Groups,Decision Rules,and Negotiation Outcomes: Simulating the Negotiator's Dilemma

The negotiator's dilemma is a vexing problem (structurally similar to the prisoner's dilemma), but it is made more complicated by the fact that many negotiations involve teams of negotiators. Although it is widely recognized that the behavior of groups of people can deviate in important ways from the behavior of individuals, the implications of this for the negotiator's dilemma are unclear. For this article, I have used a computer simulation to explore the impact of different decision rules (majority rule, consensus, and weakest link) on how the approach of groups to negotiations might differ. The results suggest that the use of different decision rules can greatly complicate negotiations. While the majority rule is quite versatile in multiple contexts, a pairing of weakest link and consensus decision rules is highly problematic for finding a negotiated settlement.     

优化吉林省产业结构促进经济发展方式转变

优化产业结构对促进经济发展方式转变具有重要的现实意义。本文分析了吉林省产业结构的现状及存在的问题,提出了加快改造传统产业,大力推进农业现代化进程,发展新兴产业和先进的制造业,优化产业布局,发展现代化服务业体系以及构建绿色发展的产业体系等优化产业结构的对策,以期为促进吉林省经济发展方式转变有所裨益。     

Representatives of the public? Public opinion and interest group activity

Although scholars have long speculated about how organised interests link the public to decision makers, there has actually been little empirical research on this important element of democratic theory. This important gap in the literature is addressed in this article by examining, in addition to other supply‐side and demand‐side factors, whether groups mobilise on issues in policy areas that are regarded as salient by the public. Based on an analysis of 4,501 contributions in 142 European Commission online consultations, it is found that organised interests potentially can act as a transmission belt between the public and decision makers. Although the results vary to some degree by issues, higher rates of mobilisation are found on those issues that fall within policy areas that are regarded as salient by the general public and those with consequences for budgetary spending.     

Terrorism in Colombia: Logic and Sources of a Multidimensional and Ubiquitous Phenomenon

This article examines contemporary uses of terrorism in Colombia. Combining an historical analysis with the most complete database available on political violence, we illustrate how terrorism in Colombia constitutes a specific strategy that can be distinguished from other manifestations of violence. We argue that Colombia's non-state armed groups have turned terrorism into a pivotal element of their repertoires of action. These parties have not only increased their reliance on this strategy and introduced more refined forms such as de-territorialized terrorism, but also have specialized in particular terrorist attacks that suit their general objectives. While paramilitary groups rely mostly on massacres and forced disappearance, guerrillas concentrate on agitational terrorism including kidnappings and indiscriminate bombings.     

The Mundane Experience of Political Culture

In light of the foreign interference in the 2016 U.S. elections, the present research asks the question of whether the digital media has become the stealth media for anonymous political campaigns. By utilizing a user-based, real-time, digital ad tracking tool, the present research reverse engineers and tracks the groups (Study 1) and the targets (Study 2) of divisive issue campaigns based on 5 million paid ads on Facebook exposed to 9,519 individuals between September 28, 2016, and November 8, 2016. The findings reveal groups that did not file reports to the Federal Election Commission (FEC)—nonprofits, astroturf/movement groups, and unidentifiable “suspicious” groups, including foreign entities—ran most of the divisive issue campaigns. One out of six suspicious groups later turned out to be Russian groups. The volume of ads sponsored by non-FEC groups was 4 times larger than that of FEC groups. Divisive issue campaigns clearly targeted battleground states, including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where traditional Democratic strongholds supported Donald Trump by a razor-thin margin. The present research asserts that media ecology, the technological features and capacity of digital media, as well as regulatory loopholes created by Citizens United v. FEC and the FEC’s disclaimer exemption for digital platforms contribute to the prevalence of anonymous groups’ divisive issue campaigns on digital media. The present research offers insight relevant for regulatory policy discussion and discusses the normative implications of the findings for the functioning of democracy.     

Macroeconomic Policies and Agricultural Terms of Trade,Bangladesh, 1952–2005

Agricultural prices in Bangladesh have had a tendency to rise at a faster rate than industrial prices since the early 1950s. The resulting rising trend in the agricultural terms of trade has been pronounced since the mid-1980s when Bangladesh introduced IMF- and World Bank-supported deregulatory economic reforms. This rising trend in the agricultural terms of trade is inconsistent with the Prebisch-Singer thesis in the context of domestic economy, which suggests a secular deterioration in the terms of trade for primary products vis-à-vis manufactured products. It is, however, consistent with the view of classical economists who saw the possibility of an upward trend in the terms of trade for agricultural products (food) because of diminishing returns in agriculture. In fact, the classical idea of the rising terms of trade for primary products makes sense in a land-constrained growing economy with increasing population, such as Bangladesh, which remained semi-closed until the mid-1980s. This article reviews macroeconomic policies in Bangladesh since the 1950s, examines the time-series properties of agricultural prices, industrial prices and the agricultural terms of trade and draws inference on the issue whether the agricultural sector was squeezed systematically by turning the terms of trade against agriculture for industrialisation of the country.     

Authoritarian Co-optation in the Age of Globalisation: Evidence from Hong Kong

The existing literature on authoritarian survival, implicitly or explicitly, assumes that political challenges faced by authoritarian regimes are all domestic. I argue that globalisation exposes authoritarian regimes to new sources of threat. In particular, capital mobility forces authoritarian regimes to deal with not only those who dare to voice out dissatisfaction, but also those who exit. While repression may be the best strategy to silence the vocal, co-optation would be a more effective tool to retain the runaway. It is, however, often impossible to co-opt all the capital owners. As such, authoritarian regimes have to be selective when choosing co-optation targets. I argue that authoritarian regimes would co-opt renowned firms because these firms yield the greatest demonstration effect. Hong Kong provides an interesting case to illustrate my arguments. Beijing strategically co-opted the stakeholders of renowned firms in Hong Kong in order to solve the city's pervasive confidence crisis prior to 1997. I test my arguments with data on firms listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. I find that firms owned by well-known and prestigious elite families were more likely to build political connections with Beijing. To test the causal linkage more rigorously, I use both the genetic matching and instrumental variable approaches. The empirical results provide strong support to my arguments.     

Poderes fácticos,comunicación y gobernabilidad: un acercamiento conceptual

The category of factual powers has become a fashionable term. Beyond observable differences in the journalistic, academic or political interests of the scholarly approaches to the topic, the author considers that it is possible to affirm that this question is inextricably related to the issue of democracy, and specifically its viability and governability. This article is framed within this analytic and contextual perspective -factual powers, democracy and governability. Given that the category has not a univocal meaning, after drawing basic differences among the various interest groups, pressure groups and factual powers, it characterizes those emerging social actors capable to dispute the power of formal institutions and analyzes the particular composition of the mass media.     

A strategic view of South African trade policy in relation to the future global trading environment

This paper puts forward a strategic view of what South African trade policy should be doing in relation to the future global trading environment. The future is uncertain, but if the past is prologue, South African trade policy needs to be positioned for a continuation of the commodity cycle, and to exploit markets in emerging economies, including Africa, more fully. Simultaneously, it needs policies to spur labour-intensive services and manufacturing exports, both because these will be needed if commodity markets are less robust and because of their employment-creating potential. South Africa's current strategy, however, is inflexible, heavily focused on domestic concerns and is in danger of placing South African exporters at a disadvantage in accessing the growing emerging economies. It also gives rise to an inherent tension between the interests of South Africa and the African region in trade negotiations. Having as the central tenet of trade policy a commitment to deal with tariffs on a case-by-case basis will not serve South Africa well in the global economy that is likely to emerge over the next 15 years. A simpler tariff structure would facilitate the conclusion of free trade agreements and actually make industrial policy more effective.     

Does Participation in Policymaking Enhance Satisfaction with the Policy Outcome? Evidence from Switzerland

This article investigates the benefit of participation in policymaking. Based on data from interviews with various interest groups, private organisations, and representatives of regions that had been involved in recent policymaking processes in Switzerland, this study analyses the relationship between participation and satisfaction with the policy outcome. The study looks at two different aspects of outcome satisfaction: perceived consensus of a decision and preference attainment. The results show that the level of participation is related to both aspects of outcome satisfaction but that the strength of association is dependent on the type of interest group and the level of conflict among the groups participating in the decision‐making process.