have their interests at heart.     

策略人和策略决策模型:草原管理的智能体模拟分析

传统决策理论忽视了对人的策略性行为和策略决策的考察。本文通过对草原管理的智能体模拟分析,发展了策略人和策略决策新模型,并重点研究了策略人的四种典型策略决策:策略性投票、掩盖性、交易性和学习性策略决策。智能体模拟分析发现,在特定条件下,策略人的策略决策深刻影响个体的具体行动,并进而影响个体的行动结果(例,草原的可持续发展)。进而探讨了通过政策或制度安排来利用策略人的策略决策谋取预期政策或制度收益的可能性和其现实响应,并与策略人的四种典型策略决策相对应,依次讨论了策略约束性、保护性、诱导性以及学习性四种政策或制度安排。     

How foreign policy recommendations are put together: A computational model with empirical applications

This paper presents and applies empirically a computational model of the way in which bona fide high level foreign policy recommendations by U.S. policy makers are assembled. We begin by pointing out that policy making can be seen as the connection of certain strings of words to other strings. We then discuss how these connections constitute certain types of foreign policy making phenomena as such. To theorize about such connections, one first needs to specify essential features of these phenomena, and we do so for one phenomenon: bona fide recommendations. We next turn to a discussion of the theory that links together the categories by which these features are represented. That theory explains how certain strings of words are assembled into new proximate goals, missions, and tools. The theory can be modeled computationally using the programming language Scheme, and we next present that model. We conclude by presenting a run of the model, showing the close fit between actual and generated strings.     

“孟不印尼”合作倡议及其发展趋势

"孟不印尼"(BBIN)合作倡议是由印度发起的一个南亚东北部次区域合作倡议。目的是绕开长期被印巴矛盾拖累的南盟,通过在印度东部、孟加拉国、尼泊尔和不丹之间建立一个涉及公路、铁路、内河运输、航空和电力网络的次区域联通体系,推动南亚东部次区域一体化进程。目前,"孟不印尼"倡议的里程碑"机动车协议"已经达成但尚未完全生效。铁路联通协议开始讨论并已有前期收获,其他领域尚未进入正式谈判阶段。"孟不印尼"合作倡议体现了相关国家和地区对互联互通的渴望与要求,符合该地区的长远利益。印度试图借此解决其东北部的交通瓶颈问题,巩固其南亚交通枢纽的地位,并试图在更大地理范围内扩大印度的地缘优势。但是,这一倡议受到印度国家能力的限制以及与其他成员国之间复杂关系的影响。一方面,印度东部地区经济发展水平低下,不足以成为吸引周边国家的经济发动机。另一方面,BBIN国家经济发展水平相近,经济结构高度相似,经济互补性有限。成员国从BBIN倡议中获得的潜在收益,可能会不如预期,将挫伤相关国家的积极性。再加上资金保障不力、管理机制对接困难,BBIN的推进将会比较困难。     

The Taliban: a new proxy for Iran in Afghanistan?

Abstract

Iran has pursued a highly contradictory policy towards Afghanistan. On the one hand, it became a significant beneficiary of the overthrow of the Taliban regime by the US-led military intervention in 2001 in Afghanistan. The new Afghan government established cordial ties with Iran, allowing it to expand its political, economic and cultural influence in the country. Yet Iran has also provided significant support to the Taliban in its campaign to violently upend the political, social and economic processes in the country. This article examines the underlying domestic and regional security dynamics that contribute to this contradictory behaviour. It offers an assessment of how tensions between the United States and the Islamic Republic, as well as Tehran’s growing threat perception following the rise of the Islamic State – Khorasan in 2014, impact on Iran’s policy towards the Taliban. The paper argues that Tehran views the Taliban as an instrument to disrupt the influence of other actors in Afghanistan. The instrumentalisation of the Taliban, however, is likely to be counterproductive for Iranian security in the long run as it contributes to Afghanistan’s instability and insecurity and undermines Iran’s own long-term interests.     

Migrant Workers or Working Women? Comparing Labour Supply Policies in Post-War Europe

ABSTRACT

Why did some European countries choose migrant labour to expand their labour force in the decades that followed World War II, while others opted for measures to expand female employment via welfare expansion? The paper argues that gender norms and the political strength of the left were important structuring factors in these choices. Female employment required a substantial expansion of state intervention (e.g. childcare; paid maternity leave). Meanwhile, migrant recruitment required minimal public investments, at least in the short term, and preserved traditional gender roles. Using the contrasting cases of Sweden and Switzerland, the article argues that the combination of a weak left (labour unions and social democratic parties) and conservative gender norms fostered the massive expansion of foreign labour and a late development of female labour force participation in Switzerland. In contrast, more progressive gender norms and a strong labour movement put an early end to guest worker programmes in Sweden, and paved the way for policies to promote female labour force participation.     

Social Policy by Other Means: Theorizing Unconventional Forms of Welfare Production

Abstract

The goal of this special issue is to highlight the importance of unconventional social policies, theorize their development in comparison with traditional welfare state accounts and outline a new research agenda. In this introduction to the special issue, the editors present the concept of social policy by other means as encompassing two kinds of unconventional social policy (from the point of view of mainstream comparative research): First, functional equivalents to formal systems of social protection and, second, non-state provision of benefits. The concept builds upon a sizeable, but fragmented literature in comparative welfare state research. While numerous examples demonstrate that social policy by other means is more pervasive in both OECD and non-OECD countries than often acknowledged, a brief survey of the top 20 articles in the field reveals that this fact is not sufficiently reflected in the academic literature. With reference to both existing studies and the contributions to this special issue, the editors go on to explore (1) the different forms of social policy by other means, (2) explanatory theories and (3) their effectiveness in terms of social outcomes. They close by outlining a research agenda.     

The Monitoring Capacity of Civil Society Networks: A Social Network Analysis in the Case of Gender Equality Policy

The role of civil society organizations (CSOs) as a watchdog in the implementation process is widely acknowledged. However, little is known about what determines their capacity to monitor EU policy implementation and how it differs across member states. This article accounts for social capital as well as human and financial capital to determine the monitoring capacity of CSOs. To capture sources of social capital, a network analysis is applied in a comparative case article on the monitoring networks of national platforms of the European Women’s Lobby across eight EU member states. The analysis reveals that CSOs in western member states are rich in human, financial and social capital, while CSOs in CEE member states compensate for this lack of resources by linking up with the Commission.     

POLICIES OF LAST RESORT FOR DEALING WITH NORTH KOREA’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAMME

This paper analyzes the policy remedies for dealing with North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile programs. After six nuclear tests and three recent successful ICBM tests, North Korea is close to miniaturizing nuclear warheads and establishing a reliable delivery system, thus achieving a much-feared nuclear weapons capability. In defiance of the extraordinarily tough U.N. Security Council resolutions, Pyongyang persists in developing nuclear weapons. North Korea's nuclear weapons program already has exceeded the strategic patience, of the U.S.-ROK alliance. Harsher policy options to deal with the DPRK nuclear weapons are imperative. Several drastic options, including severe sanctions, preventive bombing, nuclear armament of South Korea, are evaluated in the final round of engagement policy on guaranteeing nonaggression and a peace agreement with Pyongyang.     

Of Distributive Politics and Pork Barrel System: Why Not Epistemic Governance Approach?

The paper attempts to situate distributive politics in the context of epistemic governance. The paper also seeks to analyze the various structures and systems, actors, agents and stakeholders, and norms and behaviors involved within the realm of theory and praxis in distributive politics. It borrows from the epistemic work targets espoused by Alasuutari and Qadir (2014), namely the environment, actors and virtues. Finally, the paper proposes an epistemic governance as policy approach in distributive politics as it tries to argue the shift of power from the hands of the political elites to the hands of the politically astute epistemes.