Unemployment,imprisonment, and the stability of punishment hypothesis: Some results using cointegration and error correction models

A version of the stability of punishment hypothesis is used to illustrate the concept of cointegration and its relationship to error correction models. The hypothesis is then tested and rejected using data from England and Wales. Finally, a dynamic time-series model relating imprisonment to convictions, crime, and Unemployment is developed and tested.The empirical results in this work are based upon those originally prepared for a paper to be given by the author and Steve Box at the meeting of the American Society of Criminology held in Montreal in November 1987. Steve Box died in September 1987 before it could be completed.The paper is dedicated to his memory and it is hoped that he would have approved its content, if not, perhaps, the dryness of its form.     

民间借贷：现状、影响及合法性探讨

近年来我国的民间借贷市场空前活跃，其在市场规模、表现形式、投资方向及借贷利率等方面呈现出新的特点。民间借贷在为中小企业解决融资难题、发挥积极作用的同时，也对借贷企业的健康发展、国家金融秩序及社会稳定造成了一定的负面影响。对民间借贷进行规制应先探讨民间借贷的合法性，这对推进民间借贷的规范化和法制化具有一定的理论和实践意义。     

Party survival in parliament: Explaining party durability in lower-house parliaments

Approximately 70 per cent of the parties emerging in the post-Second World War era failed to keep their seats in parliament. Party survival is an important issue, especially in parliamentary democracies, where parties are the means through which voters’ preferences are linked to government policy outputs. Using an event history modeling framework, and data from 37 democracies, covering 830 parties, this article analyses two questions regarding party durability. First, when do parties fail? Second, which parties survive longer? The article shows that most parties fail at the beginning of their lifespan, and disappear before the end of their fourth term in parliament. Moreover, it is found that moderate policy position, distinct ideology and participation in governing coalitions increase the duration of party survival, even when controlling for party size. This article contributes to the extensive literature about the electoral benefits of ideological moderation and distinct policy positions by showing the long-term benefits of these factors. Moreover, the long-term benefit of party participation in government in terms of survival overcomes the short-term cost of ruling.     

Debunking the myth of a “Traditional” gender gap in the electoral support for Silvio Berlusconi in Italy (1994–2013)

Despite increasing gender realignment in voting behavior of most Western democracies, women are usually believed to have disproportionally supported Silvio Berlusconi's right-wing party in Italy. Using a pooled dataset based on six post-election surveys (one for each general election between 1994 and 2013), we find only spurious evidence for such a traditional gender gap in voting. Going beyond a mere “gender gap” approach, we then look for possible intra-gender differentiation. We find that housewives tend to present those attitudes – voting for the center-right, more leader-oriented –, which were traditionally imputed to “women”. Showing the importance of this “intra-gender occupational gap”, we conclude that heterogeneity among women should be taken more seriously by research that combines gender and electoral studies.     

论所有人抵押权——基于对德国法和瑞士法的分析

所有人抵押权是所有人于自己的财产上存在的抵押权,它是近现代私法上的一项特殊制度。其中,德国法对此制度于较大范围内予以认可,规定了三种类型的所有人抵押权形态,并就每种形态的所有人抵押权的发生事由定有明文。瑞士法在所有人抵押权制度上更加严格地贯彻了顺位固定规则。要理解所有人抵押权的法律构成,有必要厘清其与顺位固定、顺位保留、抵押权的附随性(附从性)、对自己之物的权利及混同之间的关系。我国现行法制仅于混同的例外情形认可所有人抵押权的立场应予变更。为有利于我国不动产信用关系与金融资本信用关系的发展,我国应在较大范围内认可所有人抵押权,摒弃抵押权的不可分性规则,改采顺位固定规则。     

Bayesian hierarchical age-period-cohort models with time-structured effects: An application to religious voting in the US, 1972–2008

To examine dynamics of political processes using repeated cross-section data, effects of age, cohort, and time period have to be disentangled. I propose a Bayesian dynamic hierarchical model with cohort and period effects modeled as random walk through time. It includes smoothly time-varying effects of covariates, allowing researchers to study changing effects of individual characteristics on political behavior. It provides a flexible functional form estimate of age by integrating a semi-parametric approach in the hierarchical model. I employ this approach to examine religious voting in the United States using repeated cross-sectional surveys from 1972 to 2008. I find starkly differing nonlinear trends of de- and re-alignment among different religious denominations.     

论折旧基金对扩大再生产的贡献

折旧基金属于维持简单再生产的补偿基金，但折旧基金又具有扩大再生产的作用。对此问题，马克思和恩格斯进行过论述，并用数学方法作了具体分析。本文在马克思恩格斯论述的基础上，运用数学手段对折旧基金对扩大再生产贡献的数量规律作了进一步的阐述     

Circulación de modelos y centralidad de los códigos civiles en el derecho privado latinoamericano

This work presupposes the existence of a family of laws which can be situated in the extensive system of codified laws based on the Roman tradition, and within it a Latin American group, and seeks to organize the material within the context in which it has been produced, with the aim of achieving greater comprehension of the formation of the private law in Latin America, highlighting the models and influences used, the intervention of jurists and the significance it took on for the different societies, the characteristics of the mentioned process and the causes for its early or tardy consolidation.     

跨域治理的概念谱系与研究模型

跨域治理是指跨域事务的利益相关者，为了实现公共目标和解决共同危机所展开的合作与管理活动。在阐释跨域治理概念谱系的基础上，讨论了跨域治理的过程、结构与整合模型，以期从文献整理分析的角度对跨域治理进行深入的理解和探讨，并展望跨域治理研究的发展方向及前景。     

校园心罚现象评析

心罚也称精神虐待或心灵施暴,在当前中小学教育中不同程度地普遍存在着,因其隐蔽性常为人们所忽视。本文从心罚形式、消极后果,教师施行心罚的自身原因和给教师的建议等四个方面,对心罚现象作了比较深入的探讨,以唤起广大教师的重视,更好地推进素质教育。