Fighting terrorism in Africa by proxy: the USA and the European Union in Somalia and Mali

The French intervention in Mali in early 2013 emphasizes that the decision-makers in Paris, Brussels, and Washington considered the establishment of the radical Islamist regime in Northern Mali a threat to their security interests. The widespread instability including the rise of radical Islamist groups in Somalia was perceived as a threat to western interests. It is the core argument of the paper if western powers decide to provide security in Africa, they will be inclined to use proxy instead of deploying own troops. Security provision by proxy in African means that African troops are doing the actual fighting and peacekeeping on the ground while western powers basically pay the costs, the logistics, and the training of local African troops. The paper concludes that the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) in Somalia and The African-led International Support Mission to Mali (AFISMA) in Mali are proxies for the USA and the European Union.     

中美水污染防治法比较研究

借鉴美国在利用法律手段防治水污染问题上的成功经验,从中美两国水污染防治法的立法目的和调整重点、管理体制、调控机制、管理措施和实施保障等方面对两国的水污染防治法进行了初步比较。在此基础上,对完善中国的水污染防治法提出了一些建议。     

Human Services Providers’ Perspectives on Refugee Resettlement in the United States before and after the 2016 Presidential Election

Abstract

The United States has historically accepted and resettled refugees by opening its doors to those fleeing violence, armed conflict, or persecution around the world. However, the degree of receptivity toward refugee resettlement has vacillated over time. This study examines the challenges and opportunities that Refugee Resettlement Agencies (RRAs) experienced prior to and after the 2016?U.S. Presidential election. The findings presented in this paper, based on focus groups with the RRA staff, revealed that there is a greater need for understanding the refugee resettlement process and how changing immigration policies impact state-federal funding.     

Dealigned or Still Salient? Religious-Secular Divisions in Chilean Presidential Elections

With countries like Chile facing secularisation, some research predicts religious-secular cleavages will ‘dealign’, while other research suggests these cleavages will persist so long as religious-secular divisions are reflected among presidential candidates. Using surveys of first-round voting intentions in the five most recent presidential elections in Chile, the analysis shows that religious-secular divisions in voting appear when candidates are divided clearly along religious-secular lines (and not when divisions among candidates are blurred). These findings suggest researchers need to account for the impact candidates' positions have on the appearance of religious-secular divisions before declaring that dealignment has occurred.     

GCC-US Alliance-Making Reconsidered: The Travails of Dependency

ABSTRACT

Donald Trump’s presidency may have altered less in relations between the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council than recent accounts suggest. Instead, power relations between the US and its Gulf allies have long been, and continue to be, asymmetrical. Dependency theory and postcolonial analysis illustrate the ways in which the US global hegemon exhibits hierarchy, exerting control over Gulf economic resources (oil) and extending its ‘security umbrella’ (e.g. weapons sales and bases) – all in highly unequal dynamics. A critical discourse analysis of American and Saudi speeches during the 2017 Riyadh summit further confirms this assessment. This raises questions about alliance-making and alliance-maintenance norms of promise-keeping and reciprocity.     

Confidence in an election authority and satisfaction with democracy: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment of a failed election in Sweden

Contemporary research on electoral integrity has focused on the functioning, evaluation, and legitimacy of electoral processes in emerging democracies. By contrast, this study investigates whether a failed election in a well-established democracy can affect individuals' evaluations of the electoral management body, the Election Authority, and whether those evaluations affect satisfaction with democracy. Using the case of a Swedish regional election in 2010 that had to be rerun due to procedural mistakes in the vote handling, we found that, in the short term, individuals’ confidence in the Election Authority was reduced after it was announced that the election had to be rerun because of the mistakes. Subsequently, this decreased confidence was strongly associated with less satisfaction with democracy at the regional and national level. As good news for the authority, after a successful rerun election, confidence rebounded to the levels prior to the failed election.     

War Hypotheses: Drug Trafficking,Sovereignty and the Armed Forces in Mexico

This essay analyses how Mexican presidents have interpreted the concepts of drug trafficking and national security and how these particular connotations have redefined national sovereignty and the specific role of the armed forces in protecting this sovereignty. A qualitative technique of discourse analysis is used to examine public speeches by Zedillo (1994–2000), Fox (2000–2006) and Calderón (2006–2012). The conclusions suggest that drug trafficking and US omnipresence are the two main issues that shaped Mexico's national security threats during this period, with qualitatively distinct trajectories.     

中美特殊经贸关系与“契约”之路径

晚近,中美作为非同质的两个世界大国,新兴的一方与守成的另一方发生了巨大的权力变迁,相应地,双方在国际经贸领域的收益分配也出现了反转的态势,同时中美形成的激烈经济与战略竞争使得双方经贸关系"政治化"更加明显。缘此,中美之间的既有经贸关系正面临着前所未有的变动压力,或已难以完全固守普适于各国的统一"规则",客观上需要引入一种可适时而变的专门"契约"加以修补,借以寻求双方之间收益分配的再平衡。     

Forecasting the 2015 British general election: The 1992 debacle all over again?

This article introduces and reviews a set of twelve academic forecasts of the 2015 British general election. Along with the vast majority of others including journalists and betting markets, they failed by a big margin to predict that the Conservatives would emerge with an overall majority of seats. Several suffered from the 1992 scale inaccuracies of the vote-intention opinion polls. Forecasts based on other data sources typically did a bit better, but also fell short. Nonetheless, this was not 1992 all over again. The dramatic collapse of the Liberal Democrats and rise of the SNP, UKIP and Greens were successfully anticipated. Also this collection includes numerous methodological advancements, with several new methods and developments to established approaches.     

Presidential coattails and electoral coordination in multilevel elections: Comparative lessons from Brazil

This article seeks to understand how concurrent presidential and gubernatorial elections in strong federal systems affect electoral coordination and coattails voting between national and subnational levels of government. We seek to determine whether the nationalizing effect of presidential elections can overcome the strong incentives for regionalization that can arise in federal systems. We use individual-level survey data and time-series cross-sectional electoral data from Brazil, a federal country with decentralized electoral institutions that has recently adopted concurrent presidential and gubernatorial elections. We find that the congruence between national and subnational elections increases when elections are temporally proximate and the effective number of presidential candidates is low. In short, the coattails effect can not only operate “horizontally,” by shaping national legislative elections, but also “vertically,” by shaping subnational elections.