从应对贸易摩擦到预防经济脱钩:2019年中国经济外交形势分析

2019年,中国经济外交在严峻的国际经济环境中负重前行,取得了一系列进展。首先,以建设性姿态与美国展开经贸谈判,最终在年底达成中美第一阶段贸易协议,避免了中美经贸关系的进一步恶化。其次,积极加大对欧洲、日本、俄罗斯以及东南亚等主要经济体的经济外交,推动国际经济合作,力促RCEP完成谈判。这些努力在一定程度上化解了中美贸易战带来的负面影响。第三,中国的"带路"外交进入机制化建设的新阶段,尤其是新建立的"一带一路"新闻与智库交流机制得到各方积极响应。展望2020年,中美经贸关系依然错综复杂,WTO改革压力重重,欧洲和日本等主要经济体对中国的疑虑可能会进一步发酵,中国经济外交依旧充满挑战。     

Dynamics of protest and electoral politics in the Great Recession

This article links the consequences of the Great Recession on protest and electoral politics. It innovates by combining the literature on economic voting with social movement research and by presenting the first integrated, large-scale empirical analysis of protest mobilisation and electoral outcomes in Europe. The economic voting literature offers important insights on how and under what conditions economic crises play out in the short-run. However, it tends to ignore the closely connected dynamics of opposition in the two arenas and the role of protests in politicising economic grievances. More specifically, it is argued that economic protests act as a ‘signalling mechanism’ by attributing blame to decision makers and by highlighting the political dimension of deteriorating economic conditions. Ultimately, massive protest mobilisation should, thus, amplify the impact of economic hardship on the electoral losses of incumbents and mainstream parties more generally. The empirical analysis to study this relationship relies on an original semi-automated protest event dataset combined with an updated dataset of electoral outcomes in 30 European countries from 2000 to 2015. The results indicate that the dynamics of economic protests and electoral punishment are closely related and point to a destabilisation of European party systems during the Great Recession.     

产业联盟与“能源诅咒”:委内瑞拉与俄罗斯的现代化“宿命”

古典经济学认为,能源大规模出口的财富效应有助于推动出口国的经济增长,然而20世纪70年代以来世界主要能源出口国经济增长普遍放缓甚至停滞的残酷现实表明,丰富的能源很可能并非推动经济增长的"祝福",而是拖累经济的"诅咒"。为了探讨诱使能源出口国陷入"能源诅咒"的原因及其作用机制,本文基于产业联盟理论建立了涵盖能源出口国现代化起点、政体类型、出口条件的分析框架,重点分析上述三个因素对能源产业联盟实力强弱的影响。通过对能源出口国主要政治与经济数据的定量分析以及对委内瑞拉和俄罗斯陷入"能源诅咒"的案例研究,本文发现,能源出口国的现代化起点较晚、实行威权政体、出口条件改善催生了强大的能源产业联盟,并巩固和扩大了其相较于其他产业联盟的实力差距。强大的能源产业联盟贡献了巨额税汇、提供了畸形补贴、左右了选举结果,由此诱使政府与政治家对其形成了病态的依赖,限制了其他产业的发展并最终拖累了经济增长。     

Street Trees,the Private Finance Initiative and Participatory Regeneration: Policy Innovation or Incompatible Perspectives

In common with other northern cities, Sheffield has experienced a dramatic reduction in funding from central government. Its response has been twofold. Firstly, to reduce the cost of service delivery, in part through augmenting or replacing public sector service provision through transfer to voluntary bodies and/or the private sector; the latter through private finance initiative (PFI) contracts. Secondly, the local authority has sought to promote economic regeneration through increased citizen involvement and participation. The problem for this combined strategy is that the two approaches have clashed over a previously underrated and overlooked area of public provision, namely the maintenance of street trees. Issues relating to the design of the contract, the economic imperative inherent within PFI contracts, initial reaction to popular protests, and reluctance to acknowledge the authority of alternative perspectives, have combined to undermine the salience of the participatory regeneration model for key sections of the local community.     

Growth,governance and corruption in Bangladesh: a re-assessment

This paper revisits Bangladesh’s ‘double paradox’ – sustained macroeconomic growth despite the poor state of governance and a high level of corruption – by critically reviewing trends in governance and corruption indicators during 1990–2017 vis-à-vis other South Asian countries. In addition, we draw upon data from a purposefully designed survey of manufacturing firms to assess the state of economic governance in the export-oriented ready-made garments (RMG) sector, the country’s main source of foreign exchange and driver of economic growth. Consistent with the country’s poor ranking in a host of indicators of investment climate and corruption perception, in-depth interviews of RMG factory owners confirm the high cost of doing business in various forms. We also find no evidence of growth-mediated improvements in indicators of governance. On the contrary, our review of print media reports suggests a growing governance deficit in the country’s financial sector. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for the country’s future growth as well as performance of the RMG sector.     

Emerging powers,soft power,and future of regional cooperation in South Asia

This article looks into the future of regional cooperation in South Asia in the light of two emerging powers: China and India focussing on how their rise would change the relationship in the region. The paper argues that China and India both are trying to enhance their spheres of influence forcing the states in the region to align with either of them in a binary framework of unstable equilibrium and uneasy coexistence rather than reinforcing the regional solidarity of SAARC. Such a competition between China and India and the putative interventionary efforts of Western powers and their agencies in the region are bound to bring implications of profound value for not just regional cooperation but for the individual destinies of the various states involved in the days ahead.     

系统动力学在区域经济可持续发展中的应用

本文简述了系统动力学和可持续发展的概念,将二者有机结合,并将系统动力学应用于区域经济的可持续发展中。     

网络经济与西部地区“追赶型经济”发展

以网络经济为核心的新经济的迅猛发展,为追赶型经济的发展带来了新的机遇与挑战.网络经济有助于西部地区发挥"后发优势".网络经济为西部地区加速追赶,实现跨越式发展提供了机遇.     

Land grabbing in post-Soviet Eurasia: the world’s largest agricultural land reserves at stake

‘Land grabbing’ in Africa by China, and other populous, high-income Asian countries such as South Korea, has received considerable attention, while land grabbing in post-Soviet Eurasia has gone largely unnoticed. However, as this article shows, foreign state and private companies are also acquiring vast areas of farmland in this region. The article first discusses the factors that make post-Soviet Eurasia such an attractive region for international investment, arguably encompassing much greater agricultural land reserves than most regions of sub-Saharan Africa or Asia. Second, in view of the use of media and web-based data in this article, the methodological limitations of researching land investments are discussed. Third, an overview is given of the processes of land accumulation and farm acquisition. Both domestic and international accumulation of land are dealt with in the domestic context of agricultural development and institutions. Furthermore, the main actors (investors) involved in land grabbing are distinguished (according to their country of origin and legal or institutional form). Fourth, the article outlines the main obstacles (and points of contention) concerning the emergence (and effectiveness/performance) of domestic, and especially international, agroholdings in the region. Some preliminary findings are presented on the possible effects of land grabbing on local populations in this region.