房价上涨的途径——财政、人口与预期的再验证

在国家“六稳”、“六保”的政策目标下，稳定房价具有较大现实意义。基于中国267个地级市2006-2018年的面板数据，通过联立方程模型实证研究地方财政支出、人口迁移以及预期对房价的影响。结果显示，市场对房价上涨的预期是推升房价上涨的主要因素，此外，全国层面的房价受到地方财政支出资本化的正向作用，东、中部地区房价受到人口迁移数量的显著影响，西部地区房价受到第三产业占比的支撑。因此，稳定房价的关键途径是维持购房者的市场信心，确保人口流入有助稳定东、中部地区房价?确保第三产业发展则是 稳定西部房价的重要途径。     

A New Trend

正China's economic growth is stabilizing in the 7-8 percent range China’s gross domestic product(GDP)grew 7.8 percent in the third quarter,0.3percentage points higher than in the second quarter.Economic growth rate has been ranging from 7 to 8 percent since the second quarter of 2012.The fourth quarter of 2013 will be no exception.Therefore,the growth rate floating between 7 to 8 percent is not an accidental phenomenon but a periodical trend for the country.     

Fiscal transparency puzzle and electoral institutions: applying a 3Ds approach for tracking the action cycle in Egypt

This article aims at contributing to the discussion on the fiscal transparency puzzle. The authors challenge the idea that fiscal disclosure can directly increase fiscal accountability. Using an original data set at the level of individual members of parliament (MPs) in the Egyptian parliament, constructed from content analysis of budgetary discussions during the period 2000–10, it is shown that political incentives determined by a majoritarian electoral system curbed the willingness to check government fiscal behaviour, even among opposition MPs. This is because MPs still favoured pork-barrel behaviour to boost their re-election chances. Moreover, fiscal data disclosed could not be communicated to voters and the opposition showed a relatively higher avoidance against fiscal disclosure. The authors conclude that the electoral system is a dominant factor in shaping the final effect of transparency given its influence on the structure of political incentives.     

Comparing Central City Finances Using Fiscally Standardized Cities

Abstract

Because fiscal institutions and arrangements differ widely across US cities, it has until now been very difficult to conduct comparative analysis of spending, revenues, and debt in US cities. This paper describes a new city fiscal dataset, called fiscally standardized cities (FiSCs), that directly addresses the varying roles of municipal governments, counties, school districts, and special districts in the financing of central cities. By taking systematic account of fiscal data for all the major units of government in large cities over a long time period (1977–2012), the FiSC data permit investigation of a wide range of important comparative policy issues for cities. The article describes the methodology used to construct FiSCs, and gives a number of examples to illustrate the potential uses of the FiSC data. For example, it shows how spending comparisons between cities can be fundamentally misleading unless account is taken of the varying roles of overlapping governmental units. It also demonstrates how the FiSC data can be used to benchmark fiscal data for one city against comparable cities.     

促进共同富裕的财政政策选择

推动共同富裕对于经济增长具有重要意义,并会产生深远的社会影响。促进共同富裕进程中财 政政策作用的发挥及政策选择值得关注。研究认为,共同富裕既要实现总体富裕,也要高度重视合理的收入分 配。推进共同富裕要在保持宏观经济稳定、可持续增长的基础上实现收入分配公平,群体之间收入分配要做到“抬 低、扩中、限高”,实现东北、东部、中部、西部区域均衡发展,实现农村共同富裕,实现精神和物质共同富裕。 研究建议,应积极拓展完善税收、支出和社会保障三大财政政策,推动实现共同富裕。     

Identity,Solidarity, and Islam in Europe

Populists argue that Islamic immigrants are fundamentally different from Europeans. As evidence, they point to notions of religious and cultural identity. Such arguments have popular resonance. As more mainstream politicians pick up on these themes, they begin to take on an air of common sense. Nevertheless, they are mistaken. Europe has a long track record of reconciling competing identities. This has happened by focusing on patterns of interaction (solidarity) rather than obvious indicators of distinctiveness. Using the examples of the Netherlands and Turkey, this article illustrates the wide spectrum of European approaches to the challenge of getting different groups to share the same geographic space.     

A Tangled Web: Complexity and Inequality in the English Local Government Finance Settlement

The £29 billion formula grant stands at the heart of the English local government finance system. This transfer of resource from central to local government has, since 2006–07, been distributed using the so-called ‘four block model’. This extraordinarily complex formula-based funding mechanism aims to ensure that all local authorities are able to provide individuals with a broadly comparable level of public service – offering greatest support to local authorities with high service needs and/or low capacity to raise revenue. This paper outlines the structure and workings of the four block model and, drawing attention to key methodological shortcomings, explains why the resulting distribution of the formula grant is both arbitrary and inequitable. In particular it argues that key model parameters – specifically the need and resource equalisation proportions – are set in order to fulfil a particular funding outcome. This flies in the face of the basic tenets of resource allocation methodology in that, being outcome-led, the approach is clearly neither need-based nor impartial. The paper argues that the four block model fails to meet its own goal of fiscal equalisation, is likely to lead to increasing service disparities, and must be replaced as a matter of urgency.     

The Road to Good Governance: Via the Path Less Accountable? The Effectiveness of Fiscal Accountability in Liberia

Accountability mechanisms are touted as a path to “good governance.” But are accountability mechanisms a sure route to achieving the objectives of “good governance”? Limited case studies have offered inconsistent evidence (Blair, 2000 Blair, H. 2000. Participation and accountability at the periphery: Democratic local governance in sex countries. World Development, 28(1): 21–29. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Charlick, 2001 Charlick, R.B. 2001. Popular participation and local government reform.. Public Administration and Development, 21: 149–157. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Devas &; Grant, 2003 Devas, N. and Grant, U. 2003. Local government decision-making-citizen participation and local accountability: Some evidence from Kenya and Uganda. Public Administration and Development, 23: 307–316. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). But empirical evidence of the relationships among principles of good governance—high citizen participation, low levels of corruption, high-quality service delivery—and accountability mechanisms is lacking. We examine the effectiveness of accountability mechanisms in Liberia and find relationships between measures of county level fiscal accountability and measures of good governance do not always produce expected results, making fiscal accountability mechanisms no guarantee for achieving goals of good governance.     

A New Predictor of Local Financial Distress

The development of predictive models for financial distress is a recurring topic in both private and public contexts, although currently its repercussions are greater in the public sphere, where efforts are being made to define new warning systems for fiscal crises. The present study thus aims first to show the similarities and differences between the absolute and relative models based on a 10-point scale, in order to subsequently combine the positive aspects of both proposals to find a system that can determine local fiscal distress in a more robust way.

The results obtained show that the optimum predictive system is a slight variant of the model proposed by Kloha et al. (2005) Kloha, P., Weissert, C. S. and Kleine, R. 2005. Developing and testing a composite model to predict local fiscal distress. Public Administration Review, 65(3): 313–323. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. This variant consists of the inclusion of two indicators of financial independence proposed by Zafra-Gómez et al. (2009a) Zafra-Gomez, J. S., López-Hernández, A. M. and Hernández-Bastida, A. 2009a. Developing an alert system for local governments in financial crisis. Public Money &; Management, 29(3): 175–82. [Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] for which an alert threshold has been empirically determined.     

Hardening Budget Constraints: A Cross-National Study of Fiscal Sustainability and Subnational Debt

This study explores the financial sustainability of subnational governments in four different countries. Scholars argue that subnational fiscal capacity helps local governments deliver better public services and provide public goods, which in turn helps to promote economic growth. While administrative control by the central governments contributes to reducing moral hazard from the soft budget constraints, bottom-up strategies to manage fiscal profligacy also need attention. The study first provides understanding about the characteristics of central-local governance and management of subnational government debt of each country. Then, we test our hypotheses regarding local fiscal capacity and administrative control, including political-economic factors that may affect debt spending by local governments. Our findings show that subnational fiscal sustainability improves when the central governments have clear rules to intergovernmental transfers in place and more (market) liberal policies, meanwhile when subnational governments have a more fiscal capacity and less intergovernmental transfers they are able to manage their debt more soundly.