Legitimising liberal militarism: politics,law and war in the Arms Trade Treaty

Post-cold war efforts to knit together human rights and international humanitarian law in pursuit of tougher arms transfer control reached their apogee in the UN Arms Trade Treaty (ATT). In contrast to dominant accounts based on human security norms, I argue that a key effect of the ATT is to legitimise liberal forms of militarism. During negotiations the US and UK governments justified their arms export practices in terms of morality, responsibility and legitimacy. More broadly their arms transfer practices are explained away by reference to national regulatory regimes that exceed the standards set out in the ATT. Arms transfers to Egypt and intra-Western transfers illustrate the way these justifications and regimes serve to shield US–UK weapons transfers and use from scrutiny and accountability. Rather than signalling the victory of human security, the ATT is better understood as facilitating the mobilisation of legitimacy for contemporary liberal forms of war fighting and war preparation.     

监督与钳制：国会监督权与美台军售决策——以美国国会对《与台湾关系法》的监督为例

对国会立法的实施进行监督是国会最重要的宪政职能之一.在<与台湾关系法>出台之后,美国国会以监督行政部门"切实"、"全面"实施该法的有关规定为名,通过推动美台军售升级、取消对台军售限制、参与军售决策过程、钳制总统军售决策权等方式,对美台军售决策施加了强大的影响,并屡屡导致中美关系因军售问题而出现波折起伏.     

Is Politics Behind Trade? The Impact of International Trends and Diplomatic Action on Brazil's Exports during Globalisation

Although it is well known that domestic and international factors converge to affect a nation's foreign policy orientation and trade, their actual weights vary. Brazil's situation during globalisation sheds light on this issue. Through statistical and qualitative analysis, this article shows how structural factors, rather than diplomatic action, influenced the direction of Brazil's exports as the country became more integrated into the world economy. It was only under Cardoso's presidency that trade had an impact on bilateral diplomacy. The findings contradict conventional wisdom, which emphasises the state's role in driving Brazilian integration into the global economy.     

国际安全视角下太空军控的缘起、演进和发展动向

推进太空军备控制关乎各国航天事业发展和人类命运共同体的构建。1957年苏联太空力量的出现,使美国产生了“导弹差距”的恐慌,双方很快就展开了太空军备竞赛。在核恐怖对峙中,美苏双方逐渐认识到,实现太空军备控制符合双方战略利益和国际社会期盼,因此到20世纪60年代后期形成了太空军控第一阶段的系列成果。1991年苏联解体后,太空领域出现了权力严重失衡的局面,太空军控由20世纪70—80年代的弱纳什均衡状态转瞬陷入徘徊、倒退。冷战前后的第二阶段因美国的阻挠和退约,太空军控成果乏善可陈。2011年以来,太空军控进入第三阶段,呈现出大国激烈角力、阵营泾渭分明、议题交叉融合等特点和态势。面对太空军事化的严峻现实,世界各国需要在总结太空军控历史实践经验教训的基础上,遵循其内在机理和规律,积极探索和参与制定推进太空军控的有效应对策略和议题方案。     

A Review of: “Devin R. Springer,James L. Regens,and David N. Edger. Islamic Radicalism and Global Jihad. Stephen Vertigans (with contributions from Donncha Marron and Philip W. Sutton). Militant Islam: A Sociology of Characteristics,Causes, and Consequences. David Aaron. In Their Own Words: Voices of Jihad.”

Chinese arms sales to Africa have increased in recent years. In a region beset by conflict and unstable regimes, and where arms sales are a significant and positive predictor of an increased probability of political violence, this is inherently problematic. The sale of weaponry to a regime in Khartoum caught up in an alleged “genocide” in Darfur, the awkward appearance in 2008 of a Chinese ship loaded with weapons bound for Mugabe's Zimbabwe off the coast of eastern Africa, and the recent exposure in 2011 that Chinese arms companies offered to sell around $200 million worth of arms to Muammar Gaddafi's regime are emblematic of an issue in Africa's political violence that needs analysis. This article seeks to discuss the rationale behind China's arms sales to Africa and the effect that they have had on political violence in recipient countries. It also provides an analysis of the supply-and-demand circumstances of Chinese arms transfers to Africa, Beijing's attempts to control such transfers, and evidence that Chinese policies on proliferation are (slowly) evolving.     

Small arms,big guns: a dynamic model of illicit market opportunity

Transnational illicit markets are deeply embedded within legal trade systems and thus should be affected by shifting market conditions. Applying a stochastic actor-oriented model (SAOM), this study tests whether variation in illicit market opportunity could account for changing relations within the small arms trade (2003–2008). Measures of market accessibility – changes in export activity, reporting transparency and the percent of the labour force that is armed – outperformed measures of weapon availability with the exception of involvement in armed conflict. Significant structural change in outdegree density and transitivity suggest the development of trade factions, and decreasing balance hints that leaders are emerging. With the pending de-escalation of US-led conflict in the Middle East, a flood of second-hand weaponry is about to enter the market. Continued research is required to further uncover how the legitimate trade infrastructure facilitates the illicit flow of goods.     

The ASEAN naval build‐up: Implications for the regional order

This paper examines the ongoing ASEAN force modernization in the light of whether it is stabilizing or destabilizing for the region. Donald K. Emmerson's framework for analysing security regimes — the concentration or dispersion of power in achieving regional order — is employed as a basis for analysis. The paper comes to the conclusion that while the ASEAN arms build‐up will not have a destabilizing effect on the wider Asia‐Pacific regional order or balance, it could have serious implications for ASEAN and Southeast Asia. This is because while the actual increase in the number of weapon systems and platforms is not large, it still constitutes a significant increase in percentage terms, and even more so with regard to capability. Moreover, the ASEAN members are building up their forces at a time when there are no obvious military threats. They are in effect engaged in contingency planning. All these factors could be destabilizing for ASEAN's internal balance. As such, there is a need for ASEAN to address the arms build‐up, and introduce confidence‐building measures. One suggested forum for transparency measures is the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF).     

试析菲律宾出口导向型工业化发展战略

自 8 0年代中期起 ,菲律宾政府对经济发展模式进行调整 ,通过推行出口导向型工业化发展战略 ,经济运行环境从过去那种高封闭、高干预的状态向着一种较为开放、宽松的环境过渡 ,增长方式发生了显著变化 ,经济发展速度明显加快 ,摆脱了此前发展中存在的“增长 -衰退”不良循环状态 ,整体经济呈现出了较好的发展前景。     

China's policies towards arms control and disarmament: From passive responding to active leading

This paper reviews the evolution of China's policies towards arms control and disarmament in the past four decades. In so doing it analyzes the major factors shaping policy development, highlights the new challenges that China now confronts in arms control and disarmament and advances a new agenda for China in the contemporary context.     

Selling to Both Sides: The Effects of Major Conventional Weapons Transfers on Civil War Severity and Duration

Civil wars are primarily fought with small and light arms, but the availability of major conventional weapons to states and rebels can alter the nature of the war being fought. This study explores the impact of major conventional weapons transfers on civil war severity and duration. By using a recipient based approach to arms transfers, I find rebel acquisition of major conventional weapons from international sources leads to conflict escalation and deadlier conflicts. State importation of major conventional weapons is associated with longer conflicts. These findings provide researchers a means to account for rebel capabilities in civil war research and policy makers insight to limit the destructiveness of civil wars.