Assessing Stability and Change in Criminal Offending: A Comparison of Random Effects, Semiparametric, and Fixed Effects Modeling Strategies

An important theoretical problem for criminologists is an explanation forthe robust positive correlation between prior and future criminaloffending. Nagin and Paternoster (1991) have suggested that the correlationcould be due to time-stable population differences in the underlyingproneness to commit crimes (population heterogeneity) and/or thecriminogenic effect that crime has on social bonds, conventionalattachments, and the like (state dependence). Because of data andmeasurement limitations, the disentangling of population heterogeneityand state dependence requires that researchers control for unmeasuredpersistent heterogeneity. Frequently, random effects probit models havebeen employed, which, while user-friendly, make a strong parametricassumption that the unobserved heterogeneity in the population follows anormal distribution. Although semiparametric alternatives to the randomeffects probit model have recently appeared in the literature to avoid thisproblem, in this paper we return to reconsider the fully parametric model. Viasimulation evidence, we first show that the random effects probit modelproduces biased estimates as the departure of heterogeneity from normalitybecomes more substantial. Using the 1958 Philadelphia cohort data, we thencompare the results from a random effects probit model with a semiparametricprobit model and a fixed effects logit model that makes no assumptions aboutthe distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We found that with this dataset all three models converged on the same substantive result—evenafter controlling for unobserved persistent heterogeneity, with models thattreat the unobserved heterogeneity very differently, prior conduct had apronounced effect on subsequent offending. These results are inconsistentwith a model that attributes all of the positive correlation between priorand future offending to differences in criminal propensity. Sinceresearchers will often be completely blind with respect to the tenabilityof the normality assumption, we conclude that different estimationstrategies should be brought to bear on the data.     

国家创新体系:穷国追赶富国的加速器

国家创新体系的涵义和作用 ;中国、欧洲、日美国家创新体系的回顾 ;我国的国家创新体系之建构 :一是思想意识形态体系 ,二是经济运行体系 ,三是政治法律制度体系     

论我国政府职能的转变——以政府行政手段的转变为研究视角

当前，我国政府在运用行政手段对社会经济进行管理和调节时还存在着较多的问题，影响了国家经济的正常运行，行政手段的转变成为必然。实现我国政府行政手段转变的路径主要有六个方面：宏观调控与微观管理相结合；有限广度与合理深度相结合；政府主导与社会参与相结合；行政成本与行政绩效相结合；刚性行政与柔性行政相结合；依法行政与行为救济相结合。     

利与弊：评公诉人“一身兼二职”

公诉人在庭审中"一身兼二职"是司法实践的一贯做法,但从立法修改的精神看,公诉人的这种做法不仅没有必要,而且在具体操作中困难重重。因此,为实现司法公正,这种"一身兼二职"的做法亟待改变。     

辩论主义:溯源与变迁——民事诉讼中当事人与法院作用分担的再思考

强调当事人自我责任的辩论主义是19世纪自由主义思潮在民事诉讼中的反映。辩论主义提供的只是关于民事诉讼基本构造的指导性法理,而不是彻底否定法院职权探知的理由。在辩论主义的百年变迁中,始终伴随着对其内涵的全面限制及法院协助当事人提供事实与证据义务的普遍强化。我国《民事诉讼法》在确立辩论主义原则时,应重视在诉讼资料收集层面当事人与法院的协作,强化法院的实体性诉讼指挥义务并赋予辩论主义新的内涵。     

Assessing Readiness to Change among Perpetrators of Intimate Partner Violence: Analysis of Two Self-report Measures

Recent interest in the construct of motivation to change among male perpetrators of intimate partner violence (IPV) has led to development of two self-report measures of this construct: the University of Rhode Island Change Assessment for Domestic Violence (URICA-DV; Levesque et al. 2000) and the Safe at Home Inventory (SAH; Begun et al. 2003). We examined the internal structure of these instruments using confirmatory and exploratory factor analyses in a sample of 199 male IPV perpetrators waiting to begin court-mandated batterer intervention programs. Results indicated that the scales had adequate internal consistency. However, using confirmatory factor analyses, the hypothesized structural models of each instrument fit the data poorly. Subsequent models suggested by a series of exploratory factor analyses failed to improve model fit substantially for both scales. For the URICA-DV, a 3-factor model including items from the Precontemplation, Contemplation, and Action subscales fit the data adequately. No acceptable model fit could be found for the SAH. Intercorrelations among similar subscales across the two inventories suggested only a modest degree of intercorrelation (r’s = 0.16–0.52), and a factor structure more dependent on scale of origin than item latent content, suggesting that the scales assess different facets of the readiness to change construct. These results suggest that before the stages of change construct can be fully applied to the IPV area, more research and evaluation are needed on how to accurately assess abuser readiness to change.     

The “Science of Science Policy”: reflections on the important questions and the challenges they present

Developing the “Science of Science Policy” will require data collection and analysis related to the processes of innovation and technological change, and the effects of government policy on those processes. There has been much work on these topics in the last three decades, but there remain difficult problems of finding proxies for subtle concepts, endogeneity, distinguishing private and social returns, untangling cumulative effects, measuring the impact of government programs in a true “but for” sense, and sorting out national and global effects. I offer observations on how to think about these issues. This paper was presented as the Keynote Address at the NSF Workshop on Advancing Measures of Innovation: Knowledge Flows, Business Metrics, and Measurement Strategies, Arlington, VA, June 2006.     

累进假释制：监狱行刑范式的变更构想——基于完善现行“直捷式”假释范式的省思

假释是我国刑事法律体系的重要内容，又是监狱行刑的重要奖励制度。现行的假释制度，拘泥于传统的“直捷式”的范式，幅度有限，比例受控，未能充分发挥出假释的矫正功能、社会功能和预防功能。因此，应当拓展假释的范式，建立旨在提高改造质量的累进式假释制。累进式假释制是对现行“直捷式”假释制度的变更与完善，与现行的法理精神、监狱刑罚执行的程序规定相通，具有可行性和可操作性，不失为一条解放思想，加大落实“首要标准”力度，拓宽行刑范式的重要路径。     

以自主创新促进国民经济又好又快发展

创新型国家的实践昭示，创新对于经济增长的贡献率与日俱增，以创新依靠型取代资源依赖型增长模式业已成为发展路径的必然选择。资源性约束与增长模式惯性成为中国国民经济又好又快发展的巨大障碍：人均资源短缺，资源消耗量大，产出效率比较低。从广义的创新主体视域观之，首先应树立全社会致力于自主创新的自信心，妥善处理政府与企业的互动关系，充分发挥政府对于自主创新的主导作用，以及大力发挥企业作为自主创新的主体作用，最终实现我国经济发展模式由要素驱动型向创新驱动型的嬗变。     

从预期社会化的角度看大学新生的角色转变

大学新生正在实现由高中生向大学生的角色转变,从预期社会化的角度去分析大学新生角色转变中存在的问题,有利于他们顺利地实现角色转变,具有重要的意义。