Symposium on “The nationalization of electoral politics: Frontiers of research”

This editorial introduces the theme of the symposium which addresses the most recent advances in the field of the nationalization of electoral politics. After a decade of an increasing number of contribution in this field, the symposium takes stock of the diversity of applications of nationalization studies, the progress in data collection, and its innovative methods in designs including it as both a dependent and independent variable and analyzing it both for legislative and presidential elections. The editorial reviews the growth and diversification of the literature over time and illustrates in what directions it has evolved mapping out an increasingly rich and complex theory. It links the articles of the symposium to this evolution of the literature and discusses their innovative character.     

Structural change versus turnpike optimality: A Polish perspective

Using a modified dynamic IO model for Poland which allows taking into account actual trends observed in recently available statistical data we compare the rate of economic growth calculated for different growth paths resulting from the model. The goal of the research was to examine the distance between the actual structure of production and the structure on the turnpike and its impact on the economic growth of the economy under study. The results of the study indicate that the impact of structural change on output takes place in three general stages. The benefits of structural change do not outbalance the corresponding costs immediately, since it takes several periods until the growth rate of those paths which are closer to the von Neumann ray become larger than the corresponding growth rate of the benchmark growth path.     

How Measurement Error in Content Analysis and Self-Reported Media Use Leads to Minimal Media Effect Findings in Linkage Analyses: A Simulation Study

In the debate on minimal media effects and their causes, methodological concerns about measurement are rarely discussed. We argue that even in state-of-the-art media-effects studies that combine measures of media messages and media use (i.e., linkage analyses), measurement error in both the media content analysis and the media use self-reports will typically lead to severely downward-biased effect estimates. We demonstrate this phenomenon using a large Monte Carlo simulation with varying parameters of the content analysis and the survey study. Results show that measurement error in the content analysis and media use variables does indeed lead to smaller effect estimates, especially when the media messages of interest are relatively rare. We discuss these findings as well as possible remedies and implications for future research.     

暴力犯罪的媒体诱因与对策反思——规避模仿示范效应的新路径

媒体对暴力犯罪的不当报道，会对潜在犯罪者起到模仿示范效应。鉴于新闻传媒客观、如实反映事件的职业伦理，其应当于公众知情权与犯罪预防间寻求平衡。但此种平衡未必尽然体现为“冷处理”式的抑制，必要时，在恪守媒体报道“绝对禁区”的前提下，适度地对特定暴力犯罪予以“热处理”，不仅是无害的，而且，其本身即为规避模仿示范效应的另一种至关重要的途径。     

Age-Period-Cohort analysis: A design-based approach

This paper develops a design-based approach to identifying cohort effects in APC analyses. Cohort effects arise when one cohort is treated by a unique set of formative socialization experiences, which causes it to differ from other cohorts in relevant outcomes. APC analyses typically compare treated and untreated cohorts from a single population. Our approach introduces a second group—a control group, in which no unit is treated but that is otherwise similar to the first—and adapts difference-in-differences estimation to the APC framework. The approach yields two identification strategies, each based on transparent and testable assumptions. We illustrate how the method works and what is to be gained through three examples.     

Editor's note

This study applies Elisabeth Noelle‐Neumann's spiral of silence theory to the controversial issue of whether children with AIDS should be allowed to attend public school. The study tests the theory's hypotheses in light of two content analyses of the media's treatment of the issue. The findings offer tentative and qualified support for Noelle‐Neumann's theoretical propositions about the relationship between individuals' perceptions of the issue and the media's tenor of the issue; particularly that of television. The findings suggest the need to address the role of other agents of influence, including reference groups, and to use time‐based data to unravel the causal order of the relationships.     

Age,period and cohort analysis in a comparative context: Political generations and political participation repertoires in Western Europe

This paper presents a method for studying age-period-cohort effects in a comparative context where repeated cross-sectional data are available covering a suitably long period of time. The method consists in the application of multi-level models with country as the higher level of analysis and random coefficients to model variables which vary at the country-level. Additionally, the application of generalized additive models (GAMs) and generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) provides robust empirical tests of cohort categorizations applied in this and previous studies to estimate otherwise collinear effects. To illustrate the method, I derive and test the theory that generations will be differentiated in their patterns of participation based on the ascendancy of certain repertoires in the era of their political socialization.     

对影响我国服务业发展因素的实证分析

当今世界经济，尤其是发达国家的经济发展轨迹中显示：服务业已成为各国着重发展的重要产业。这使得各国学者对服务业发展影响因素和服务业发展模式的研究逐渐兴起。本文通过对我国1994--2008年间三类服务业数据进行计量回归，得出实证模型，分析出影响我国服务业发展的重要因素。     

从澳大利亚“警察管理发展培训项目”引发的对高级警官培训方式的思考

澳大利亚"警察管理发展培训项目"是培训、选拔高级警官的一项专门培训。分析该项目的实施过程,我们可以在教学设计、组织形式、教官选择和学员管理等方面吸收借鉴其成功的做法,不断加以改进,完善我们现有的培训方式,提高培训的效率和质量。     

论“附保护第三人作用的契约”

自德国产生“附保护第三人作用的契约”以来,其在德国的判例与学说中不断发展、繁荣。我国现也有不少学者在对其加以研究。其中最困难之处在于如何解释“附保护第三人作用的契约”与“债权相对性”之矛盾。笔者从契约效力根源的角度提出“系统契约论”,解释了“附保护第三人作用的契约”之理论根基,认为我国应引进此制度,并将其继续应用到“附保护第三人作用的契约”的构成要件、法律效果、与侵权法之边界等问题,也附带地以“系统契约论”解释了契约法上之其他问题。