Attitudes to voting rules and electoral system preferences: Evidence from the 1999 and 2003 Scottish Parliament elections

Researchers have paid little attention to the way citizens evaluate different electoral systems. This reflects the limited knowledge citizens are presumed to have about alternative electoral arrangements. However, the establishment of a legislature under new electoral rules creates conditions in which citizens can make more informed judgements. Such a situation occurred with the establishment of the Scottish Parliament in 1999, elected under the Additional Member system. Using data collected in 1999 and 2003, we consider Scottish voters’ reactions to the new electoral rules. We examine how voters evaluated various features and outcomes of the rules, the structure of voters’ attitudes, and which features and outcomes of the rules were decisive in shaping overall support for plurality and proportional voting systems.     

The household effect on electoral participation. A contextual analysis of voter signatures from a French polling station (1982–2007)

We use electoral participation data coded from signature lists to show that patterns of voter turnout, be they related to average participation, versatility or precise moments of voting, are strongly related to what we call “electorate households”, i.e. groups of voters registered in the same polling station and living together. Each household tends to be homogeneous, at levels much higher than chance would explain, so that modelling individual participation without taking this household effect into account ignores much of what actually happens. The status in the household also plays an important role among individual factors of voter participation. Not only do people who live together often participate together, but the precise shape of their relationships influences their behaviour.     

Vota por tu Futuro: Partisan Mobilization of Latino Voters in the 2000 Presidential Election

Over the past two presidential elections, the major parties have been making a push at appealing to Latinos, airing over 3000 political advertisements in Spanish in the 2000 presidential election. In this paper, we ask whether the political ads used in the 2000 election had any effect on Latino turnout. We argue that the effectiveness of ads on the likelihood of turnout depends on how targeted the ad is to Latinos and the individual’s process of acculturation. We test our hypotheses using data from the Campaign Media Analysis Group, merged with data from the 2000 National Annenberg Election Survey. We find that the effectiveness of the ads on the likelihood of turnout was mediated by the individual’s dominant language, which is taken as a proxy for the process of acculturation.

Are city elections unique? Perceptions of electoral cleavages and social sorting across levels of government

A long tradition of scholarship has argued that the cleavages that animate urban politics are distinct from those that structure regional or national politics. More recent scholarship has challenged this view, demonstrating the relevance of cleavages that apply at higher levels of government, such as partisanship and ideology, for urban elections. We contribute to this debate by investigating the perceptions of urban residents themselves. Using survey data from a major Canadian city, we use a novel survey question battery to compare how urban residents understand municipal and provincial electoral cleavages. We consider two questions that speak to the distinctiveness of local politics: (1) How do electors perceive coalitions of support at the two levels of government, and do perceptions of coalitions differ across levels? (2) How do perceptions compare to actual electoral coalitions at the two levels? We find little evidence to support the view that local electoral cleavages are unique.     

What is the impact of bilingual communication to mobilize Latinos? Exploratory evidence from experiments in New Jersey,North Carolina,and Virginia

Should materials aimed at increasing Latino voter turnout be in English or bilingual? Credible, theoretical arguments can be made both ways: bilingual materials may be more effective if signaling cultural awareness or less effective if seen as pandering. We tested these competing hypotheses with two rounds of randomized field experiments in New Jersey and Virginia in 2015, and North Carolina in 2016. While some GOTV experiments have used bilingual mailers, previous scholarship has not tested whether bilingual mailers are more effective than English-language materials. In the 2015 elections, both treatments increased turnout, and the monolingual English version was more effective at increasing turnout than the bilingual version. These results are replicated in the high salience 2016 election in North Carolina. These results indicate that further research is needed about bilingual communication across political and demographic contexts and about how household composition may condition the effects of bilingual communication.     

Measuring the strength of voter turnout habits

Voting in one election makes a person more likely to vote in future elections. Researchers often interpret the over-time turnout persistence as evidence of psychological habit formation. But there are few theoretically motivated or empirically validated measures of voter turnout habit. This study contributes by clarifying the concept of turnout habit and developing and validating a seven-item measure of the concept. The paper describes turnout habit as a durable disposition to vote determined by an ability to automatically initiate voting and self-identify as a frequent voter. The new measure is validated using U.S. and UK survey data. Turnout data are from both voter files and self-reports. Varied methodological approaches, including a confirmatory factor analysis and receiver operator characteristic curve analysis, provide evidence of the measure's validity. Habit predicts future turnout independent of election-specific considerations, self-predictions, and age. The habit measure discriminates between eventual voters and abstainers as well as respondents' own self-predictions. Self-report voting habit measures appear valuable for answering theoretical questions about why people vote and practical questions about how best to identify likely voters in survey data.     

Voter turnout and municipal amalgamations—evidence from Denmark

ABSTRACT

The study utilizes evidence from the Danish 2007 municipal reform to inquire into the relationship between municipal amalgamations and voter turnout, that is, the classical discussion on size and democracy. The Danish municipal reform is particularly suited for investigating the relationship as a large number of units were merged due to reasons thought to be unrelated with the democratic performance while others were left unchanged. This allows us to investigate the relationship in a quasi-experimental setup. The study finds some evidence of a short-term positive effect on turnout and only limited evidence of a medium- to long-term negative effect when comparing amalgamated and non-amalgamated municipalities. However, stronger indications of negative effects on turnout are found when considering the intensity of the amalgamations.     

The new electoral power brokers: macro and micro level effects of ‘born-free’ South Africans on voter turnout

The emergence of a born-free South African generation holds significant implications for voter turnout. At the macro level, the youth bulge has changed aggregate turnout patterns, supporting Franklin’s [(2004). Voter turnout and the dynamics of electoral competition in established democracies since 1945. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press] argument that demographics shifts produce changes in aggregate political behaviour even when individuals do not change their behaviour. At the micro level, born-free South Africans exhibit attitudinal and cognitive differences from their older, partisan-led counterparts when deciding to vote, lending some support to Dalton’s [(1984). Cognitive mobilization and partisan dealignment in advanced industrial democracies. The Journal of Politics, 46(1), 264–284] cognitive mobilisation thesis.     

The Calculus of Voting in Compulsory Voting Systems

Compulsory voting laws have consistently been demonstrated to boost electoral participation. Despite the widespread presence of compulsory voting and the significant impact these laws appear to have on voting behavior, surprisingly little effort has been devoted to analyzing how mandatory voting alters the decision-making calculus of individual voters in these systems. Moreover, studies that investigate the influence of compulsory voting laws on electoral participation generally treat these policies monolithically, with scant attention to the nuances that differentiate mandatory voting laws across systems and to their consequences for voting rates. Analyses that explicitly and empirically examine the effects of penalties and enforcement are surprisingly rare. This study aims to fill that void by adapting rational choice models of participation in elections for compulsory voting systems. I find that the level of penalties countries impose for non-compliance and the degree of penalty enforcement impact turnout rates. Voters in mandatory voting systems abstain least when both the penalties and the likelihood of enforcement are high, and abstain most when both meaningless.