Balancing inside and outside lobbying: The political strategies of lobbyists at global diplomatic conferences

This article seeks to explain the use of inside and outside lobbying by organised interests at global diplomatic conferences. At first sight, the lobbying at these venues is puzzling as it does not seem to be a very fruitful way to acquire influence. The use of outside strategies especially is perplexing because most aspects of international negotiations fall outside of the purview of national constituencies. It is argued in this article, however, that the presence of outside lobbying is not so puzzling if lobbying is seen both as a way to attain influence and as a way to pursue organisational maintenance goals. Empirically, the article draws on interview data with 232 interest group representatives that participated at either the 2012 session of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Ministerial Conference in Geneva, or the 2011 (Durban) and 2012 (Doha) United Nations Climate Conferences. The analysis demonstrates that organisational needs, and especially the competition actors face in obtaining resources, significantly affects the relative focus of organised interests on inside and outside lobbying.     

Suicide Bombers in Iraq, 2003–2010: Disaggregating Targets Can Reveal Insurgent Motives and Priorities

Extending data reported by Mohammed Hafez in 2007, we compiled a database of 1,779 suicide bombers who attempted or completed attacks in Iraq from 2003 through 2010. From 2003 through 2006, monthly totals of suicide bombers show a pattern different from the pattern of non-suicide insurgent attacks, but from 2007 through 2010 the two patterns were similar. This biphasic pattern indicates that suicide attacks sometimes warrant separate analysis but sometimes are just one tactic in a larger envelope of insurgent violence. We also show that only 13 percent of suicide bombers targeted coalition forces and international civilians, primarily during the early years of the conflict, whereas 83 percent of suicide bombers targeted Iraqis (civilians, members of the Anbar Awakening Movement, Iraqi security forces, and government entities) in attacks that extended throughout the duration of the insurgency. These results challenge the idea that suicide attacks are primarily a nationalist response to foreign occupation, and caution that “smart bombs” may be more often sent against soft targets than hard targets. More generally, our results indicate that suicide attacks must be disaggregated by target in order to understand these attacks as the expression of different insurgent priorities at different times.     

The debate on a regional arms register in Southeast Asia

Abstract

ASEAN member states are no longer opposed in principle to military information sharing and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) is now actively considering ideas for new confidence‐building measures in this area. The first specific transparency measure supported by ARF was the UN Register of Conventional Arms, whose success in the region has been a result, at least in part, of its flexibility. Because of the limited scope of the UN Register, debate has continued on the possibility of a regional Register. As this debate has proceeded, however, it has become apparent that the creation of such a Register will require a number of complex and difficult issues to be resolved. What additional data should such a Register include? Who should be responsible for operating such a Register? Which countries should be included? Because of these difficulties, the prospects of a regional Register being established in the near future are rather slender. But, as they become more comfortable with the concept of transparency, there is still considerable scope for ARF members to do more to adopt regional ‘best practice’ in their replies to the main UN Register. The Register formula of framework plus flexibility could also be used as a model for the development of parallel transparency arrangements in areas other than arms transfers. The experience of the Register debate suggest that the development of concrete confidence‐building measures in the ARF region is likely to be a gradual process. Progress is possible, but is unlikely to transform levels of national openness on military affairs overnight. The main obstacles to increased transparency may prove to be domestic and political rather than international and military: demonstrating once again the way in which the confidence‐building agenda is linked to broader debates about the necessary political foundations of a secure regional order.     

UN Troop Deployment and Preventing Violence Against Civilians in Darfur

ABSTRACT

Does the presence of UN peacekeeping force lower civilian fatalities at the local level? If it does, is it because of their coercive military capacity or for other reasons such as their roles in monitoring and reporting violent atrocities? To explore these questions, I study the deployment of peacekeeping units in Darfur and its impact on violence against civilians. Using original geocoded data of UN deployments before and after the intervention, I examine what aspects of such deployments impact one-sided civilian killings by government and rebel groups. Results indicate that deploying UN peacekeepers in an area restrains belligerent from targeting civilians. However, the military capacity of peacekeepers is not a significant predictor of violence against civilians. While their ability to defend themselves is extremely important for peacekeepers, these findings caution against the militarization trend in UN peacekeeping and seek to reshift focus on other substantive aspects of peacekeeping.     

Culture in the post-2015 development agenda: the anatomy of an international mobilisation

Throughout 2012–15 several actors were advocating that culture be explicitly integrated within the post-2015 UN development agenda. My article offers an anatomy of the recent international mobilisation in order to understand the cleavages and the contrasting visions. In doing so, it seeks to analyse the policy process through which the agenda is made, why and how a critical mass of actors is attempting to embrace the inclusion of culture in the post-2015 agenda and the political reactions vis-à-vis this mobilisation. The article argues, on the one hand, that the promotion of culture in the post-2015 agenda is largely based on UNESCO’s will to advance its policy agenda and enhance its position within the UN system and, on the other hand, that this mobilisation lacks political support from the most influential governments; therefore its chances of success are more than contingent.     

A changing world: is the UN development system ready?

This article examines five contemporary areas of development concern that have become major drivers of global transformation since the turn of the millennium: the plight of fragile states; the emergence of new powers and new development funds in a changing aid landscape; the need for developing countries to manage the growing resources at their disposal; encroachments on the political sovereignty of states; and new global challenges that demand global action, including climate change, migration, and food security. These drivers of change call for responses from the UN – and in particular its development system of some 30 organisations. The ongoing protracted debate on the future UN development agenda should take cognisance of these changes if the system is to remain relevant after 2015. But the signs are not promising that either the agenda or the UN development system are up to the task.     

论国际恐怖主义的全球化趋势与国际法律控制

当前国际恐怖主义呈现出强劲的全球化发展趋势 ,而现行国际反恐法制治标不治本、规则取向不足、条约的巴尔干式、反恐措施单一、国际合作欠深入等弱点都亟待克服。只有全面构建和完善国际反恐法制 ,在断定和惩治国际恐怖主义方面具有更多的规则取向 ,并加强联合国在国际反恐斗争中的主导和协调作用 ,国际恐怖主义犯罪才会得到有效控制。而要彻底根除国际恐怖主义 ,必须建立国际政治、经济和文化新秩序。     

私主体参与行政任务的界限研究

自20世纪中后期以来,基于需求膨胀与有限政府的内在紧张,私主体参与行政任务被认为是各国打破行政垄断、推行公共行政改革的共同选择。但基于国家任务之不完全可授性、公民权利保障之不可克减性以及法律制度供给之非充分性等法理,私主体参与行政任务并非毫无界限。应当在遵循基本权利保留、适度性原则的基础之上,健全立法保障、恪守行政谦抑、完善社会监督,实现私主体参与行政任务的良好效果。     

1971年美国与台湾当局在联合国中国代表权问题上的有限“合作”

1971年第26届联大,由于判断即便全力支持,台湾当局也将在短期内失去联合国席位,美国以基于“两个中国”设计的“双重代表案”作为因应中国代表权问题的蓝本,并主张将安理会席位交归中华人民共和国政府的代表,以此换取国际社会对美案的支持;但台湾当局的代表将能否继续保有安理会席位视为应否继存于联合国的底线,双方围绕代表权问题经历了一段长期交涉。出于秘密运作与中华人民共和国改善关系的需要,同时也为迫使台湾当局接受“双重代表”安排,美国在对台交涉上采取了拖延策略。随着基辛格两次访华消息的相继公布,台湾当局在代表权问题上完全陷入被动,最终选择了对美国所主张的“复合双重代表案”持消极默认态度。     

Jan Christian Smuts (1870–1950) in Context: An Answer to Mazower and Morefield

This article engages with the recent scholarship of Mark Mazower and Jeanne Morefield regarding the South African and Commonwealth statesman Jan Christian Smuts (1870–1950), and in particular with their contention that Smuts was preoccupied with issues of racial superiority, and that this was his main motivator in matters of politics, both internationally and domestically. However, during his lifetime Smuts did not see the ‘Native question’ in the form in which it manifested from the 1950s onwards. It is therefore unfair and inaccurate to over-emphasise the racial question when writing about Smuts. Any historical account of Smuts must keep at least one eye on what Smuts could not have foreseen and must place Smuts in the context of his own time. Progression from smaller to greater wholes – one white nation instead of two language sections; a united South Africa instead of divided colonies and republics; membership of self-governing Dominions in a single British Commonwealth, and membership of international organisations, in particular the League of Nations, and later the United Nations – these were the ends to which Smuts’ energies were unreservedly devoted throughout his career. This is the correct lens through which to view Smuts’ liberal credentials.