Analyzing the Performance of Risk Assessment Instruments: A Response to Vrieze and Grove (2007)

In a recent article, Vrieze and Grove (Law Hum Behav, doi: 10.1007/s10979-007-9092-x , 2007) argue that, because of low recidivism base rates and limited predictive accuracy, an actuarial risk assessment instrument (ARAI) may produce decisions about sex offenders that are worse than simply predicting that no one will commit another sex offense. This article examines: (1) the construction and potential overfitting of ARAIs; (2) the meaning, value, and limitations of ROC areas; and (3) the relationship between the operating point that maximizes an ARAI's correct classifications and the legal criterion-"likely to reoffend"-used for sex offender designations. Contrary to what Vrieze and Grove suggest, ARAIs of modest accuracy yield probabilistic information that is more relevant to legal decision-making than just "betting the base rate."     

A Selection of Empirical Socio-Economic Research with Respect to the Functioning of Legal Rules and Institutions in Belgium and the Netherlands

In this paper some studies with respect to empirical socio-economic research which has been undertaken in Belgium and the Netherlands concerning the functioning of legal rules and institutions are discussed. The paper focuses on the domains of criminal law, civil procedure, liability and insurance. The paper argues that contrary to the overwhelming economic literature on liability and insurance, the empirical results in that domain are poor. More research is undertaken in the area of criminal law and apparently it is overwhelming in the area of civil procedure. The latter studies are, however, mainly undertaken by socio-legal scholars and less by economists. The general conclusion of the empirical studies discussed seems to be that while the empirical literature on the effect of changes in the decision making environment on rational actions in the legal system is rich and provocative, there is much less empirical testing of the effects of legal rules as such on allocational outcomes. The paper argues that much more effort should be devoted to the latter issue.     

关于改进和完善竞争性选拔干部方式的几点思考

竞争性选拔是干部选拔任用的重要方式之一,在促进干部队伍中优秀人才脱颖而出方面发挥了积极作用,但也存在着一些不容忽视的问题,为此,应在明确职能定位、确定适用标准、抓好关键环节、完善监督机制、构建制度体系等方面下功夫,在实践中努力改进和完善竞争性选拔干部方式。     

准据法选择的新方法:基于人本视角的研究

Traditional theory often emphasizes the abstract national sovereignty not private rights. The value and rules of the method to choose applicable law need to be constructed. In the theory based on the protection of people and the private rights, The method to choose applicable law should be on the premise of respecting national sovereignty, which should attach more importance to the protection of private rights, respect the principal position of people, give play to the role of the body of the people, safeguard the interests of the people, pay attention to the value of people, be placed in the equal status of domestic and foreign law, emphasize the foreign-related civil and commercial disputes solved properly and protect the civil right from damage.     

翻译单位与译者的主体性

学翻译过程是一个涉及多种选择的复杂过程,贯穿于翻译全过程的选择集中体现在翻译单位的确立上。本文评介了翻译学界对“翻译单位”命题的研究,肯定了Rado提出的“逻辑素”观点的重要意义,并提出翻译单位的研究和确立体现了译者的主体性,这对于翻译批评和翻译实践都将有重要意义。     

Preferential selection and outcome justice: Effects of justification and merit discrepancy

In applying the relative deprivation theory to preferential selection research, Singer (1991) used a within-subjects design and showed that ethnicity-based selection induced feelings of injustice among the disadvantaged target group, the Europeans; and that the level of felt injustice could be predicted by the discrepancy in merits between the successful minority candidate and the rejected European candidate. This study aimed to cross-validate the findings with a between-subjects design, and to ascertain whether the provision of either an ideological or a causal justification would reduce feelings of injustice. The results replicated previous findings and further showed that either type of justification exacerbated perceptions of injustice among European respondents, but it had no effect on fairness perceptions of Asian subjects. The theoretical implications of the results were discussed.     

美国政府高层公务员选拔管理机制考察

20 0 0年 9月 ,笔者赴美国洛杉矶加州州立大学学习一年。期间 ,对美国政府高层公务员选拔管理机制进行了深入考察。考察内容包括 :美国政府高层公务员的选任方式 ,考察公务员的方式及量化方法 ,班子结构及群体效率 ,能下机制及其配套环境 ,有效监督的连锁性机制等方面     

公共选择理论与我国公安机关行政改革

我国的公安机关行政改革经过了多年的实践,虽然取得了一定的成就,但总体来说仍然停留在一个较低的层面上,目前的公共选择理论是近年来西方行政科学的新鲜理论,对我国包括公安改革在内的行政体制改革有深刻的启发意义。我们不仅可以利用公共选择理论来解释我国公安行政改革中存在的问题,而且也可以吸收公共选择理论中的科学与合理成分来改革公安工作,以增进效益、提高效率。     

道德选择的心理分析

选择是个人在自己面临的各种可能性之间进行取舍的一种特殊活动.道德选择是内外自由耦合作用的结果,其主要的心理机制是道德判断力和自我意识.通过对道德选择的流程进行信息加工分析,可以进一步理解道德选择的具体过程.道德的两难选择则是双趋冲突、双避冲突的表现,有着不同于一般道德选择的内涵、特征及其作用,它是人们处于两种冲突的利益关系之中必须作出行为决断的选择.道德两难选择也意味着在个体面前发生了两种利益冲突,二者必选其一.个体可以通过增强平衡机制处理道德选择中的冲突和矛盾.     

政府制度选择的道德核心范畴

政府制度选择必然是利益冲突条件下的公共选择,是在一定的伦理原则支配下进行的伦理行为。政府制度选择必须遵守以公正为核心道德范畴的伦理准则。历史上许多思想家的相关论述都有不同的片面性和狭隘性。坚持政府制度选择的核心范畴和首要原则———公正,就必须坚持起点的公平、过程的公正、成本的合理和结果的适当。