谈目标轨迹在侦查思维中的应用

目标轨迹,是指与刑事案件相关的物证和信息,依据发生的时间顺序,建立方向性的连接,构成点与射线组成的图形。目标轨迹能够将事物的过去、现在和将来联系起来,是侦查思维的外化和表现,它通过对犯罪嫌疑人实施犯罪阶段前后的活动情况进行分析、研究,有助干侦查人员把握侦查的主动权,提高侦查工作效能。文章从侦查思维的角度出发,阐释了目标轨迹在侦查工作中的价值、作用和意义。     

Winners, Losers, and Efficiency: Achieving Multiple Goals in Japan's Financial System Reforms

When giving policy advice, economists often proceed as if efficiency is the only valid social goal. Although efficiency is important, we argue that single-minded pursuit of it is counterproductive. It unnecessarily erects political hurdles to the enactment of efficiency-enhancing reforms because policy proposals that ignore valid, nonefficiency concerns are more likely to meet political and bureaucratic resistance. Moreover, such resistance may be avoided. A number of design principals can be employed to craft proposals that address political goals without abandoning efficiency. We describe three classes of principles: creative design of market mechanisms, maintenance of marginal incentives, and compensation for losers.We then illustrate their practical application in the context of Japanese financial-sector deregulation. This policy area usefully illustrates the importance of considering multiple goals in policy design. While efficiency is a frequently expressed goal, Japan's continued policy paralysis indicates that the bureaucratic and political goals of major stakeholders make the straightforward deregulation of financial markets difficult to achieve. We do not purport to resolve the entrenched barriers to economic reform in Japan, but to the extent that we identify and address valid nonefficiency goals, the conclusions of the analysis are relevant.     

邓小平效率公平思想的当下解读

"效率优先,兼顾公平"没有全面准确地体现邓小平同志的思想和党在分配问题上的指导原则。"效率优先,兼顾公平"尽管促进了社会财富增长,但也导致了居民收入差距扩大,使社会公平问题日益凸显。只有倡导"兼顾效率与公平"的理念,加强正确的政策引导,坚持高尚的价值导向,强化对非正常因素的调控,才能真正实现效率与公平的辩证统一,真正实现社会的进步与发展。     

浦东新区行政审批制度改革的现状与路径分析

经过四轮行政审批制度改革,浦东新区改革在审批事项的清理和审批方式的变革等方面取得了显著成效,但在行政体制、审批机制、审批效能和政府职能转变等方面仍存在一些困难和问题。为此,要以推进浦东综合配套改革试点为契机,进一步深化行政审批制度改革,努力建设公共服务型政府。     

优质旅游有效供给因素对我国旅游产业效率的影响及区域差异

优质旅游是新时代我国旅游产业发展的必然选择。通过采用三阶段DEA模型等方法,从支撑因素、产业发展及消费需求三个维度构建优质旅游有效供给的环境变量,并采用面板数据实证分析了优质旅游有效供给因素对我国旅游产业效率的影响与区域发展差异。研究结果表明,优质旅游有效供给环境变量对我国旅游产业效率影响显著,其中支撑因素水平和旅游消费水平促进效率提升,产业发展在一定程度上抑制效率增长;目前我国优质旅游有效供给总体水平不高,且不同区域及省份之间表现出一定差异。因此,应通过进一步优化支撑要素水平、建立旅游投资总量调控及质量监督机制、制定积极的消费引导政策、缩小区域差距等,促进产业效率改进,提高优质旅游有效供给总体水平。     

Only a Matter of Time? The Role of Criminal Competence in Avoiding Arrest

While prior research has shown that the probability of detection plays a role in the decision-making of many offenders, much less is known on offenders’ relative success in avoiding arrest. In this study, we draw from detailed criminal career data on 172 offenders involved in lucrative criminal activities to examine the role of criminal competence in the probability of being arrested in a given month. We examine a particular aspect of competence, criminal efficiency, which is defined as the ability to earn a relatively large amount of money for each crime committed. Our research design allows us to disentangle the effect of criminal efficiency as a static trait of offenders from the dynamic variations in efficiency that offenders experience over time. Results show that efficiency is a strong, negative predictor of arrest, both at the static and dynamic levels.     

Use of pepper spray in policing: retrospective study of situational characteristics and implications for violent situations

Pepper spray (OC) is a policing tool aimed to prevent or stop aggressive behavior by quickly and temporarily incapacitate without injuring. To date, few studies have investigated OC’s operational usefulness and limitations. OC reduced violent behavior in 93% of the 936 incidents investigated. However, the operative range was often <2 m and it took between 3 and 5 s of spraying before obtaining effect, partly owing to the difficulties of hitting a small, sometimes erratically moving target. Collateral hits were noted in 24% of the incidents, whereof 90% were other officers. Noteworthy, in 21% of incidents officers put themselves at large personal risk by using OC at close range against people armed with lethal weapons. Hence, OC emerges as a suitable tool for handling low threat situations but lacks key traits to ensure safe and efficient policing of high threat situations, e.g., handling armed assailants.     

政治特性、效率误区与发展空间--非政府组织的现实主义理性审视

非政府组织的乐观主义者在强调该类组织对政府失灵和市场失灵的有益补充时,也或多或少地陷入了两个误区即忽视了其组织具有的政治性特性,并对其组织效率给予了过高的期望.试图从现实主义的视角,来阐述非政府组织作为一种相对独立并拥有一定社会基础的民间组织所具有的政治功能和作用,以及在组织效率方面可能存在的缺失.并认为,非政府组织对双重失灵的补充性,以及其政治特性和效率缺失,共同构成了其组织与政府之间存在的复杂关系,这种复杂关系在相当程度上决定了非政府组织发展空间的限度.     

我国财政绩效预算管理中存在的问题与对策

绩效预算是一种新的预算办法。我国在研究引进过程中存在认识上的误区,缺乏有针对性的制度规范,相关理论和实践不足,基础较为簿弱,科学化程序不足。文章认为应尽快制定相应的法律法规,建立正确的激励机制,构建科学的评价机制,做好宣传、培训、试点工作。     

政府干预与劳动者权益--兼与王一江先生商榷

最低工资制度在中国的实施是有效的,并不会出现劳动经济学理论规范分析得出的"获益者是被覆盖部门,损失者是未覆盖部门"这种现象.主要原因是,中国规范部门的工资高于均衡工资,更高于最低工资;中国不规范部门,实际上是雇主垄断型劳动力市场.政府应该干预劳动力市场、劳动关系的运行,政府干预的价值取向是,确立劳动者主体地位、追求经济效率.