When random assignment fails: Some lessons from the Minneapolis Spouse Abuse Experiment

In this paper, we consider what may be done when researchers anticipate that in the implementation of field experiments, random assignment to experimental and control groups is likely to be flawed. We then reanalyze data from the Minneapolis Spouse Abuse Experiment in a manner that explicitly models violations of random assignment. As anticipated, we find far larger treatment effects than previously reported. The techniques developed should be useful in a wide variety of settings when random assignment is implemented imperfectly.     

当代中国文化形态及其走向

中国的改革开放和社会转型,带来了传统与现代、本土与外来的文化交汇,催生了各种不同的文化形态,这大致可分为主流文化、精英文化与大众文化三种形态。社会和谐发展的前提应该是主流文化、精英文化与大众文化良性互动。然而在全球化背景下,这三种文化形态内部关系紧张,同时精英文化与大众文化深受消费主义的影响,出现了精英文化商品化与大众价值观扭曲现象,这是今后我国社会主义文化发展繁荣亟需解决的重要课题。     

Strategic voting and effective representation thresholds: Evidence from three Spanish general elections

The extent of strategic voting in the Spanish general elections of 2000, 2004 and 2008 is estimated using a new measure of strategic incentives suitable for proportional representation systems that avoids some of the problems associated with lagged variables. Strategic behaviour increased from 12 to 33 per cent of the electoral base of the United Left Party, the major victim of strategic defection. This estimate is a conservative one as elite mobilisation is controlled for in the constituencies, which is unusual in the literature on strategic voting that uses regression‐based methods.     

Assessing Kaliningrad's Geostrategic Role: The Russian Periphery and A Baltic Concern

Recent developments in post-communist Europe and Latvia in particular have raised questions about political stability in new democracies there. This article argues for taking a long-term perspective on this problem in place of short-term judgments. In doing so, it makes special reference to the EU's political conditionality and its impacts on Latvia and then applies comparative lessons on democratic consolidation based on the concept of ‘partial regimes’. It becomes clear in this analysis that the consolidation process in Latvia has advanced over the past decade and more and, in this respect, the EU did have an important, though limited and rather specific, impact. Yet this process is still incomplete, with historical legacies being a major factor. The ethnic divide has also remained largely unresolved, party development problems have persisted and the public is still unconvinced by the actual democracy they see before them and is alienated by political elite behavior in particular. Hence, Latvia does not have a defective democracy as such, but further change is necessary before democratic consolidation may be achieved there.     

Perception of societal influence among civil society leaders – an elite perspective

ABSTRACT

This article explores the perception of societal influence of civil society leaders based on a survey study conducted in 2017 among leaders of Swedish civil society organizations. Civil society leaders represent organizations that are often based on and guided by religious, political, or cultural values and that often strive to achieve some sort of social change. To exercise influence on society is thus a crucial feature of civil society leaders. Drawing on elite theories, the article seeks to explain differences in the perception of influence by looking at the following factors: (1) personal qualities and resources such as age, gender, country of birth, education, and working experiences, (2) social networks and contacts with representatives of different institutions (media, government, etc.), and (3) organizational position and resources, including relations with public authorities. The analysis shows that two out of three surveyed leaders perceive they have great influence in society concerning the issues they work with. Among the factors explaining the perception of influence, we find being a leader of an organization at the regional level, being of older age, having leading representatives of the media in one’s personal network, and stating that one has great influence over the organization one leads.     

The 2017 election in Kenya: reimagining the past or introducing the future?

The new 2010 Kenya Constitution introduced a devolved system of government that has radically transformed the Kenyan polity. The political elite which operated primarily at the national level now encounters a new competitive political arena with the introduction of county governments under devolution. In particular, a new post of County Governor has surpassed in power calculations both the traditional MP and the new position of senator. In the 2013 elections, the focus was on the national arena; in 2017, all this will change.     

Communicating authoritarian elite cohesion

In this paper, we develop a theoretical framework to analyse the communicative imperatives authoritarian regimes face as a consequence of their self-inflicted opacities. The most important facts about the actors and factors that sustain authoritarian rule are unobservable. To demonstrate their power, authoritarian rulers have to render them visible. They have to dramatize their power and present on the front stage what they want people to know about the backstage of authoritarian politics. We conceptualize the communicative strategies of authoritarian rulers with a focus on the primary existential threats they face: the lateral threats that emanate from within the authoritarian elite. We illustrate dictators’ communicative repertoire with empirical material from communist Cuba from 2006 to 2011, during the critical juncture of leadership transition from Fidel Castro to his brother Raúl.     

Tactical coalition voting and information in the laboratory

Tactical coalition voting (TCV) is a balancing strategy where voters choose to vote for their second preferred party in order to influence the policy direction of the government coalition formed. In this paper, we experimentally evaluate the extent voters in a PR system engage in TCV. We find significant evidence that voters in the laboratory, even those not experienced with PR systems, choose strategically to affect post election coalitions using a balancing strategy, although the percentage of voters who do so is much less than that predicted by the theory. We also find that although voters who are less informed are less likely to use a balancing strategy, strategic motivations are still a factor in their behavior.     

有机化学实验CAI课件的制作与教学效果体会

采用现代化的教学手段探索有机化学实验教学改革,介绍了利用常用数字产品及软件等工具制作有机化学实验教学课件的方法。论述了多媒体课件的表现形式和表现方法,体现了开放式、讨论式、互动式和个性化教学的特点,充分调动了学生主动参与学习的积极性,变传统的被动式教学模式为主动、生动的教学形式,培养学生的实际动手能力和创新能力。     

Policy,office and votes: An experimental investigation of the dynamic aspect of party goals

Political parties face hard choices when balancing desires to influence public policy, to gain executive office and to win votes. The existing literature examining such party preferences has traditionally focused on rather static aspects of the parties, such as size, policy positions and the level of intraparty democracy. This article argues that party actors' sophisticated estimations of whether to enter into coalition can be affected by fluctuating public opinion, thereby having a more dynamic aspect. Drawing on a survey experiment on youth politicians in Norway, we test how perceived standing in the polls affects how politicians weigh up policy versus office and votes versus office. The experimental effect of perceived standings was investigated in addition to the respondents' positions within the party, as well as their parties' former governing history, political orientation and size. Results show that, in the presence of the treatment condition (party is perceived to do well in the polls), the preference for policy over office is lessened. We find no experimental effect for vote versus office. These results advance our understanding of the dynamic aspects of party goals and coalition formation.