The Syrian chemical weapons disarmament process in context: narratives of coercion,consent, and everything in between

This article explores the successful Syrian chemical weapons disarmament process (2013–2014) within the context of post-Cold War coercive arms control policy and scholarship, particularly related to the Middle East. Based on extensive interviews with individuals involved in the process, we explore the coexistence of two rival, apparently contradictory narratives: one (backed by Western states) claimed coercion was the main contributor to disarmament, while the other (defended by Syrian authorities and Russia) insisted on the process’s consensual features. Our study suggests that the hybrid disarmament framework, embodied in a unique joint mission between the United Nations and the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, conveniently accommodated both narratives, which in turn contributed to the mission’s success. We then ask whether, with the apparent US retreat in the Middle East, the Syrian case (as well as the 2015 Iran nuclear deal) signals a possible turn in international non-conventional arms control processes that would leave more room for consent and diplomacy.     

Power at Sea: A Naval Power Dataset, 1865–2011

Naval power is a crucial element of state power, yet existing naval data sets are limited to a small number of states and ship types. Here we present 147 years of naval data on all the world’s navies from 1865 to 2011. This country-year data set focuses on warships with ship-based weapons capable of using kinetic force to inflict damage on other structures or peoples. After identifying a country’s active naval forces, we create a measure of naval power based on the aggregate tonnage of the active ships. Additionally, we create count variables for ship types such as aircraft carriers or battleships. This article introduces the country-year data, describes variables of interests for use in country-year, dyadic, or systemic studies, and suggests potential questions of interest scholars could explore using the naval power data set.     

应用微积分对非制式枪械杀伤力的检测与分析

鉴定枪械杀伤能力是检测枪械的重要项目之一。根据内弹道原理,从火药燃烧产生能量经过一系列转变为弹丸飞离枪 口动能的数学分析,经过微积分方法推导出内弹道的四个基本方程,以及对其中各变量的求解,得出鉴定结论。     

War Games redux? Cyberthreats,US–Russian strategic stability,and new challenges for nuclear security and arms control

Some 30 years since the release of the Hollywood blockbuster War Games, the possibility that hackers might break into nuclear command and control facilities, compromise early warning or firing systems, or even cause the launch of a nuclear weapon has become disturbingly real. While this challenge will impact all nuclear-armed states, it appears particularly acute for the USA and Russia given their large, diverse, and highly alerted nuclear forces. The fact that east–west relations have deteriorated to a nadir perhaps not seen since the 1980s, strategic instability has increased – particularly in the wake of the Ukraine and now Syria crises – and that the nuclear arms reductions agenda appears to have reached a standstill makes this challenge particularly pressing. In this discouraging milieu, new cyberthreats are both exacerbating the already strained US–Russia strategic balance – particularly the perceived safety and security of nuclear forces – and at the same time creating new vulnerabilities and problems that might be exploited by a third party. Taken together, these dynamics add another major complication for current arms control agreements and possible future nuclear cuts, and also seem likely to increase the possibility of accidents, miscalculation, and potential unauthorised nuclear use, especially given the large number of nuclear weapons that remain on “hair-trigger” alert.     

民事诉讼中证明负担减轻的全景式解读

民事诉讼中确立证明责任分配的一般准则是以罗森贝克的法律要件分类说为基础的“规范说”，但一般准则在个案中可能带来实质的非正义，因为在民事诉讼中存在证据偏在与武器不对等的问题，这在现代型诉讼中尤为突出．为此，必须在一般标准之外设置减轻证明负担的具体技术，以维护当事人之间的实质公平。这些证明负担减轻技术具体包括，证明责任之转换、推定、证明妨碍、证明标准降低等。我国未来民事诉讼法修改也应该注重设置证明负担减轻技术，保障实质正义的实现。     

金融危机下我国外贸形势分析及相关对策

金融危机引发全球经济走势恶化,由于我国外贸依存度较高,因此进出口整体形势异常严峻。当务之急,应尽快认识当前国际经济环境,积极寻求对策。通过对我国近年外贸形势阐述,分析目前所面临的主要风险,并提出相应对策。     

警察临战处置中武器使用的风险及应对

警察在涉枪案件临战处置中武器的使用是有风险的，这些风险与警察使用武器的法定性、强制性、战术性等特征有直接联系；警察武器使用的风险主要有执法风险、心理风险、武器操作风险、战术风险等；其应对措施主要有警察应合法、合理、有效地使用武器，为执法警察开展法律咨询协助，进行战术心里训练，提高民警危险评估能力，积极树立防范意识等。     

联合国CCW框架下致命性自主武器系统 军控辩争的焦点与趋势

在人工智能革命背景下致命性自主武器系统(LAWS)军控逐渐成为国际热点议题,联合国《特定常规武器公约》(CCW)会谈机制作为其核心平台召开了三次非正式专家会议和三次正式政府专家组会议。技术层面,主要探讨了LAWS的定义和特点,各方基本同意LAWS军控不应当妨碍民用人工智能技术创新,但对目前是否应制定及如何制定LAWS可行定义等问题存在分歧;伦理层面,讨论焦点在于LAWS对于人权和道德的冲击,各方基本认为不应将生死决定权让渡给机器,但对机器是否作为道德主体等问题存在分歧;法律层面,主要关注LAWS对现有国际人道法的冲击,各方基本同意现有国际人道法依旧适用于LAWS管控,但在是否需要除现有国际法之外增加监管机制等问题上存在分歧;军事层面,主要探讨了LAWS扩散风险对战略稳定性的冲击及存在的局限性等问题,各方基本同意研发部署LAWS的责任在于国家和指挥官,但在预防性禁止还是暂时放任,甚至鼓励发展LAWS等问题上存在分歧。展望未来,这一军控机制可能推动制定各方接受的LAWS工作定义,探索将伦理道德嵌入LAWS的可能性与方法,建立LAWS的法律审查机制,拟定暂停部署LAWS的政治宣言或法律文书。由此,中国应继续积极参与CCW框架下LAWS军控探讨,推动管控相关战略风险及伦理法律挑战,以维护自身国家利益和人类安全福祉。     

East Meets West in Anti-Money Laundering and Anti-Terrorist Finance: Policy Dialogue and Differentiation on Security, the Timber Trade and ‘Alternative’ Banking

This paper compares and contrasts South East Asian and European Union countries’ perceptions of the priorities for anti money laundering (AML) and anti terrorist finance (ATF) in relation to three industries: security goods and services; the timber trade; and ‘informal’ value transfer and banking services. It might be expected that all countries would equally support each of these aspects of AML/ATF policies, without differentiating between the industries generating the proceeds. As this paper will show, however, historical experiences, contemporary political relations and patterns of trade shape countries’ approaches, resulting in distinctive enthusiasms and reservations. In a nutshell, the EU points most strongly to products and services originating in Asia as posing AML/CTF risks, and locates primary responsibility for monitoring and control as falling within Asia - a projection of risk and responsibility that is reciprocated by Asian countries. Asian countries perceive a need for tighter control of dangerous products exported by the west, for example, small arms and light weapons, and of related money laundering circuits. Asian and European policy makers increasingly articulate concerns over illegal logging and related laundering, however European importers and their governments see responsibilities for this as falling primarily within Asia. Finally, the EU (like the US) perceives high levels of laundering risk in ‘informal’ value transfer/banking services, in which Asian-run businesses have a global competitive advantage. For the future, as the international balance of trade shifts, and as Asia increases its influence in international fora including those concerned with AML/CTF, so the region’s policy preferences may be expected to carry more weight.