“For They Knew What They Did” – What Swiss Voters Did (Not) Know About The Mass Immigration Initiative

After the vote of 9 February 2014, many attributed the surprising result to voter ignorance. The basic claim was that the majority of those voting in favour of the initiative possessed only a weak understanding of what the likely outcome(s) would be if their choice prevailed. However, the analysis of the voters' knowledge level shows that they were comparably well aware of what the proposal at hand was about. Moreover, most voters voted their true preferences. They were also well aware about the possible economic ramifications acceptance could have for the relationship between Switzerland and the European Union and they were willing to take the risk. However, what should give the initiative's opponents a glimmer of hope is the fact that a majority believed that the principle of free movement would somehow be negotiable. Given the ongoing refusal of the EU to renegotiate that principle, these voters might have become less confident about its negotiability than they were before the vote.     

FRIENDS WITH MY FUTURE SELF: LONGITUDINAL VIVIDNESS INTERVENTION REDUCES DELINQUENCY

In a field experiment, we use a novel method to test whether instilling a greater sense of vividness of the future self motivates people to act in a more future‐oriented way and reduces their delinquent involvement. We manipulate vividness of the future self by having participants, a sample of high‐school youth (N = 133), “befriend” an avatar representing their future self on a social network website. For 7 days, they reply to short messages from their future self designed to trigger thinking about that distant self. Using repeated‐measures analysis of variance (ANOVA), we find that participants who had been linked to their future self report less delinquent involvement, whereas controls did not. Furthermore, the results of a nonparametric bootstrapping procedure show that this effect is mediated by changes in vividness of the future self, such that increases in vividness lead to lower self‐reported delinquency. We conclude that vividness of the future self holds promise not only as a cognitive explanation for the failure to make informed cost–benefit trade‐offs but also for interventions aiming to reduce delinquency.     

Pro- and anti-system behavior: a complementary approach to voice and silence in studies of political behavior

Theories of participation and non-participation are largely unable to capture and distinguish anti-system behavior, which ranges from deliberate silence to political violence. To better understand and measure these diverse forms of citizen participation, and to distinguish these from forms of alienation and marginalization, this article builds a new model of anti-system behavior in a way that facilitates the development of empirically observable variables and hypotheses. To do so, I draw upon sociological approaches to alienation – which examine intensities of rebellion and contestation – and combine them with the standard political scientific approach – which examines intensities of engagement based on resources. The problem, I argue, is that each approach only partially explains the motivations behind aberrant political behavior in modern democratic systems; they are in fact two sides of the same coin. I consider three cases of apparent silent citizenship: Muslims in Western Europe, Roma in Eastern Europe, and white working-class people in North America and Europe.     

“以谣辟谣”：政府回应中的特殊现象及其解读

“以谣辟谣”现象是一种特殊的政府回应行为,多发生于公共政策事件、官员违法违纪事件、突发性公共事件中。以发生领域为标准,可以将“以谣辟谣”现象划分为政策型、庇护型、突发型三类。“以谣辟谣”具有网络时代特性,目标指向明确且具有前后事实对比,其产生逻辑是在特定制度环境和行政文化背景下,为摆脱回应方面的行动困境所做出的行为选择。为避免此种行为发生,需要完善政府回应的制度约束,建立常态化的回应机制,拓宽政务公开渠道,强化民间信息平台的管理,实现权威信息的全民共享。     

Sequential vote choice: Applying a consideration set model of heterogeneous decision processes

This article analyzes the relative effects of a classic set of long-term and short-term determinants of party choice by treating voters' decision processes as a two-stage heterogeneous process. Departing from a consideration set model of voting behavior (CSM), we use panel data collected in Sweden in 2014 to analyze which voters considered voting for more than one party. To evaluate the CSM approach we estimate the relative effects of long-term and short-term determinants, for different parts of the electorate and at different stages of the decision process.Results confirm that the choice process for the ‘considering kind’ of voters is influenced by another mix of long-term and short-determinants than stable and party identified voters. Findings suggest that continued analyses of multi-stage decision making may bring new insights into electoral behavior. We argue that the core ideas of CSM – the sequential decision-making process and heterogeneity in the impact of long-term and short-term determinants – are generally applicable for analyses of voting behavior.     

Honesty in Environmental Compliance Games

This note investigates the consequences of honesty in a compliance game involving polluting firms and an environmental agency. Two enforcement schemes with or without self-reporting of behavior are considered. First, we show that non intervention may become optimal when the proportion of honest polluters is large enough but still inferior to one. Secondly, the increase in the number of honest polluters has striking ambiguous effects on pollution and social welfare. Indeed, we give examples in which an increase in the proportion of honest polluters leads to an increase in the number of non compliant polluters or a decrease in social welfare.     

认知—行为治疗理论的新进展

目前,对于认知－行为治疗的认识、术语使用以及实际操作上都还很混乱。本在对这一理论派别进行简要回顾的基础上,借助对各种与环境相关的障碍和一般化障碍的讨论,以及对调整意识信念和潜意识记忆内容的讨论,简要地阐述了认知－行为治疗理论的新进展。本认为,指向意识可触及信念的治疗是与有关情绪和动机的认知理论相关的;而指向潜意识表达的治疗则与学习理论和认知心理学中的有着实验研究相联系。     

创投引入后的主体行为对企业成长的影响机制

宏观上,创业投资产业的繁荣和创业企业的蓬勃发展成为相互促进的力量。微观上,创投的引入是一把双刃剑,创投的资金支持和增值服务是促进企业成长的重要力量,但其逐利动机和潜在的道德风险也可能损害企业的成长性。基于行为的视角,文章分析了创投引入后,企业家和投资者的6类行为对企业成长的影响,并分析了企业家行为的中介作用。研究显示:企业家和投资者行为对企业潜力绩效有显著影响,企业家的生产行为和投资者的监督行为对企业竞争绩效有显著影响,企业家行为在投资者行为对创业企业成长的影响过程中发挥了部分中介效应。研究结论对全面认识投融资双方在创业企业成长中的作用发挥有重要意义。     

言语行为理论视角下的警务言语分析

口头语言是开展警务活动的重要载体和媒介。依据言语行为理论来分析,警务言语本身就是一种履行法定职责的行为,而警察言语行为目的的达成,有赖于制定科学合理的警务言语规范,有赖于加强基层民警正确执法观念的教育以及言语表达能力的强化训练。     

巩义市“2010·2·16”案件犯罪嫌疑人刘某某行为心理分析——一起源于早恋心理创伤的强奸杀人案分析

巩义市2010.2.16案件是一起源于早恋心理创伤、以未成年少女为侵害对象的强奸杀人案。从分析现场行为结果到犯罪现场重建,还原了整个案发过程,为客观描述犯罪行为,认定犯罪事实提供了行为证据分析。从分析犯罪行为人心理因素,到阐明犯罪发生时的环境因素,深刻探究了犯罪行为发生的原因,为研究此类案件提供了借鉴。