第一代独生子女婚姻生育选择及对未来人口和家庭结构的影响——兼与庄渝霞商榷生育政策调整的可行性

随着第一代独生子女进入婚育年龄,产生大量的双独家庭、单独家庭,不同家庭类型的变化将引起政策生育率自然回升,如果考虑到有部分家庭放弃生育二孩,则意愿生育率会低于政策生育率。本文从独生子女婚育选择的角度出发,使用相关调查数据分析,发现由双独家庭所产生"4-2-1"家庭的数目受政策微调生育的影响较小,政策微调可以大幅度降低一孩家庭的比例,二孩家庭比例的增加无疑会降低家庭风险,且不会大规模地增加出生人口数量,因此,中国应当对生育政策进行微调,增强人口结构的合理性。     

十一届三中全会以来党的理论创新的轨迹、特点及动因分析

十一届三中全会以来,党的理论创新轨迹分为三个阶段。既继承前人又突破陈规、突出强调解放和发展生产力、维护最广大人民的根本利益、注重全面、协调、可持续发展是理论创新的四个显著特点。经济全球化、市场化及现代化则是中国共产党进行理论创新的三个重要推动力量。     

British Communists and the 1932 turn to the trade unions

Abstract

The Comintern’s Third Period, 1928–1934, based on Stalin’s ‘second revolution’ in Russia, capitalist crisis and the claim that social democracy and fascism were twins, generated sectarian, ultra-left politics which proved inimical to Communist activity in trade unions. This article sheds new light on that issue by exploring three connected episodes: the British party’s (CPGB) renewed turn to the unions, heralded in the January resolution of 1932; the roles the Comintern and CPGB leader Harry Pollitt played in this initiative; and the subsequent attempt by Pollitt to revise the politics of union work. This triptych reviews both primary sources and recent historiography. It argues that some accounts have overestimated the novelty of the January resolution, blurred its meaning and exaggerated Pollitt’s part in it. The resolution did not attempt to change the line but its application. Its impact was limited. Bids to go beyond it were muddled and unsuccessful. The 1933 move towards the united front, and subsequently the popular front, was of greater significance in creating an effective Communist presence in trade unions than the events of 1931–1932.     

The Body as Situation: A Darwinian Reading of The Second Sex

Challenging the influential view that the chapter on biology in the first volume of The Second Sex is exposing scientific myths in severe prose, in the view of this paper, the chapter is as much about scientific facts as it is an intriguingly open-ended dialogue between phenomenology and science. Beauvoir’s consuming epistemological and scientific preoccupation with the category of biology is analysed in a bid to advance a new, naturalist–feminist conception of Beauvoir’s theory of natural history. The analysis unravels the theoretical edifice, with its tensions between Beauvoir’s selective but brilliant appropriation of recent discoveries in evolutionary biology and genetics and certain deliberate rejections and omissions of Darwinian evolutionary thinking. Contrary to Beauvoir’s intentions, she ends up conflating the term biology with, in particular, reproductive physiology, and perpetuating the ill-fated division between body and psyche. In contributing to a reformulation of an empirically grounded approach to the embodied mind and situated body, this paper debates some promising insights from contemporary neuroscience and primatology. These insights are critical to theory development, based on a non-anthropocentric stance and non-dualistic understanding of the mind–brain continuum and the body as a situation.     

女性“第二轮班”现象真的存在吗 —— 基于女性教育、职业和收入特征的实证研究

本研究借助国家统计局和妇女联合会的调查数据,对比了中国不同性别城镇劳动者在有酬劳动 时间和家务劳动时间分配上的差异特征,并利用面板数据模型验证了影响女性群体时间选择偏好的主要因素。 结果表明,在中国女性城镇劳动力者中,显著存在着“第二轮班”现象,即不仅参与有酬劳动,而且负担了很 大比重的无酬家务劳动。同时,教育、职业和收入等因素对不同性别劳动者时间分配有一定程度的影响。     

Canadian Concerns of a Different Kind of Brexit: Britain’s First Application to the EEC and Canada’s Commonwealth Appeal

Recent debates on Brexit have made several attempts to connect the current situation with Britain’s first attempt to gain entry to the European Economic Community (EEC) in 1961. In both 2016 and 1961, questions were raised about what role the Commonwealth would take and how the relationship with Britain would adapt to their then-entry and current exit of a union with Europe. This article seeks to examine how Canada reacted to Britain’s decision to enter the EEC and sheds light on the vociferous opposition it raised within the Commonwealth. Using both British and Canadian cabinet minutes and Commonwealth memoranda, the article follows the Canadian campaign against British entry to the EEC and its fervent defence of the Commonwealth as an economic-focused community. Ultimately, the Canadian-led protest against British entry into the EEC derived from a fear that Britain would drift from the Commonwealth towards Europe, leading to the complete dissolution of the economic bonds that tie the community together.     

Can governments use Get Out The Vote letters to solve Europe’s turnout crisis? Evidence from a field experiment

Declining levels of turnout are a problem in European elections. Are Get Out The Vote campaigns the solution to the problem? While many studies have investigated such campaigns in the US, little is known about their effect in Europe. The article presents a field experiment in which encouragement to vote in an upcoming Danish election is delivered to more than 60,000 first-time voters using direct personal letters. Eight different letters are designed, based on the calculus of voting and prospect theory. The sample is randomly divided into treatment groups or the control group. Using validated turnout, small positive effects of receiving a letter on turnout are found, with little difference across letters. The letters mostly mobilised voters with a low propensity to vote and thus increased equality in participation. In sum, while letters have some effect, they are not likely to be a panacea for solving Europe’s turnout challenges.     

Demonisation and electoral support for populist radical right parties: A temporary effect

Since the 1980s, Western Europe has experienced the surge of populist radical right parties. In an attempt to ward off these electoral newcomers, established parties have pursued strategies of disengagement, such as exclusion and de-legitimisation. This study examines the electoral effects of an excessive form of de-legitimisation, which we label ‘demonisation’. We estimate the effects of demonisation on electoral support for the Dutch Freedom Party (PVV) and its predecessor Groep Wilders. Time series analyses show that demonisation has a negative effect on electoral support, but only for Groep Wilders. Once the populist radical right party has made a successful entry into the party system, demonisation does not have its intended consequences.     

The birth and development of the language of global development in light of trends in global population,international politics,economics and globalisation

The 1940s saw an intensification of worldwide interest in the problems of development and underdevelopment. One consequence of this was a rapid evolution of the language of global development. The reconstruction of its genesis is most commonly attempted through the analysis of literature on the subject and accounts by those who took part in or observed the debates of the time concerning the world’s development and structure. This article proposes a different approach which locates important events in the evolution of the modern language of global development on timelines tracing populational, political, socio-economic and civilisational processes.     

Explaining postwar wage compression

One of the main problems confronting labor unions during wage bargaining is how to deal with the conflicting demands of different groups of workers over the division of labor market earnings. This article explains how their internal organizational blueprint determines how they deal with this and criticizes the scholarly preoccupation with union density and wage bargaining centralization as explanatory variables for cross-national and temporal variation in wage inequality. It does so based on a critical analysis of collective bargaining in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom during the first four decades of the postwar period.