No News Is Good News: Mark and Recapture for Event Data When Reporting Probabilities Are Less Than One

We discuss a common, but often ignored, problem in event data: underreporting bias. When collecting data, it is often not the case that source materials capture all events of interest, leading to an undercount of the true number of events. To address this issue, we propose a common method first used to estimate the size of animal populations when a complete census is not feasible: mark and recapture. By taking multiple sources into consideration, one can estimate the rate of missing data across sources and come up with an estimate of the true number of events. To demonstrate the utility of the approach, we compare Associated Press and Agence France Press reports on conflict events, as contained in the Social Conflict in Africa Database. We show that these sources capture approximately 76% of all events in Africa but that the nondetection rate declines dramatically when considering more significant events. We also show through regression analysis that deadly events, events of a larger magnitude, and events with government repression, among others, are significant predictors of overlapping reporting. Ultimately, the approach can be used to correct for undercounting in event data and to assess the quality of sources used.     

大数据时代高校网络舆情应对策略的重新定位

大数据时代,网络舆情应对能力成为衡量高校管理水平的重要评价指标,但是高校网络舆情应对策略的研究对于事前应对分析仍然存在不足。高校网络舆情应对策略的重新定位,不仅需要转变思想观念如重视批评与自我批评、正确看待应急预案、正确看待网络舆情、相信并且重视科学;而且需要加强能力建设如重视顶层设计、具备大局观念、利用大数据挖掘技术、加强沟通与合作、挖掘本质根源。     

计算机系统遭到犯罪入侵后的电子证据取证

电子证据没有传统证据所拥有的永恒性,电子犯罪的调查和起诉,调查人员必须根据在某种交易已经完成后的记录来立案。一旦探测到受到入侵,你有两种选择方案来对付—将系统和网络断开,开始取证,或者仍旧让系统联网,尝试监控入侵者。利用正确的工具,具备所有器件如何工作的知识,就是收集所需证据需要的一切。     

网络时代我国隐私权立法的思考

本文结合欧美一些国家相关立法的对比研究,立足我国隐私权立法的现状,从制定个人数据保护法方面对我国隐私权立法提出一些初步设想。同时,还就电脑网络环境中个人数据的技术保护与法律保护的协调问题进行了探讨和研究。     

Missing Data Problems in Criminological Research: Two Case Studies

This paper considers the problem of missing data in two circumstances commonly confronted by criminologists. In the first circumstance, there is missing data due to subject attrition—some cases drop out of a study. In this context, analysts are frequently interested in examining the association between an independent variable measured at time t(x _t ) and an outcome variable that is measured at time t + 1(y _t + 1); the problem is that the outcome variable is only observed for those cases which do not drop out of the study. In the second circumstance there is missing data on an independent variable of interest for typical reasons (i.e., the respondent did not wish to answer a question or could not be located). In this case, researchers are interested in estimating the association between the independent variable with missing data and an outcome variable that is fully observed. Criminologists often handle these two missing data problems by conducting analyses on the subsample of observations with complete data. In this paper, we explore this problem with two case studies and we then illustrate the use of methods that directly address the uncertainty produced by missing data.     

我国应当尽快确立电子商务证据的法律地位

随着电子商务的普及推广,电子商务证据与现行法律规定发生冲突,已在司法实践中显现出来。在我国,这种冲突主要体现在电子商务证据的种类、形式等方面,借鉴世界各国和国际社会的不同做法,我国应对其合法地位作出相应的法律规定,以适应电子商务发展的需要。     

The decomposition and graphical analysis of crime and sanctions data: A cross-national application

This article attempts to illustrate the utility of isoquant map analysis from the field of production theory in microeconomics for the analysis of criminal justice data. Cross-national comparisons of aggregate crime and justice data are used to demonstrate the ability of this technique to reveal important patterns that are often obscured by simple rate comparisons and multivariate treatments such as pooled time-series analysis. For each jurisdiction, aggregate trends in criminal justice processing rates are systematically analyzed as a sequence of two-input production processes: gross imprisonment rates (prison population divided by resident population) can be partitioned in terms of the crime rate and punitiveness (prison population divided by the number of offenses); punitiveness can, in turn, be partitioned in terms of severity and certainty of punishment; certainty of punishment can then be partitioned, seriatim, in terms of the incarceration rate, the conviction rate, and the arrest or clearance rate and the rate at which citizens report crimes. Cross-national data collected by Farrington, Langan, and Wikström are used to illustrate the utility of the method for displaying comparisons of the decomposition of aggregate criminal justice data for the United States, England, and Sweden.     

The changing of the guard: Top management characteristics, organizational strain, and antitrust offending

From within an organizational strain perspective, this paper examines the effects of managerial succession, CEO background, decentralized management, and product dominant strategies on the reported corporate antitrust offending levels of 43 basic manufacturing companies over a 22-year period. In the aggregate, findings suggest that past illegal involvement predicts future offending; companies headed by finance and administrative CEOs have higher offending levels than do firms headed by CEOs from other backgrounds; a turnover in top management generally decreases offending levels; the pursuit of product dominant strategies increases the number of anticompetitive acts; and offending levels are unrelated to whether new leaders are recruited from within or outside the firm, whether the CEO is also Chair of the Board of Directors, or whether management is centralized or decentralized. The effects of some variables on corporate offending interact with firm performance.     

DNA技术在系列案件串并中的应用

系列案件、流窜案件时空跨度大,严重影响社会稳定。对其进行及时的串并侦查是一项有效的侦查措施。DNA技术和DNA数据库目前已越来越多地应用于凶杀、强奸、盗窃、抢劫等许多系列案件的串并和认定,为最大限度打击犯罪,合理配置有限的侦查资源提供了强有力的科技支撑。