20世纪国际关系领域的基准时间:历史视角中的三次世界大战

基准时间是宏观历史过程中的临界点,标志着一连串的重大变革可能会在较长时间内延续。基准时间具有九条标准,可以分为一等基准时间、二等基准时间和三等基准时间。20世纪的基准时间主要包括三次世界大战(一战、二战和冷战),第二次世界大战前后发生的变革比第一次世界大战和冷战前后的变革都要来得更为深远。将20世纪的三个基准时间置于两个世纪的视角中加以审视,可以突出现代性革命,这种视角能够观察20世纪的三个基准时间在正在展开的"全球性变革"这一大的主题下是否会相互联接、是如何相互联接的。20世纪国际政治的关键事件,都应该被视为19世纪"全球性变革"所引发的发展态势和挑战的后期结果。     

Presidential roles and rhetoric

Traditional literature on the public dimensions of the American presidency suggests that the office has a significant impact upon the political lives of Americans and that contemporary presidents frequently appeal for public support to pressure other government elites. This study systematically analyzes rhetorical references to the presidency by examining a president's articulation of presidential roles in public speeches and press conferences. This study finds that Johnson, Nixon, and Carter did rhetorically refer to presidential roles, especially when confronted by crisis and controversy. The implication is that when confronted by serious controversy, presidents tell Americans about the responsibilities of the presidency in an effort to mobilize public support.     

内战反对派武装的联盟构建与内部冲突——以叙利亚内战为例

在内战进程中,不同的反对派武装组织有时会构建起联盟共同反抗政府军,而有时则会相互袭击引发内部冲突。对于此现象的解释已是当前内战研究理论的重点。通过回顾既有研究对此问题提出的物质因素和理念因素解释,文章认为单纯的理念因素和物质因素均无法解释反对派联盟的形式与瓦解。因此,文章提出了一个将物质因素和理念因素进行整合的分析框架,分析理念因素与物质因素交互影响反对派联盟形成和内部冲突。在政府军实力较强的情况下,理念因素无法起作用,而反对派内部实力均衡与否也将使得理念因素对联盟构建产生不同的影响,并且外部支持则会加强理念在反对派联盟形成中的影响作用。文章以叙利亚内战作为阐释性案例,采取案例内比较的方式,对提出的逻辑进行分析。     

Cyprus’s Non-military Contribution to the Allied War Effort during World War I

Abstract

No fighting took place on Cyprus during the First World War. However, the island acquired an important role both as a source of provisions and as a recuperation home for injured soldiers. Indeed, between 1914 and 1918 the small, poor and under-developed island of Cyprus became a major provider of grain, timber, tobacco and mules while military convalescent homes on Mount Troodos were built to accommodate thousands of injured Allied soldiers. Cyprus’s use for the war effort inevitably had a significant impact on the island’s economy and infrastructure. During the war years the island experienced a boost in its agricultural production and an influx of money while several technical services were established to facilitate transportation and communication. By examining such themes this paper sheds important light on a critical period of Cypriot history, though one that remains largely unexplored.     

甲午战争前后日本女性地位考察

甲午中日战争的胜利、《马关条约》的签订以及巨额的赔款,成为日本资本主义发展的转折点。日本女性地位也受此影响,日本资本主义工厂的增设提供了女性就业的岗位,免费初级教育的实施增加了女子教育的机会,但是女工权益受到严重侵害,《教育敕语》渗透在学校教育中,女性家庭地位更加低下,无参政权。     

From clouds of chemical warfare to blue skies of peace: the Tehran Peace Museum,Iran

Despite the limited number of peace museums around the world, there exists an essential role for existing peace museums to promote a culture of peace and peace education. The purpose of this article was to introduce the origins, rationale, scope and work of the Tehran Peace Museum in Iran. The concept of the museum is to facilitate peace education and develop peaceful environments drawn from the personal experiences of war survivors. The museum encompasses exhibitions about the horrors of chemical and nuclear warfare and is balanced with awareness programmes, bridge-building dialogues, connections with other peace museums and a comprehensive peace education programme catering for younger and older members of society. It offers the space and opportunity for a community of learning within the museum and welcomes fresh ideas and initiatives from visitors and volunteers. The Tehran Peace Museum is unique in its body of volunteers, men and women who have been directly affected by chemical weapons. They are involved in the Veterans Voices of Peace Oral History Project and actively voice the need for creating peaceful societies in today’s world.     

Building the Rule of International Criminal Law: The Role of Judges and Prosecutors in the Apprehension of War Criminals

International criminal tribunals are weak institutions, especially since they do not have their own police forces to execute arrest warrants. Understandably then, much of the existing literature has focused exclusively on pressure from major powers and on changing domestic politics to explain the apprehension of suspected war criminals. In contrast, this article turns attention back to the tribunals themselves. I propose three ways in which the activities of international criminal tribunals impact compliance with arrest warrants: through the selection of individuals to indict, demonstrated leniency on some suspects and outreach to domestic legal professionals. Using a duration model that accounts for sample selection and data collected on the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia and the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, I test these theories alongside other existing explanations. I find that court activities can have an independent effect on the successful implementation of international criminal law.

决策者到底如何归因?——一项基于美国外交档案的研究

面对充满不确定性的世界。个体通常通过一种被称为归因的心理机制从不完全的信息中解释他人做出某种行为的原因。类似但更为特殊的心理机制也会发生在当一个国家的决策者需要理解另一个国家的行为以采取某种应对之策的时候。当外交决策者们在试图解释他国的行为时,他们会将哪些变量纳入他们的考虑范畴?他们对他国行为进行归因的方式是否会因情境的不同而有所变化?如果确实有所变化,那么他们在归因时将会存在哪些倾向和偏见?外交决策者通常从能力、决心、利益、意图和该国所处的战略环境五个维度来认知另一个国家行为的原因。而恐惧和族群中心主义均会作用于这五个维度,并且在不同的情境下,两者在各维度的作用方式有所差异。为了验证唐世平提出的行为归因理论,作者采用了一种特殊的内容分析技术——逐字解释文本分析——对1945-1947年间的美国外交档案进行了分析和编码,试图利用二战结束至冷战开始这段时间内美国的主要决策者对苏联行为所进行的数以百计的归因,并对上述归因理论进行经验上的探索。验证结果表明,描述性的证据分析部分支持了这一新的归因理论,但也挑战了这一理论中关于能力、决心和环境维度的部分推断。     

甲午启示录——朝鲜半岛篇

1894年甲午战争爆发后,朝鲜在摆脱与清王朝之间藩属关系的同时又陷入了日本侵略势力的魔掌。随着世界反法西斯战争的胜利,朝鲜终于挣脱了日本的殖民枷锁,获得了独立自主。然而,1954年日内瓦会议关于朝鲜问题的讨论无果而终,无情地宣告朝鲜半岛又进入了南北分治时代。当新的甲午年来临之际,回顾前两个甲午年朝鲜半岛的历史,总结其经验教训,将会为我们客观认识和妥善处理当前朝鲜半岛问题,避免历史悲剧的重演,提供一些有益的启示。