Do 90 Percent of Terrorist Groups Last Less than a Year? Updating the Conventional Wisdom

ABSTRACT

Prominent scholars criticize terrorism research for lacking sufficient empirical testing of arguments. Interestingly, one of the most widely cited estimates in terrorism studies has not been evaluated using the many data sources now available. Rapoport’s 1992 claim, that perhaps 90 percent of terrorist groups last less than one year, has been described as part of the conventional wisdom. This estimate is frequently used to justify studies of terrorist group longevity, a substantial line of research in recent years. Is the estimate accurate? Scholars increasingly publish data sets of terrorist organizations, but no one has analyzed them collectively to see if the 90 percent claim holds up. This article examines the eight largest global data sets of terrorist group longevity, covering 1968–2013. The samples vary considerably, but the percentage of groups that do not survive beyond their first year in these relevant data sets is between 25–74 percent. Across all data sets, on average about 50 percent of terrorist organizations do not make it past their first year. There is some variation depending on group motivations, consistent with Rapoport’s “wave” theory. However, overall, terrorist organizations appear to be more durable than the conventional wisdom suggests.     

Data protection in Europe – Some thoughts on reading the academic manifesto

The commentary by academics on the proposed European General Data Protection Regulation in [2013] 29 CLSR 180 has provoked thoughts in response. The responder strongly agrees with the doubts expressed about the definition of personal data, anonymisation and the identifiability of individuals. On the other hand, he disagrees with the views on consent and legitimacy and proposes support for a risk-based approach to data protection. He suggests that data protection does not need to be defended from the attack that it stifles business, but is justifiable for its assertion of fundamental rights. In conclusion, he shares the criticism of the European Commission's delegated and implementing powers and is concerned that the Regulation will be rushed to a conclusion for reasons of political ambition.     

Privacy by design and anonymisation techniques in action: Case study of Match technology

Privacy by Design is now enjoying widespread acceptance. The EU has recently expressly included it as one of the key principles in the revised data protection legal framework. But how does Privacy by design and data anonymisation work in practise? In this article the authors address this question from a practical point of view by analysing a case study on EU Financial Intelligence Units (“FIUs”) using the Ma³tch technology as additional feature to the existing exchange of information via FIU.NET decentralised computer network. They present, analyse, and evaluate Ma³tch technology from the perspective of personal data protection. The authors conclude that Ma³tch technology can be seen as a valuable example of Privacy by Design. It achieves data anonymisation and enhances data minimisation and data security, which are the fundamental elements of Privacy by Design. Therefore, it may not only improve the exchange of information among FIUs and allow for the data processing to be in line with applicable data protection requirements, but it may also substantially contribute to the protection of privacy of related data subjects. At the same time, the case study clearly shows that Privacy by Design needs to be supported and complemented by appropriate organisational and technical procedures to assure that the technology solutions devised to protect privacy would in fact do so.     

共享发展新坐标:时代价值、阻滞因素及实践进路

党的十九届五中全会提出2035年"全体人民共同富裕取得更为明显的实质性进展"的目标,成为我国进入新发展阶段后党制定的关于共享发展的新坐标,这是以人民为中心发展思想的生动体现,也是实现全体人民共同富裕和人的自由全面发展的必由之路.但实现这样的目标还面临着思想观念、现实生产力、体制机制等主客观阻滞因素,为此本文提出从高质量...     

关于行业治安管理中身份验证登记制度的探讨--以福建省为例

行政许可制度的改革,使行业治安管理工作出现一些新情况、新问题。如何执行好身份验证登记制度,是治安管理部门面临的一项课题。公民维权意识的增强,企业在市场经济中追求利益最大化,行业治安管理所依据的法律制度不健全,行政部门条块化管理的沟壑,以及当前警力紧张的压力等,使得治安管理部门在执行特种行业以及某些存在治安风险的行业身份验证登记制度中力不从心。当前应通过健全相关法律、创新管理方式,以推进制度的执行,扎实做好治安基础工作。     

财政分权、地方财政赤字与土地财政

基于地方财政赤字的视角,研究财政分权与地方政府土地财政策略的内在作用逻辑,通过理论分析发现:地方财政赤字激励了地方政府在利益觉醒后利用预算制度缺口,用"扭曲之手"来攫取预算外财政收益,进而驱动地方政府实施积极的土地财政策略来实现财政增收的政策目标。省际面板数据的实证结果进一步验证了财政分权、地方财政赤字对土地财政的正向驱动作用。土地财政的治理从深化分税制改革、改善地方财政收入结构、变革土地财政形成机制、完善行政绩效考核体制、加强预算监管等方面入手。     

New Challenges Posed by Robots to China’s Civil Code in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

In the age of artificial intelligence (AI), robots have profoundly impacted our life and work, and have challenged our civil legal system. In the course of AI development, robots need to be designed to protect our personal privacy, data privacy, intellectual property rights, and tort liability identification and determination. In addition, China needs an updated Civil Code in line with the growth of AI. All measures should aim to address AI challenges and also to provide the needed institutional space for the development of AI and other emerging technologies.     

The Europeanization of national elections. The role of country characteristics in shaping EU issue voting

Research has shown that voting in European elections is affected by domestic politics. However, in the last years, and particularly after the European debt crisis, also the EU has gained relevance and salience in national politics. In this paper we address the Europeanization of national elections and assess to what extent the characteristics of countries condition the intensity of EU issue voting. Using data from the European Election Studies and the Comparative Manifestos Project, our results demonstrate the importance of congruence between citizens' and parties’ positions on the EU for the individual vote on the national level and show how this varies across countries. We provide evidence that EU issue voting is more intense in countries with more political influence in the EU as well as in countries that are net contributors to EU funds.     

Long‐Run Labor Market Effects of the Job Corps Program: Evidence from a Nationally Representative Experiment

Job Corps is the nation's largest and most comprehensive career technical training and education program for at‐risk youth ages 16 to 24. Using the sample from a large‐scale experiment of the program from the mid‐1990s, this article uses tax data through 2015 (20 years later) to examine long‐term labor market impacts. The study finds some long‐term beneficial effects for the older students, with employment gains of 4 percentage points, 40 percent reductions in disability benefit receipt, and 10 percent increases in tax filing rates in 2015. For these students, program benefits exceeded program costs from the social perspective. This study is the first to establish that a national program for disconnected youth can produce long‐term labor market gains, and can be a positive investment made for society. The results suggest that intensive, comprehensive services that focus on developing both cognitive and noncognitive skills are important for improving labor market prospects for this population.     

Quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) methodology in forensic toxicology: Modeling postmortem redistribution of structurally diverse drugs using multivariate statistics

Postmortem redistribution (PMR) constitutes a multifaceted process, which renders the analytical results of drug concentrations inaccurate to be interpreted by forensic toxicologists. The aim of the present study was to evaluate whether quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) methodology could serve as an effective tool to estimate the ability of drugs to redistribute across tissue barriers during postmortem period on the basis of their molecular, physicochemical and structural properties. In this aspect, multivariate data analysis (MVDA) was applied to a set of 77 structurally diverse drugs. PMR data expressed by the central:peripheral concentration ratio (C:P ratio) was taken from the literature. An adequate and robust QSAR model (R² = 0.65, Q² = 0.56, RMSEE = 0.34) was established for 59 (77%) out of 77 drugs. Although the derived QSAR model presented limited applicability, it provided an informative illustration of the contributing molecular, physicochemical and structural properties in PMR process. Drugs with strong basic properties and enhanced molecular size, flexibility, lipophilicity and number of halogens were found to be susceptible to increased PMR. Due to the high complexity of PMR process, further QSAR studies need to focus on structurally related drugs to develop more specific models, which could serve as alternative tools to evaluate PMR for different chemical classes.