Bayesian hierarchical age-period-cohort models with time-structured effects: An application to religious voting in the US, 1972–2008

To examine dynamics of political processes using repeated cross-section data, effects of age, cohort, and time period have to be disentangled. I propose a Bayesian dynamic hierarchical model with cohort and period effects modeled as random walk through time. It includes smoothly time-varying effects of covariates, allowing researchers to study changing effects of individual characteristics on political behavior. It provides a flexible functional form estimate of age by integrating a semi-parametric approach in the hierarchical model. I employ this approach to examine religious voting in the United States using repeated cross-sectional surveys from 1972 to 2008. I find starkly differing nonlinear trends of de- and re-alignment among different religious denominations.     

Do non-citizens vote in U.S. elections?

In spite of substantial public controversy, very little reliable data exists concerning the frequency with which non-citizen immigrants participate in United States elections. Although such participation is a violation of election laws in most parts of the United States, enforcement depends principally on disclosure of citizenship status at the time of voter registration. This study examines participation rates by non-citizens using a nationally representative sample that includes non-citizen immigrants. We find that some non-citizens participate in U.S. elections, and that this participation has been large enough to change meaningful election outcomes including Electoral College votes, and Congressional elections. Non-citizen votes likely gave Senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health care reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress.     

Sage Advice

正Living in an age when world leadership seems to increasingly operate with an absence of conscience,the wisdom of the wise sage,Confucius,provides a foundation of values that is well worth the study.The book,Confucius From the Heart,written by Professor yu Dan and published in 2009 by Zhonghua Book Co.,is a remarkable presentation of how the words of the ancient sage can serve as a buoy for those lost at sea in a world of tumultuous decision-making.     

论城市居家养老服务多元合作体系的建设及发展——以上海市静安区为例

当前,人口老龄化问题现在已经成为一个全球性的问题,而中国的老龄化问题尤其严重,表现出绝对数量大,高龄化趋势显著,未富先老等特点,同时,养老服务市场供给缺口很大,给政府提出了一个很大的难题。本文首先分析了居家养老产生的背景,对居家养老、居家养老服务体系等概念进行了界定,总结了居家养老在发达国家和地区的运用。继而从理论上对于居家养老服务体系的建设进行了概括,并且以上海市静安区为例,对静安区居家养老服务体系的建设进行了详细的分析,最后提出了在居家养老网络体系的建设中遇到的问题,以及完善该网络体系的意见和建议。最后文章对于全文作出了总结。     

英国社区法律咨询服务概述

英国社区法律咨询服务，是英国法律援助制度之一的社区法律服务的重要组成部分，在英国法律服务委员会提供的专项资金支持下，社区法律咨询服务与独立的法律咨询组织和律师合作，为广大经济困难的英国居民提供丰富的、保密且独立的免费法律咨询服务。在我国加大法律援助宣传教育工作之际，十分值得我国借鉴。     

A perfect match? The impact of statement selection on voting advice applications' ability to match voters and parties

This study examines how statement selection systematically affects the output of voting advice applications (VAAs). Does the statement selection influence how often voters are matched with parties that ‘should be’ close to them? Our benchmark is a classic account of issue voting, the proximity left–right model. We analyze the Belgian VAA Do the Vote Test and find that the output resembles the left–right model. When more left–right statements are included, more left-wing voters get the advice to vote for left-wing parties and the same is true on the right, while simultaneously advantaging parties with more extreme positions on this dimension. We also analyze issue saliency and find that parties are disadvantaged when more statements about salient issues are included. These findings imply tough choices for VAA builders.     

Selection biases in Voting Advice Application research

This paper focuses on methodological aspects of Voting Advice Application (VAA) research. Self-selection into the treatment and self-selection into the sample need to be controlled for if the aim is to deduce causal effects from VAA use in observational data. This paper outlines omnipresent endogeneity issues, partly imposed through unobserved factors that affect both whether individuals use VAAs and their subsequent electoral behavior. Some research on VAAs has acknowledged the problems associated with selection biases, but practically none have taken steps towards improving these shortcomings. This paper introduces various approaches for handling selection biases and applies them to VAA data from Switzerland. These methodological considerations are of outmost importance for the relevance and validity of VAA research.     

Economic or cultural backlash? Rethinking outsiders’ voting behavior

Political economists show that outsiders (unemployed and temporary workers) support redistributive policies more than insiders (standard dependent workers) and infer outsiders' voting behavior from their desired degree of State intervention in the economy. However, it has been suggested that international interdependence is reshaping the political space along two dimensions: the traditional economic left-right scale, and an emerging cultural integration-demarcation dimension. How do outsiders behave in this two-dimensional political landscape? This research note answers this question by combining individual data from the latest five waves of the European Social Survey (2008–2016) with party positions provided by the Comparative Manifesto Project on 27 European countries. Integrating research based on party families with parties’ policy positions, results show that the economic State-market dimension is still more linked to outsiders’ voting behavior than the cultural integration-demarcation dimension.     

Class voting, social changes and political changes in the Netherlands 1971–2006

To what extent can the decline of class voting in the Netherlands be explained by sociological factors (compositional changes, the evolution of the class structure and economic progressivism) and political factors (a party-merger and changing party positions)? Multinomial logit (MNP) and conditional logit (CL) are employed using the Dutch Parliamentary Election Studies (1971–2006) and data of the Comparative Manifesto Project. We find that the rise of the class of social-cultural specialists is important for understanding changes in the class–vote relationship. Surprisingly, the impact of economic progressivism became more important for left-wing voting. Finally, although there seems to be a clear relation between party positions and the strength of class-based voting, the party positions hardly explain the assumed linear decline in class-based voting.     

Raising the tone? The impact of ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ campaigning on voting in the 2007 Scottish Parliament election

Most survey-based research on campaign effects in British elections has focussed on exposure to the campaign. Far less attention has been given to how the campaign is perceived, although American research on the effects of negative campaigning suggests that this is a potentially important area. The article investigates the extent to which vote choices in the 2007 Scottish Parliament election were affected by perceptions of the parties’ campaigns as ‘positive’ or ‘negative’. Partisanship and increased exposure to a party’s campaign increased individuals’ chances of rating a campaign positively. Other things being equal, however, campaigns which come to be seen in a negative light backfire on the party responsible, reducing the propensity of people to vote for it.