Local News Media and Voter Turnout

A reasonably high turnout is a quality of a local democracy. In this article, we investigate whether media coverage of politics leads to increased or decreased voter turnout. Based on a unique data set, our analysis shows that local news media coverage has a positive effect on voter turnout, but only if the news media provide politically relevant information to the voters and only at local elections. Both findings are in accordance with the Information Model, which states that rising levels of political relevant information increases the probability of voting.     

Investigating Life Course Offender Subgroup Heterogeneity: An Exploratory Latent Class Analysis Approach

Within developmental criminology, a common classification of offender behavior is life course trajectories broken into discrete groups of early onseters, late onseters, persisters, or desisters. Yet some investigators state that this is an oversimplification of offending behavior and may not be applicable to females and males. The current study utilizes National Youth Survey data and exploratory latent class analysis to determine whether substantive latent classes exist within offender life course trajectories for females and males and to examine differences between the genders across these groups. The analyses reveal the presence of 4 types of latent subgroups: (a) female-majority de-escalators, (b) male-majority persistent de-escalators, (c) male-dominated persisters, and (d) male-majority chronic fluctuators. Post hoc analyses reveal similarities and differences among the latent groups. Research implications of this study suggest further explorations into whether strict 2-pronged developmental models are indeed appropriately tapping and capturing the full essence of criminal careers for both females and males. The results suggest that continued programming that disrupts delinquent peer associations and reduces consumption of drugs and/or alcohol may be promising in promoting desistance—particularly for females.     

Testing a Predictive Model of Voter Behavior on the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election

Abstract

Utilizing a predictive model of voter behavior, this study identified the motivations behind a sample of voters who cast a ballot for George W. Bush and AI Gore in the 2000 presidential campaign. The motivations of the voters were differentiated on the basis of the “value” they sought in a president. In other words, just as companies in the “commercial marketplace” have to create value to attract customers, so does a candidate in the “political marketplace” who is seeking to carve out a niche for himself that separates him from his competition. Pairwise discriminant analysis is used to identify the motivations behind the choice behavior of voters at both the candidate and party level. The results reveal the complimentary roles that the political party and each candidate's campaign organization played in their respective marketing strategies.     

Issue and leader voting in U.S. presidential elections

The “Issues and Leaders” model shows that aggregate votes for President in U.S. elections from 1972 to 2012 can be accurately predicted from people's perceptions of the candidates' issue handling competence and leadership qualities. For the past five elections, the model's ex ante forecasts, calculated three to two months prior to Election Day, were competitive with those from the best of eight established political economy models. Model accuracy substantially improved closer to Election Day. The Election Eve forecasts missed the actual vote shares by, on average, little more than one percentage point and thus reduced the error of the Gallup pre-election poll by 30%. The model demonstrates that the direct influence of party identification on vote choice decreases over the course of the campaign, whereas issues gain importance. The model has decision-making implications in that it advises candidates to engage in agenda setting and to increase their perceived issue-handling and leadership competence.     

The effect of congruence in policy priorities on electoral participation

This paper proposes that voters are more likely to turn out at elections if candidates and parties address their issue concerns in the election campaign. Voters with high levels of congruence in policy priorities should perceive the campaign as more interesting and the election as more relevant. In addition, the costs associated with the vote choice should be lower if voters' policy priorities are salient. The effect should be weakened by party identification, which acts both as a mobilising force and as a heuristic to the vote choice, making information costs less detrimental to turnout. The analysis, which links voter survey data with candidate survey and media content data from the 2009 German federal election, confirms the hypotheses.     

Heterogeneity of Girls’ Consensual Popularity: Academic and Interpersonal Behavioral Profiles

The present study explored the heterogeneous nature of popularity by investigating subgroups of popular girls (N = 365) in their first year of secondary school (mean age  =  13.05). Cluster analysis revealed the presence of five subgroups based upon sociometric popularity (i.e., those considered likeable by peers) and consensual popularity (i.e., those considered popular by peers), and academic behavioral indices. Two of these groups contained girls who were all nominated as “popular” by classmates, yet the girls in one group displayed very positive academic behaviors (Popular Studious); girls in the other popular group displayed extreme antiacademic behaviors (Popular Disengaged). The remaining groups were Average Popular, Unpopular Disengaged, and Unpopular Studious. External validating measures confirmed the existence of the subgroups, that is, Popular Studious girls were judged by classmates to behave in a prosocial fashion, whereas Popular Disengaged girls exhibited many antisocial behaviors, and were often nominated as bullies. Unpopular Studious girls were often nominated as victims. These findings confirmed the hypothesis that consensual popularity is a heterogeneous concept, and that antiacademic and antisocial girls may still be among the most consensually popular students in secondary schools.Lecturer at the Department of Educational Sciences, University of Amsterdam, Wibautstraat 4, 1091 GM Amsterdam, The Netherlands. His interests include the academic and social behavioral correlates of consensual popularity in adolescence.Associate Professor and Head of Developmental Division, Department of Psychology, University of Connecticut. His interests include peer relations, social behavior, and social cognition in middle childhood and early adolescence.     

洛阳市生态环境问题成因分析及改善对策

通过系统研究,定量分析了洛阳市2000-2002年3年间环境空气与水环境污染现状,系统探讨了该市城市化进程中出现的主要环境问题,并运用生态景观异质性理论和方法,结合实际调查,分析了生态环境问题形成的主要原因,提出了洛阳市改善生态环境与可持续发展对策.     

Decision rules,membership and political centralization in the European Union

The decision to enter the European Union is based on a comparison of the costs of staying out and going it alone, and the costs membership. The latter depend on the degree of preference heterogeneity between prospective members and the Union as well as the decision rules employed for “constitutional” decisions. The same calculus guides the decision, by member states, to shift policies up to the Union level, only now the decision rules refer to centrally assigned policies. Preference heterogeneity makes more inclusive rules optimal in either case while at the same time reducing the attractiveness of membership or the centralization of policies to the EU level, respectively. The analysis complements and extends both traditional fiscal federalism literature as well as the more recent political economics literature on federalism.

Winning cures everything? Beliefs about voter fraud,voter confidence,and the 2016 election

Rhetoric about “rigged” elections has raised concerns about the solidity of public trust in the integrity of the voting system. Mitigating these concerns, research by Sinclair et al. (2019) on the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign documents a robust “winner's effect” on voter confidence despite intense partisan messaging aimed at influencing citizens' acceptance of the legitimacy of the election. This suggests that regularly fluctuating electoral outcomes in competitive democracies limit the impact of elite messages on trust in electoral institutions. A critical question is whether similar dynamics apply to dimensions of electoral trust that are more clearly partisan-branded and targeted, such as beliefs about the prevalence of illicit voting. This paper uses a panel study with waves conducted before and after Election Day 2016 to compare the effect of election on beliefs about the extent of illicit voting and voter confidence. Underlining both the promise and limitations of democratic competition as a counterweight to elite efforts to sow electoral distrust, there are significant “winner's effects” on both but substantially smaller impact on beliefs about illicit voting, a difference that is especially large among strong Republican partisans.     

The undecided voters and the economy: Campaign heterogeneity in the 2005 British general election

Research and conventional wisdom suggest that undecided voters are especially prone to campaign persuasion. Little has been done, however, in the way of uncovering the decision pathways followed by these voters. In this paper we seek to assess the undecided voters’ alleged campaign susceptibility and, most importantly, to explore which campaign considerations inform their final voting decisions. Our central finding is that their behaviour is driven to a larger extent by economic performance and less by leadership or other valence evaluations. This finding has important implications for parties’ campaign strategies in an era where the ranks of undecided voters are steadily expanding from one election to the other.