关于按照“三个代表”要求深化行政改革的几个问题

深化行政改革的首要问题是按照"三个代表"要求,加快行政观念变革,同时,还要紧紧抓住政府职能转变这个核心,以及把规范政府管理行为的根本举措--依法行政,真正落到实处.     

Static and Dynamic Patient Characteristics as Predictors of Criminal Recidivism: A Prospective Study in a Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Sample

If clinicians in forensic psychiatry want to reduce risk of reoffending in their patients, they require insight into dynamic risk factors, and evidence that these add predictive power to static risk indicators. Predictors need to be evaluated under clinically realistic circumstances. This study aimed to validate dynamic and static variables as predictors of reconviction in a naturalistic outcome study. Data on static and dynamic risk factors were collected for 151 patients discharged from Dutch forensic psychiatric hospitals. Community follow-up was prospective, with a 5.5 year minimum. A prediction model was developed using Cox regression analysis. The magnitude of the predictive power of this model was estimated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The final prediction model contained four static and no dynamic predictors. The model's ROC area under the curve was .79 (95% CI .69–.89). Clinical risk ratings were non-predictive. Post hoc analyses exploring the influence of subgroups of patients did not yield better models. It is concluded that a small set of static predictors yielded a good estimate of future reconvictions; inclusion of dynamic predictors did not add predictive power.     

国际关系理论中的地区主义

地区主义有着世界经济和国际关系两种主要讨论方法.本文主要从国际关系理论的角度出发,首先对地区主义的基本概念进行阐释,然后对国际关系理论中涉及地区主义的有关学说和流派进行梳理,并特别对地缘经济学与地区主义的关系进行分析,在此基础上归纳了地区主义的基本逻辑.文章最后就地区主义研究的可能走向提出了自己的看法,并初步提出了"地区政治经济学"的概念.     

于坚散文的诗性精神

于坚作为新生代诗歌的代表人物,其口语化写作已形成独特的个人风格。他在散文创作上对诗性精神的坚持和建立,为当代散文写作注入了新的活力。他对民间写作立场的坚持,对日常生活的关注,以及对传统和现代化之间矛盾冲突的焦虑,使他的散文充满了自由、浪漫而不飘浮的诗意,为当代散文拓展了表现空间,也使他在中国当代散文发展进程中有了不可忽视的价值和意义。     

动态网页技术浅析

随着计算机网络的飞速发展,早期的静态网页已经不能适应日益增长的网络事务的复杂需求,动态网页技术已经站在了网络技术的最前沿。本文主要从动态网页开发技术发展的角度,着重介绍了开发动态网页所用的几种动态网页技术。     

和谐劳动关系的特征与劳资博弈的探析

和谐劳动关系是和谐社会的基础,和谐社会的特征体现在劳动关系上,就是要让劳动者劳动更有尊严、生产更加安全、分配更加公平、生活更有保障。同时还应包括平等合作观、人本观、利益共享观、稳定观、诚信观和社会责任观。和谐劳动关系是实现企业组织与劳动者之间“和则两利”的双赢关系。     

对社会主义初级阶段的再认识

要用“三个代表”重要思想进一步认识社会主义初级阶段的合理性。社会主义初级阶段是整个建设有中国特色社会主义的很长历史过程中的初始阶段,而社会主义初级阶段在发展过程中则有着内容不同的分阶段;第一分阶段是社会主义初级阶段的初始阶段;第二分阶段是建设小康社会的阶段;第三分阶段是实现社会主义现代化的阶段。     

论邓小平理论的科学特征

邓小平理论是继毛泽东思想之后马克思主义基本原理与中国具体实践相结合的又一次理论飞跃,是建设有中国特色社会主义的理论指导.邓小平理论具有科学理论性、社会时代性、集体智慧性、实践指导性、继承发展性和开拓创造性的特征.     

Tacit Collusion in the Frequently Repeated Multi-Unit Uniform Price Auction for Wholesale Electricity in England and Wales

Tacit collusion between National Power and PowerGen, the dominant generators in England and Wales for most of the 1990s, was widely speculated but was not definitively proven. In the event of a legal determination, the best available evidence is a test of suspicious patterns of bidding behavior. The methodology has two stages: the first is to show that the suspects behave differently from the rest, which are assumed competitive; the second stage is to ask whether or not strategies of suspects affect one another. Results: the impact of suspects on the aggregate bid function can not be explained away by costs and common market events, and a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) on strategies of the suspects reveals bid inter-dependence and co-ordination on demand trends. A quarter of the dynamic indicators support an inference of tacit collusion. The existence of multiple equilibria in supergames, however, prevents a conclusive statement.     

Restricted Charitable Donations and the “Cy Pres” Doctrine

Courts apply the cy pres doctrine to best approximate deceased donor restrictions when these become illegal or impossible to carry out. I show, in a model of strategic donations, that a commitment to further protect deceased donor restrictions attracts more funds today at the price of inefficient allocation of funds tomorrow. The analysis identifies the benefits and costs of relaxing the doctrine, suggesting that a more flexible application by properly balancing its impact on present donations and future efficiency concerns, if feasible, would better serve to promote intergenerational social welfare.