Spatializing the future: financial expectations,EU convergence and the Eastern European Forex mortgage crisis

Existing accounts of failure to predict the financial crisis focus on the complexity of the financial system, and are less useful for understanding crises in non-securitized markets. We examine the roots of optimism leading up to the Eastern European mortgage crisis through the case of Hungary, and use recent theories of expectations, which understand them as both pragmatic and fictional practices that commonly incorporate narratives. Based on archival research and interviews with bankers, regulators and legislators, we demonstrate how the EU convergence narrative was central in forming optimistic expectations. Fusing the underspecified convergence process with an orientalist geographical imaginary, this narrative and its associated measures translated growing indebtedness as ‘catching up’ with Europe, de-emphasized exchange rate risk through a belief in European convergence and precluded crisis scenarios originating in the European Union. Our findings contribute to theories of how economic expectations are formed, stabilized and maintained by developing the concept of ‘spatializing the future’, denoting practices that handle uncertainty by charting the future as movement in concrete geographical or abstract space, along externally verifiable pathways.     

How Muslim Defenders Became “Blood Spilling” Crusaders: Adam Gadahn's Critique of the “Jihadist” Subversion of Al Qaeda's Media Warfare Strategy

Adam Gadahn's Abbottabad letter offers a rare opportunity to examine how this Al Qaeda Senior Leadership (AQSL) media operative and spokesman conceptualizes and executes media warfare. In this article, I first introduce, depict, and employ the author's Terrorist Quadrangle Analysis (TQA) as a useful heuristic for conceptualizing and representing the four interrelated components of the AQSL terrorist enterprise: political objectives, media warfare, terrorist attacks, and strategic objectives. This TQA construct is then employed to conceptualize Gadahn's media warfare acumen. Gadahn is shown to be an adept communications warfare operative who conscientiously disaggregates and evaluates key target audiences, messengers, messaging, and media. Gadahn's vehement critique of select “jihadi” groups, in particular Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP), al-Shabaab, and the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), is then described. Key here is how and why Gadahn denounces their indiscriminate, murderous terrorist attacks on Muslim non-combatant civilians and other protected persons as effectively subverting his intended AQSL media warfare strategy and undermining AQSL strategic and religio-political objectives. A concluding section briefly summarizes these chief findings, offers select implications for scholarship and counter-AQSL messaging strategy, and identifies study limitations.     

我国未来警务模式的选择

一个国家的社会治安是与该国现阶段社会结构的平稳和稳定程度相适应的。警务模式也要随着社会的发展、治安状况的变化而作出相应的调整。西方从1892年建立新警察体系以来,经历了四次警务改革,相继以制服化、专业化、现代化和社会化的警务理念,改变着警察行为。与这四次警务改革相对应,西方警务模式先后出现了"政治警务模式","合法警务模式","专业警务模式","反应式警务模式","服务与权变的警务模式"五个演变时期。随着社会的发展,我国未来的警务模式也不应是单一的,而应是具有中国特色的集合性警务模式体系。     

亚太地区安全架构:目标、条件与构想

中国领导人指出,"亚太地区经济合作架构众多,建立一个符合地区实际、满足各方需要的区域安全架构势在必行。"中国应当抓住目前的战略机遇,本着"主动谋划、积极进取"的精神,在亚太地区安全问题上扮演"概念设置国""议程设置国"的角色,在适当时机提出建立亚太区域安全架构的倡议。中国倡导并参与亚太安全架构的建设,有助于达到以下目标:整合并超越现有的地区安全机制;进一步发挥中国在整个亚太地区事务中的引领作用,同时推进"打造周边命运共同体"和"构建中关新型大国关系"两大目标;缓解中国在本地区的安全压力,冲淡美国的亚太安全同盟体系并最终使其转型;保障和促进"一带一路"建设;加强中国在亚太安全事务中的规则制订权;引导国内外舆论和公众正确理解新时期的国家安全观和国际合作观。中国以外的任何一个国家在近期内都不大可能主动提出关于亚太安全架构的倡议,而中国正式提出这一倡议的时机亦不成熟,拟首先明确自己的战略目标,厘清战略思路。     

论我国刑罚结构的不断完善——以《中华人民共和国刑法修正案(八)》为视角

综观我国刑罚结构的演变发展历程,可将其分为三种模式,即“倒三角”结构、“梭型”结构和“正三角”结构模式.伴随着我国刑事政策轻刑化的不断发展,以《中华人民共和国刑法修正案(八)》的颁布为标志,我国刑罚结构又进行了一次较为深刻和系统的调整与完善,其更加趋向于“正三角”结构模式.鉴于我国社会进步的发展度、司法实践的需求度以及社会公众的承受度,以《刑法修正案(八)》的相关规定为视角,在对我国刑罚结构进行较为深刻剖析的基础上,又对刑罚结构的进一步完善提出了一些新构想.     

习近平外交思想与中国外交哲学的新境界

习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想是21世纪的马克思主义。习近平外交思想是习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的重要组成部分,集中反映了当代中国化马克思主义在外交和国际关系领域的最新思想理论成果。习近平外交思想在价值取向上彰显鲜明中国特色,即旗帜鲜明地坚守中国共产党领导中国人民走中国特色社会主义道路与追求共产主义远大理想的初心,推动构建人类命运共同体,积极为人类现代化事业贡献中国智慧和中国方案。使坚持中国特色社会主义的初心与倡导涵盖资本主义国家的人类共同体意识形成理论自洽,是中国共产党人运用马克思"两个必然"思想与"两个决不会"思想,对当代世界与中国发展大势进行深刻洞察得出的重要理论结晶,是习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想和习近平外交思想从历史哲学高度对21世纪马克思主义做出的重大理论贡献,体现出深刻的理论思辨与理论创新精神。习近平外交思想富于鲜活的时代精神,集中体现在高扬和平与发展的时代主旋律、敏锐洞察百年未有之大变局的历史脉动、以新型全球化理念积极引导全球治理等方面。习近平外交思想使中国外交在理论和实践上得到升华,开辟了中国外交哲学的新境界,是新时代中国特色大国外交的强大思想武器与行动指...     

浅析我国看守所制度的改革进路——以看守所与监狱的比较为切入点的分析

看守所内不断曝光的在押人员非正常死亡事件以及林林总总的各种问题深刻暴露出我国现行看守所管理体制存在的种种弊端,引发了公众对看守所的广泛关注和思考,改革的呼声不断高涨,看守所制度的改革势在必行。通过看守所与监狱的比较,可以很清晰地发现我国看守所在职能、隶属机关、法律规定以及人权保障等诸多方面的严重不足,同时也为我国看守所制度的改革指明了方向,确立了合理的改革进路。     

西方学者对资本主义新发展及其未来的最新研究

西方学者用“数字资本主义”、“赌场资本主义”、“涡轮资本主义”、“全球资本主义”、“新帝国主义”、“金融垄断资本主义”、“消费资本主义”等生动描绘了资本主义的最新发展及其特征。在此基础上,西方学者还进一步分析了资本主义在发展中所蕴藏的不可克服的自我否定的内在矛盾和历史趋势,指出了资本主义衰亡崩溃的未来命运,并研究了以“后资本主义社会”学说和“新的历史蓝图”构想为代表的替代资本主义的方案选择。对于西方学者这些关于资本主义未来的新看法,我们应进行辩证分析和研究。     

The counter-hegemonic role of civil society: Palestinian–Arab NGOs in Israel

This paper deals with the causes and impact of the rise in the number of Palestinian–Arab Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) in Israel in the last two decades. It provides a multi-level model that combines economic, political and cultural factors to explain the shifts in Palestinian-Arab political mobilization in Israel and as a result to the rise of a complex network of Arab NGOs. The paper demonstrates the way in which the civil institutions and their intensive involvement in public social affairs generate social capital that has internal as well as external political impact. Arab civil society institutions, which operate mainly separately from civil institutions of the Jewish majority, assist in the empowerment and the development of Arab society. They provide services in different fields, such as education, health, and planning. They also advocate and lobby for the rights of the Arab citizens inside Israel and internationally. Arab civil society institutions also provide information necessary for political mobilization, identity formation, and cultural preservation. In this framework the paper claims that they play a counter-hegemonic role vis-à-vis the Israeli state. However, the paper also claims that the broad advocacy and lobbying activity of Arab civil institutions did not manage to fully democratize Israeli policies towards Arab society, demonstrating the centrality of state identity and power structure when it comes to democratization processes. On a different level, the paper reveals that, although the Palestinian–Arab NGOs network has managed to lead to a liberalization process within Arab society, this process is partial and selective.