试析土耳其文官政治与军人政治的博弈——基于正义与发展党的执政实践

军人在土耳其历史文化中占据重要地位,曾经通过3次军事政变推翻民选政府,并通过还政文官政府使土耳其沿着凯末尔主义的方向前进。正义与发展党上台后,尽管文官政府和军方极力维持脆弱的平衡关系,但双方在权力争夺、加入欧盟、库尔德问题、复兴伊斯兰文化等方面分歧重重,争端不断。文官政治和军人政治博弈的结果说明了土耳其的军人政治逐渐让步于文官政治,军人干政在可预见的将来很难再发生;尽管世俗主义和伊斯兰主义之间的斗争仍很激烈,但已逐渐趋于理性;正义与发展党"保守的民主"模式获得民众的普遍认可,将为中东诸国提供一种民主发展的范式。     

Russia and the EU Ten Years On: A Relationship in Search of Definition

Russia and the EU have dramatically expanded their relationship over the last ten years ever since the 1997 Partnership Cooperation and Agreement entered into force. The four spaces of cooperation agreed upon in 2003 have provided a myriad of opportunities for dialogue and cooperation. Yet, quantity does not equal quality in a relationship that lacks a clear endgame perspective. Russia's new cockiness and the EU's internal divisions do not help bridge the strategic gap. Energy and the common neighbourhood are today the main spoilers in the relationship. They could however be turned into major opportunities in developing a strategic partnership.     

Monopolising the Centre: The AKP and the Uncertain Path of Turkish Democracy

The loss of reform momentum and rising authoritarianism during the most recent phase of AKP government indicate that Turkish democracy is in crisis. Although the Gezi protests emerged as a movement from below reacting to the rising authoritarianism of the AKP government, it did not turn into an organised and sustainable movement. Similarly, external anchors or reputational effects are failing to reverse the backsliding of Turkish democracy. The notion of ‘bounded communities’ is a key concept in accounting for the continued dominance of Erdo?an and the AKP in the face of significant pressure for change. Erdo?an’s victory in the August 2014 presidential elections generates both benign and pessimistic scenarios for the future of Turkish democracy.     

Can non-democracies support international democracy? Turkey as a case study

Abstract

In recent years, there has been a rise of interest in the concept of autocracy promotion, with scholars questioning whether the efforts by authoritarian governments to influence political transitions beyond their borders are necessarily pro-authoritarian. An extension of this question is whether some authoritarian governments may at times find it in their interest to support democracy abroad. This article aims to answer this question by focusing on the case of Turkey. It argues that, despite its rapidly deteriorating democracy since the late 2000s, Turkey has undertaken democracy support policies with the explicit goal of democratic transition in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during the Arab Spring and, while not bearing the intention of democratic transition, has employed democracy support instruments in the form of state-building in sub-Saharan Africa since 2005 to the present day. Based on original fieldwork, the article finds that non-democracies can turn out as democracy supporters, if and when opportunities for strategic gains from democratisation abroad arise. The article further suggests that even in those cases where strategic interests do not necessitate regime change, a non-democracy may still deploy democracy support instruments to pursue its narrow interests, without adhering to an agenda for democratic transition.     

Victims Speak: Comparing Child Sexual Abusers' and Child Victims' Accounts, Perceptions, and Interpretations of Sexual Abuse

This article presents findings from a longitudinal study¹ that sought to evaluate a treatment program for child sexual abusers. A triangulated methodological approach was adopted drawing upon quantitative and qualitative methodological techniques. The focus here is upon one element of this research.² Ninety-one in-depth interviews were conducted over a four-year period with a small, nonrandom sample of twenty-one male offenders who had been convicted of sexual offenses against children. All of the men were subject to probation orders with a psychiatric condition (Criminal Justice Act, 1991). One of the aims of this element of the research was to explore the extent to which evidence of denial could be found in offenders' accounts of offense circumstance and also to explore the extent to which offenders minimized the nature and extent of abuse perpetrated. Offenders' accounts of offense circumstances were compared to victim statements, and stark differences emerge. These findings have considerable implications for treatment practice with sex offenders, where victims' perceptions could be used to directly confront offender denial and minimization.     

Inter-ethnic (In)tolerance between Turks and Kurds: Implications for Turkish Democratisation

Using public opinion survey data, this study investigates the determinants of inter-ethnic (in)tolerance among Turks and Kurds in Turkey. Our empirical analyses show that, compared with Turks, Kurds have a relatively higher level of tolerance towards the ethnic out-group. Our findings also suggest that different dynamics and factors mould Turks’ and Kurds’ tolerance towards ethnic out-group members. Religiosity, (ethno)nationalist orientations, inter-ethnic contact, threat perception and economic factors are the most consistent variables shaping Turks’ tolerance towards Kurds. In contrast, religion-related factors and inter-ethnic social contact do not have a statistically significant effect on Kurds’ tolerance towards Turks. (Ethno)nationalist orientations, however, appear to reduce Kurds’ tolerance.     

Dental age assessment: the applicability of Demirjian method in eastern Turkish children

In the literature, little is known about the applicability of this method in Turkish children. The aim of this study was, therefore, to evaluate the reliability of Demirjian method of age estimation when used for eastern Turkish children. A retrospective study was performed on a sample of panoramic radiographs taken from 807 healthy eastern Turkish children. The stages of dental maturity of the mandibular left seven permanent teeth for each subject using the eight radiographic dental maturity stages demonstrated by Demirjian were evaluated. A paired t-test was used for statistical analysis. The mean difference between the chronological and dental ages ranged from 0.2 to 1.9 years in girls and from 0.4 to 1.3 years in boys. The differences between the chronological and dental ages were statistically significant in all age groups. The applicability of Demirjian method is not suitable for eastern Turkish population.     

Russian revisionism: Holocaust denial and the new nationalist historiography

Holocaust denial has appeared in Russia only recently and has attracted almost no attention in the academic sphere, and relatively little from monitoring organizations. The research for this article - examining the place of Holocaust denial in contemporary Russia - was conducted over three months in Russia and on the Internet. The results indicate that the phenomenon remains of marginal significance and that the majority of material is of western origin. While there are several factors that make the development of Holocaust denial probable - the comparatively high level of antisemitism in Russia, post-Soviet suspicion of historiography and lack of education about the Holocaust - the Soviet war experience and associated anti-Nazi feeling arguably act as restraints on those who would propagate it. Rock concludes that Holocaust-denial material is of less importance than other antisemitic revisions of Russian history that have entered the mainstream of contemporary Russian society.     

So what's new? Rethinking the ‘new antisemitism’ in a global age

ABSTRACT

Judaken discusses the various strands that constitute the so-called ‘new antisemitism’. He argues that this is not the first time a new crisis of antisemitism has been heralded. Indeed, in the wake of every major struggle in the Arab-Israeli conflict since the Six Day War, prominent scholars and advocates have sounded the alarm about a crisis resulting from the rise of what they designated a ‘new antisemitism’. Moreover, what writers point to as the vectors of the new antisemitism—Holocaust denial, the antisemitism of the extreme left, antisemitism in the Islamic world, anti-Zionism as antisemitism, even anti-racism as antisemitism—all have a fairly long history. What has changed are the role of information technologies and the geo-global context in which they function. These technologies have both facilitated the global dissemination of antisemitism as well as furnishing new means of combatting it. At bottom, this electronic warfare is both a symptom and a cause of the global forces at work in antisemitism today. After delineating the constellation of factors in the rise of global antisemitism post-September 2000, Judaken then draws on the work of Léon Poliakov, Judith Butler, Jean-Paul Sartre and the Frankfurt School, among others, to assess what Pierre-André Taguieff most aptly calls the ‘new Judaeophobia’.