公安统计学教学中的实例教学法探讨

针对公安管理专业学生在学习公安统计学时普遍存在的抽象难懂、学而会用的状况，应用实例教学法可以较好地解决这一难题。这种方法既有利于培养学生阅读、理解、分析、判断统计数据的能力，又在一定程度上解决了统计学教学中长期存在的理论与实践相脱节的问题，还提高了学生的统计素养。     

A quantitative method for estimation of volume changes in arachnoid foveae with age

Age-related changes of arachnoid foveae have been described, but objective, quantitative analyses are lacking. A new quantitative method is presented for estimation of change in total volume of arachnoid foveae with age. The pilot sample consisted of nine skulls from the Palmer Anatomy Laboratory. Arachnoid foveae were filled with sand, which was extracted using a vacuum pump. Mass was determined with an analytical balance and converted to volume. A reliability analysis was performed using intraclass correlation coefficients. The method was found to be highly reliable (intraobserver ICC = 0.9935, interobserver ICC = 0.9878). The relationship between total volume and age was then examined in a sample of 63 males of accurately known age from the Hamann-Todd collection. Linear regression analysis revealed no statistically significant relationship between total volume and age, or foveae frequency and age (alpha = 0.05). Development of arachnoid foveae may be influenced by health factors, which could limit its usefulness in aging.     

浅谈对少量字的检验

少量字的检验是目前文件检验的一项主要内容 ,因其字数少 ,犯罪嫌疑人的书写习惯体现不充分 ,检验起来有一定难度。本文对两例无伪装的典型少量字的检验进行了类比分析 ,以期探求少量字检验的科学方法 ,为案件侦破提供可靠的科学依据。     

建构主义视域中的风险及其动态治理——以面粉增白剂的存废为例

风险是未来损失的可能性,具有社会建构的特征,"面粉增白剂"之争验证了建构主义风险理论。在建构主义视域中,风险治理不仅要使风险最小化,还要实现其他的政治和道德目标,并对影响风险的诸多因素进行反思。风险的动态治理,是实现制度动态效率的必然选择。它的有效性以结果为导向,合理性以未来为导向,进而需要不断学习,吸收新思想新观念,并逐步形成一种新的治理文化。     

构建社会主义和谐社会是一项复杂的社会系统工程

社会主义和谐社会是一个复杂的动态网络系统,而构建社会主义和谐社会则是一项复杂的社会系统工程。这项工程在运行机制和功能上都有其特殊的表现。不仅如此,它还内蕴着规律的复杂动态网络系统的交互作用。正确把握这些规律及其交互作用,对于推进社会主义和谐社会的建设至关重要。     

新经济的动态竞争与反垄断之两难命题——以谷歌案为例

新经济的动态竞争是一种良性循环:创新激励竞争促使其追求垄断地位,而竞争和垄断又会进一步激励创新.对新经济运用反垄断既可能会削弱或阻碍动态竞争,又可能违背消费者的最终利益追求.从最近美国与欧盟对谷歌搜索行为发起的调查来看,执法者对新经济适用反垄断传统标准的态度显得更加灵活和谨慎.     

情谊行为、法外空间与民法对现实生活的介入

民法学视野中的情谊行为包括纯粹的情谊行为和转化形态的情谊行为。纯粹的情谊行为不属于民事法律行为,而是处于"法外空间"的纯粹生活事实,法律不应当过度介入这一社会生活层面的关系,否则将使得社会生活规则被破坏殆尽。情谊行为在一定条件下可能转化为受民法调整的民事法律事实,进入"法内空间"。广义情谊行为中的情谊合同、情谊无因管理、情谊侵权行为是纯粹的情谊行为的转化形态,也都已属于民事法律事实,进入民法的调整领域。爱需要法律,法律在规制爱的过程中需要与其他社会规范相协调,以妥当界定"法外空间"与"法内空间"。民法面对情谊行为应该保持谦抑的态度,民法通过相应的技术调整手段实现对情谊行为施惠者的宽容、鼓励和必要的引导。     

被伐树木整体分离痕迹检验中特殊特征和固有特征的运用

被伐树木形成的整体分离痕迹有其独特性,反映出特有的规律。本文介绍了在盗伐林木案件中,运用整体分离痕迹检验原理、方法,检验被伐树木分离面、分离缘的形态,检验其凸凹断茬特征、虫眼特征、裂纹特征、空心特征等特殊特征以及节子特征、年轮特征、木射线特征、树皮纹理特征等固有特征。特别是在两对应的锯断面之间木质完全缺失情况下,综合运用上述特征有针对性地检验,解决了部分被伐树木整体分离痕迹检验中分离痕迹能否作为同一认定证据、分离体是否原为同一整体的问题。文中所述对被伐树木上的特殊特征和固有特征的研究和运用,拓宽了被伐树木整体分离痕迹检验中特征标记的范围,为丰富被伐树木整体分离痕迹的检验方法提供了参考。     

Weight of authorship evidence with multiple categories of stylometric features: A multinomial-based discrete model

This study empirically demonstrates the efficacy of a two-level Dirichlet-multinomial statistical model (the Multinomial system) for computing likelihood ratios (LR) for linguistic, textual evidence with multiple stylometric feature types with discrete values. The LRs are calculated separately for each feature type, namely, word, character and part of speech N-grams (N = 1,2,3), which are combined as overall LRs through logistic regression fusion. The Multinomial system’s performance is compared with that of a previously proposed system with the cosine distance (the Cosine system) using the same data (i.e., documents collated from 2160 authors). The experimental results show that: (1) the Multinomial system outperforms the Cosine system with the fused feature types by a log-LR cost of ca. 0.01 ～ 0.05 bits; and (2) the Multinomial system is more advantageous in performance with longer documents than the Cosine system. Although the Cosine system is more robust overall against the sampling variability arising from the number of authors included in the reference and calibration databases, the Multinomial system can achieve reasonable stability in performance; for example, the standard deviation value of the log-LR cost becomes lower than 0.01 (10 random samplings of authors for the reference and calibration databases) with 60 or more authors in each database.     

博弈论维度的警察临战

博弈论是研究策略行为的科学,它研究理性的个体在相互依存时如何作出决策。警察临战具有博弈性,警察临战活动充满着多方利益与策略的博弈。基于对警察临战博弈要素和基本类型的分析,博弈论对警察临战活动具有三个层面的指导意义：观念层面,博弈论将为我们提供新的警察临战行为理念;制度层面,博弈论可以为临战制度的架构提供参考;策略层面,博弈论将为我们制定临战方案提供参考。